SabreAce33 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I have never wished so hard for a dry slot over myself. My basement doesn't need the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Very good points. "Flirting" with the dry slot is sort of analogous to flirting with a supermodel. You can easily get burned, but IF all goes well, it also can result in the night of your life On a more serious level, you *need* to be near it to attain the potential instability aloft, *but* cannot be too far into it (dry slot extending to far down in the atmosphere) where you have no moisture reaching the -10C, which often times is approximated ~700 mb give or take 50 or so mb. So ideally, you want to see some drying above 700 mb, but not down to or (especially) below 700 mb. In the absence of CI, as you noted, CSI can play out, and do so (often times) farther w-nw-n of the dry slot where the static stability aloft is still weakening, yet not as much so (certainly not to the degree that would support upright convection). You are now my favorite met with that analogy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 19z RAP, if you choose to accept it, has ~1.5" QPF line just south of DCA at 13z (8am) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The HRRR is beautiful... DC 6" at 4am and 4-6" region wide with a 45 dB band over DC at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My goodness. I can't wait for high res. between midnight and 5am is a beatdown of epic proportions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NWS seems to believe it's going to look more like last night's Euro given current obs... A COMPARISON OF 12Z/18Z RAOBS TO INITIALIZATION OF THE 12Z MODELSAND THEIR 6-H FORECASTS INDICATE THE GFS/NAM WERE TOO FLAT WITH THELOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS ANDDOWNSTREAM THERMAL RIDGE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SATELLITE WATERVAPOR LOOP INDICATED THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALREADYCLOSING OVER ERN NE-KS...WHICH WAS EARLIER/FASTER THAN MOST OF THE12Z GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED. THESE ERRORS PROVIDE EVIDENCE TOWARD AMORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW...CLOSER TO THE PAST FEW RUNSOF THE ECMWF. THE LOW TRACKING RIGHT UP THE COASTLINE WOULD SHIFTTHE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE AND I-81CORRIDOR...WHERE ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ATTHE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FCST SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE INCREASED TO10-14 INCHES FROM THE FAR WRN SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE BACK WESTTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THIS WESTWARD TRACK WOULD ALSO YIELD MOREMIXING WITH SLEET/RAIN FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE TRANSITION ISEXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE TNGT IN SRN MD AND THU MRNG NEAR I-95. ALLRAIN OR RAIN/IP MIX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THU AFTN FOR THESEAREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 19z RAP, if you choose to accept it, has ~1.5" QPF line just south of DCA at 13z (8am) Well, considering that this is the highres panel through 7am...my god man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The only things I can think of that could ruin a 10"+ event in DC is: 1. If the dry slot is more assertive, pushing best snow making/bands NW of DC. 2. The "steamroll" stays separate of the incoming negative-tilt, and then it begins to accelerate due to its convective process. This would limit the amount of time some of the great bands can stay over any one location. That's about it, as far as I can see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here is the NAM 4km, keep in mind it very often over does precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 HM what on earth is NWS thinking with this all rain changeover? seems bullheaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The only things I can think of that could ruin a 10"+ event in DC is: 1. If the dry slot is more assertive, pushing best snow making/bands NW of DC. 2. The "steamroll" stays separate of the incoming negative-tilt, and then it begins to accelerate due to its convective process. This would limit the amount of time some of the great bands can stay over any one location. That's about it, as far as I can see... What about the last night Euro type solution with a lot of mixing tomorrow? I know that's not the prime time for precip, but wouldn't that also kill the size (or existence) of the back-end thumping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Unless I missed something in the last few pages there wasn't any discussion about the 12Z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The only things I can think of that could ruin a 10"+ event in DC is: 1. If the dry slot is more assertive, pushing best snow making/bands NW of DC. 2. The "steamroll" stays separate of the incoming negative-tilt, and then it begins to accelerate due to its convective process. This would limit the amount of time some of the great bands can stay over any one location. That's about it, as far as I can see... mixing early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 wow LWX just wrote a huge buzzkill for anyone I-95 and east... Any mets in here weigh in on their disco? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 zwyts, euro sees on its own with the far West track, all short term high res mods are east of it, not sure why NWS is using euro as a crutch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You guys would probably like the SPC WRF. Pretty much agree with HM. Just watch the DS that is going to want to zoom in to the NW, but come to a halt very near DC I think. Second is any WCB type convection robbing this thing..but I agree it doesn't seem to be a March 2013 deal there..at least now. Just have to watch that the WCB omega bomb precip doesn't peal NE. Sort of worry near I-95 about DS and mixing, but 10-15 miles means everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 wow LWX just wrote a huge buzzkill for anyone I-95 and east... Any mets in here weigh in on their disco? huh? They say we would mix tomorrow morning which has been on the table with 99% of runs and discussed here ad infinitum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NWS seems to believe it's going to look more like last night's Euro given current obs... A COMPARISON OF 12Z/18Z RAOBS TO INITIALIZATION OF THE 12Z MODELS AND THEIR 6-H FORECASTS INDICATE THE GFS/NAM WERE TOO FLAT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND DOWNSTREAM THERMAL RIDGE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALREADY CLOSING OVER ERN NE-KS...WHICH WAS EARLIER/FASTER THAN MOST OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED. THESE ERRORS PROVIDE EVIDENCE TOWARD A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW...CLOSER TO THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF. THE LOW TRACKING RIGHT UP THE COASTLINE WOULD SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE AND I-81 CORRIDOR...WHERE ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FCST SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE INCREASED TO 10-14 INCHES FROM THE FAR WRN SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE BACK WEST TO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THIS WESTWARD TRACK WOULD ALSO YIELD MORE MIXING WITH SLEET/RAIN FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE TNGT IN SRN MD AND THU MRNG NEAR I-95. ALL RAIN OR RAIN/IP MIX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THU AFTN FOR THESE AREAS. Shenandoah Valley will be buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 huh? They say we would mix tomorrow morning which has been on the table with 99% of runs and discussed here ad infinitum They actually say change to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 zwyts, euro sees on its own with the far West track, all short term high res mods are east of it, not sure why NWS is using euro as a crutch. ?? The euro gives me and you 6" by dawn...every model has mixing issues...There are hundreds of posts discussing this storm...if people cant follow along, I dont know what to tell you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 They actually say change to rain YES...That has been discussed here in 1000 posts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Anyways enjoy it there. Hope it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 They actually say change to rain Yup, I saw that too. Seems like a really ballsy call. Every model but the euro seems to say otherwise..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Anyways enjoy it there. Hope it works out. Thanks man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 They actually say change to rain The discussion almost looks like it is from yesterdays model runs. They think the models are too far east and are favoring a more west track, maybe they are still scared from March's bust. The 4-8 inches for DC or 7-12 in MoCo still could verify, it'll just be on the very high end at 8 inches.... but yeah, I'm surprised they didn't go with a 6-10 or 6-12 for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 zwyts, euro sees on its own with the far West track, all short term high res mods are east of it, not sure why NWS is using euro as a crutch. If you recall, their reasoning was discussed in here the last few days. The Euro was coming farther west because it was phasing earlier. They are now showing that phasing happening when the Euro said it would, hence why they are buying it's 850 track. Believe me, I hope they are wrong and we still get our major front end thump. Truthfully, I think we will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo5252 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well Calvert may mix, but I will enjoy my 24 degrees right now and as long as I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You guys would probably like the SPC WRF. Pretty much agree with HM. Just watch the DS that is going to want to zoom in to the NW, but come to a halt very near DC I think. Second is any WCB type convection robbing this thing..but I agree it doesn't seem to be a March 2013 deal there..at least now. Just have to watch that the WCB omega bomb precip doesn't peal NE. Sort of worry near I-95 about DS and mixing, but 10-15 miles means everything. just for clarification what is DS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 just for clarification what is DS? Dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 huh? They say we would mix tomorrow morning which has been on the table with 99% of runs and discussed here ad infinitum I'm 3 miles east of 95 and my overnight forecast is 2-4, 1-3 tomorrow AM. They def think we will mix early or not get good rates overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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