WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 LWX map is good, maybe shift the whole map 1 county width east. This is probably saying the same thing, but I'd bump everything east of the red bands up 1 category. E.g., 2-4" to 4-6", etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Filthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 17z RAP composite radar from midnight (5z) till 6am (11z) is 35+dbz rakage... 1" QPF line just south and west of DC proper RAP has been constantly signaling midnight till 4am at least of pwnage for past 6 runs now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 this is one to save even if it doesn't happen http://models.weatherbell.com/news/wrf_2014021212_ref_nmm_east.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Noticed all the models are trending to a solution where a 2nd batch/deform band forms and impacts the DC metro in some way. Here's what I think will happen for greater DC metro: 1. Front end dump with ~2"/hr rates for everywhere overnight. 4-8" DCA & S/E, 3-5" near the bay. 6-10" N/W burbs 2. S/E burbs including DCA flip to -ip/-zr for up to 6 hours between ~6 am and midday. N/W burbs may mix but not fully flip. add ~2" -sn/-ip 3. Deform band flips DC metro back to snow, additional 2-4" I think these totals occur: DCA 6-8" w/ 4-6 hrs of ip/zr IAD 10-13" w/ ~2-4 hrs of sn/ip mix BWI 9-12" w/ 4-6 hrs of sn/ip/zr mix JYO 12-15" all snow CHO 15-20" all snow FDK 12-15" all snow Towns just west of the bay 5-9" total Equal chances of overperform due to boom deform/rates scenario and of underperform due to mixing/changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The LWX map was changed lol! Just 30 minutes ago, 2-4" was all the way to Baltimore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 it is clearly labeled "storm total forecast"? Actually it is labeled "storm total snow forecast" which does not clearly fall into the man's enumerated categories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 it is clearly labeled "storm total accumulation"? Bottom of the map. "Storm total snow forecast In" So it is what LWX thinks will be on the ground by 12AM Fri, then? If that's the case, because surely there will be mixing east of 95, it must account for whatever the mix precip does to the overnight/morning accums. For instance, if I were to receive 6" before changeover, but the sleet/frza/rain knocks that 6" down to 4", and then I get 3" on the back-end, would that be 9" or 7" per this map? Sorry to bother... just looking for clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What exactly is that map depicting (what does LWX predict)? Snowfall? Total storm snow accumulation? Storm final snow accumulation? All of these numbers would in theory be different. Snowfall would ignore melting, etc. Total storm accumulation would ignore mix in the middle. Storm final would include the mix in the middle and anything it does to the overnight/morning snowfall - be it rain melting it, sleet knocking it down, etc. There will be NO melting except perhaps on paved surfaces. Snow sticks to snow just fine. It sticks to ground that's been in the deep freeze for a long time just as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Noticed all the models are trending to a solution where a 2nd batch/deform band forms and impacts the DC metro in some way. Here's what I think will happen for greater DC metro: 1. Front end dump with ~2"/hr rates for everywhere overnight. 4-8" DCA & S/E, 3-5" near the bay. 6-10" N/W burbs 2. S/E burbs including DCA flip to -ip/-zr for up to 6 hours between ~6 am and midday. N/W burbs may mix but not fully flip. add ~2" -sn/-ip 3. Deform band flips DC metro back to snow, additional 2-4" I think these totals occur: DCA 6-8" w/ 4-6 hrs of ip/zr IAD 10-13" w/ ~2-4 hrs of sn/ip mix BWI 9-12" w/ 4-6 hrs of sn/ip/zr mix JYO 12-15" all snow CHO 15-20" all snow FDK 12-15" all snow Towns just west of the bay 5-9" total Equal chances of overperform due to boom deform/rates scenario and of underperform due to mixing/changeover Looks good to me, quite similar to my own thoughts. I think DC proper probably ends up with a bit more than 6-8", but DCA probably will measure 6-8"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 this is one to save even if it doesn't happen http://models.weatherbell.com/news/wrf_2014021212_ref_nmm_east.gif How can we save it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 How can we save it? right click, save as? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 rap_ref_neng_15.png Unless there is some kind of really warm layer... I really doubt we mix before 12z tomorrow even in DC proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RAP is sometimes warm at range so good to see it looking cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah. That snapshot has the freezing line a good bit S/E. Just some sick returns on radar. Unless there is some kind of really warm layer... I really doubt we mix before 12z tomorrow even in DC proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 this is one to save even if it doesn't happen http://models.weatherbell.com/news/wrf_2014021212_ref_nmm_east.gif That would totally crush me with about 1 hour of mixing if it were right. It is a beauty. If it verifies you could probably sell the loop at the conference and make big bucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 right click, save as? Will bookmarking it work? Often times these types of links update with new loops. I honestly don't know much about animated gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm more concerned about how much falls before the lull than I am with mix lines and such. Everything trended well for us today through sunrise. SLP appears on the eastern edge of guidance. H5 looked great on every model. LWX Nexrad is picking up virga down by RIC already. It will be snowing in about 6 hours. I'm beside myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RAP is sometimes warm at range so good to see it looking cold. because it is cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks good to me, quite similar to my own thoughts. I think DC proper probably ends up with a bit more than 6-8", but DCA probably will measure 6-8"... Yeah, I think he's low for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 this is one to save even if it doesn't happen http://models.weatherbell.com/news/wrf_2014021212_ref_nmm_east.gifThis please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks good to me, quite similar to my own thoughts. I think DC proper probably ends up with a bit more than 6-8", but DCA probably will measure 6-8"... Yep, I went low for DCA knowing that many folks in DC proper will get a few inches more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That would totally crush me with about 1 hour of mixing if it were right. It is a beauty. If it verifies you could probably sell the loop at the conference and make big bucks. Yeah, it's a beauty. I'm hugging it for now. Will bookmarking it work? Often times these types of links update with new loops. I honestly don't know much about animated gif Got me. It looks like a special file so it won't get overwritten automatically or something but he may delete it. Should be easy enough to save it though and then open it on a computer etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This has been a fun ride...great insights...kudos to the experts. Now enjoy the snow beat down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 As with every major east coast snowstorm, you look for tornadoes and severe weather in Florida. Looks like that is about to happen this time. Link: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0092.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Geez... 18z RAP is really smoking the area on composite radar from 1-4am... 40+ dbz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Didnt see this posted yet http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0091.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0091 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...VA...SE WV CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 121842Z - 130045Z SUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM SERN WV EWD ACROSS MUCH OF VA. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BECOME COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES. DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MS VALLEY WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS SEWD ACROSS SC. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IN A BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION FROM ERN GA NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ALONG THIS ZONE WILL MOVE NWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BECOME INCREASINGLY ENHANCED ACROSS NRN NC AND VA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS VA AND SERN WV LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE 18Z SOUNDING FROM GREENSBORO NC SHOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS IN VA...SHOWING THE PRIMARY ZONE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB. AS MOISTENING CONTINUES TO OCCUR BELOW 850 MB...AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR COMMON. LOCALLY HIGHER RATES COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE ORGANIZED BANDING. ..BROYLES.. 02/12/2014 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like it's radar watching / now-casting time. Good luck to everyone; I hope everyone here gets one we can all enjoy. Thanks to all the learned posters for their days and sleepless nights of model watching and analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We may get rates over 5''/hour for short periods tonight. Back in 1987 thundersnow led to reports of 6'' of snow in TEN minutes locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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