Crazy4Wx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I am prepared for more rain in Annapolis....as that is all we have had since 8am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 hello NAM http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=006ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_006_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 How much of that precip that the NAM has falling around D.C. proper is going to be a result of the incoming line from RIC? I'd love for that to be snow, but I have the feeling its just going to be all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 dang. Fringe for me. First blue is .40. I'll see what highres says once it comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Isn't there much more coming as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 7:56 PM, Bob Chill said: dang. Fringe for me. First blue is .40. I'll see what highres says once it comes out. 18nam.JPG move jackpot 30 miles west please. =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 About getting close to "game time" for the 2nd round (extra innings, OT, whatever analogy you want!)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Dang, every model run seems to dry up the ULL a bit out here (FDK)...oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 7:56 PM, Bob Chill said: dang. Fringe for me. First blue is .40. I'll see what highres says once it comes out. 18nam.JPG In a few hours you'll be happy you missed this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 7:55 PM, terpsnation said: How much of that precip that the NAM has falling around D.C. proper is going to be a result of the incoming line from RIC? I'd love for that to be snow, but I have the feeling its just going to be all rain. Not sure why you have that feeling. 850's drop to below -3 by 7pm. Decent rates will be snow. Look at the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 7:58 PM, Always in Zugzwang said: About getting close to "game time" for the 2nd round (extra innings, OT, whatever analogy you want!)? It seems the sentiment is now rain with everyone so not much game perhaps...I thought we were all stoked just an hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 does anyone know where the snow/rain line is and its current movement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 8:00 PM, Bob Chill said: Not sure why you have that feeling. 850's drop to below -3 by 7pm. Decent rates will be snow. Look at the mid levels. Good point - but isn't it really a question of timing? The band to our south looks like it's rapidly approaching and should reach D.C. by 4:30 - 5ish. Do we think the 850s will have dropped enough by that time so that rates will overcome the ground temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 8:04 PM, terpsnation said: Good point - but isn't it really a question of timing? The band to our south looks like it's rapidly approaching and should reach D.C. by 4:30 - 5ish. Do we think the 850s will have dropped enough by that time so that rates will overcome the ground temps? The ground is covered with snow so that shouldn't be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 8:00 PM, Bob Chill said: Not sure why you have that feeling. 850's drop to below -3 by 7pm. Decent rates will be snow. Look at the mid levels. That's what I was thinking, looking at the mid-levels. I'm not sure why some of these comments in here. It's cooling off now, especially at those levels. I thought all along this was what we were all looking at, and the latest LWX forecast is for snow into the late evening just past midnight. Would not be surprised if there's sleet or some mix at the beginning, almost like the Jan. 2011 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KOFP.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 8:00 PM, Bob Chill said: Not sure why you have that feeling. 850's drop to below -3 by 7pm. Decent rates will be snow. Look at the mid levels. It's likely going to be disappointing for us down here. Looks like rain or sleet incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 8:00 PM, Bob Chill said: Not sure why you have that feeling. 850's drop to below -3 by 7pm. Decent rates will be snow. Look at the mid levels. The NAMS sounding at initialization was pretty darn accurate for 18z, had the surface about 36.5 which is exactly what it was. At 21z it has the surface less than 1C (not sure we'll get there) which I'm assuming means the precip has moved in and at 00z it's def an all snow sounding like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Remember that if we get some heavy rates (+SN) we'll get dynamic cooling of the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Glad I made out well with the first batch...great storm for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 P.S I'm sorry the storm disappointed you ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 18Z 4km NAM looks great http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=006ℑ=data%2Fnam-hires%2F18%2Fnam-hires_namer_006_sim_reflectivity.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=sim_reflectivity&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= while the RAP screws D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjohndc Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I would think the initial batch coming towards the beltway will be rain/sleet, but I think LWX is right that snow will take over between 5 and 7. Just it time for the big returns to our south. 34.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 7:57 PM, PraetorianGuard said: Isn't there much more coming as well? You keep asking this. The ULL is it. At best, someone gets another 2-4". Then, we are done. We had an area wide 8-16" snowfall outside of extreme NW zones that got higher and extreme SE areas that got a little lower. It was a good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The atmosphere is a loose cannon with this batch. Models have been inconsistent and boom or bust is still on the table. My guess is further southeast will make out better because of the H5 track, but I can see the western mountains helping to set off something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 8:17 PM, stormtracker said: It's likely going to be disappointing for us down here. Looks like rain or sleet incoming. We did ok I guess from the first batch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 For the record, there's no reason to be disappointed in this storm. This was always going to be a front end thump, dry slot with snizzle and then a chance for a back end hit. It's gone as planned, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 8:31 PM, snowfan said: For the record, there's no reason to be disappointed in this storm. This was always going to be a front end thump, dry slot with snizzle and then a chance for a back end hit. It's gone as planned, IMO. If someone got 6" when others 20 miles away got 13", they have every right to be disappointed. They don't have to be disappointed, of course, but it's completely understandable if they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 8:34 PM, mattie g said: If someone got 6" when others 20 miles away got 13", they have every right to be disappointed. They don't have to be disappointed, of course, but it's completely understandable if they are. Meh. There's about a 30 mile difference between myself and Wes. He was always at risk for switching sooner than me and ending up with lower totals. And it looks like he got 5.5 to my 11. My 11 was a high bust based on the LWX forecast, but his total was pretty much spot on. Just using this as an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Dt reporting heavy snow in Chester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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