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February 12-13 Storm IV, Model Discussion


stormtracker

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It's also warmer than most, if not all, of the other models.

 

On the bright side, it seems to be a little punchier with round two.

I think it's warmer because it's lighter with the precip on the western flank.

 

It's still doing that whole convection thing.  It can't be outright dismissed at all, but it is worth noting that it is the only model doing that.

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GFS has a great track with h5, h85, and slp but still remains weak on precip. Don't like it but can't ignore it. 

 

Yeah, can't really ignore it without any other compelling evidence to do so.  But makes you wonder what it "sees" that's apparently different (in terms of precip and even temps) from every other piece of guidance.  It's quite a marked difference, that's for sure.  It has been consistent now for a few runs showing this.

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It's also warmer than most, if not all, of the other models.

On the bright side, it seems to be a little punchier with round two.

Isn't the warmth related to lack of precip? And I think GFS has precip wrong

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I think it's warmer because it's lighter with the precip on the western flank.

 

It's still doing that whole convection thing.  It can't be outright dismissed at all, but it is worth noting that it is the only model doing that.

 

RGEM is similar to the gfs through 24 with uber heavy off the coast. Still gets DCA .8+ through 7am.

 

post-2035-0-03655800-1392219911_thumb.jp

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The high resolution NAM really nicely shows a dry slot coming in leading to a lull in precip from the city east with the deformation band setting up to the west and then that band moving through in the evening as snow.  Temps at the surface are a little warm but I'm not sold on that.   I guess we'll see. 

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I think it's warmer because it's lighter with the precip on the western flank.

 

It's still doing that whole convection thing.  It can't be outright dismissed at all, but it is worth noting that it is the only model doing that.

 

Agreed.  Logically, it would seem that the lighter precip and temps go hand-in-hand.  *If* the precip on the western flank is a little light for the reasons that have been discussed ad nauseam (and the fact that it's on its own with it suggests something is up), then it might be better looking for that piece of the puzzle among the other models.

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Yeah, can't really ignore it without any other compelling evidence to do so.  But makes you wonder what it "sees" that's apparently different (in terms of precip and even temps) from every other piece of guidance.  It's quite a marked difference, that's for sure.  It has been consistent now for a few runs showing this.

 

The lower precip amounts have been consistent on the GFS but remember that it has been the last model to come around storm wise so it could still be playing catch up.

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