stormtracker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Model discussion only here. Obs go to the obs thread obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS out to 24. DC roughly .5-.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NWS thoughts on timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Anybody wanna summarize the RGEM while we wait for the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 At 27, DC right on the edge with at both 850 and 925. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Anybody wanna summarize the RGEM while we wait for the GFS ~40mm of precip... good for snow through 12z... RGEM suggests another 4-6mm (2-3 inches) tomorrow evening -- gathering this is the deform band coming through... snow doesn't end till ~03z or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looking at instant weather GFS maps, gives DC total 24h snowfall at the 6-7" mark and 7-8" mark a little west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS has a great track with h5, h85, and slp but still remains weak on precip. Don't like it but can't ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS has a great track with h5, h85, and slp but still remains weak on precip. Don't like it but can't ignore it. It's also warmer than most, if not all, of the other models. On the bright side, it seems to be a little punchier with round two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 From RNK's WSWarning down by LYH SNOW ACCUMULATING AT RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's also warmer than most, if not all, of the other models. On the bright side, it seems to be a little punchier with round two. I think it's warmer because it's lighter with the precip on the western flank. It's still doing that whole convection thing. It can't be outright dismissed at all, but it is worth noting that it is the only model doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS has a great track with h5, h85, and slp but still remains weak on precip. Don't like it but can't ignore it. Yeah, can't really ignore it without any other compelling evidence to do so. But makes you wonder what it "sees" that's apparently different (in terms of precip and even temps) from every other piece of guidance. It's quite a marked difference, that's for sure. It has been consistent now for a few runs showing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's also warmer than most, if not all, of the other models. On the bright side, it seems to be a little punchier with round two. Isn't the warmth related to lack of precip? And I think GFS has precip wrong Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS has a great track with h5, h85, and slp but still remains weak on precip. Don't like it but can't ignore it. It's annoying me greatly. You can't outright ignore it....what is it "seeing" that the other globals and hi res models aren't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think it's warmer because it's lighter with the precip on the western flank. It's still doing that whole convection thing. It can't be outright dismissed at all, but it is worth noting that it is the only model doing that. RGEM is similar to the gfs through 24 with uber heavy off the coast. Still gets DCA .8+ through 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS juicier I would say. Good sign. No worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The high resolution NAM really nicely shows a dry slot coming in leading to a lull in precip from the city east with the deformation band setting up to the west and then that band moving through in the evening as snow. Temps at the surface are a little warm but I'm not sold on that. I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS still pretty dry. Which is odd with a closed 500 at the mouth of the bay at 36. At least we have consensus on the track at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think it's warmer because it's lighter with the precip on the western flank. It's still doing that whole convection thing. It can't be outright dismissed at all, but it is worth noting that it is the only model doing that. Agreed. Logically, it would seem that the lighter precip and temps go hand-in-hand. *If* the precip on the western flank is a little light for the reasons that have been discussed ad nauseam (and the fact that it's on its own with it suggests something is up), then it might be better looking for that piece of the puzzle among the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Total precip for the storm on the gfs. It's mostly snow. Little falls after we lose 850's. Deform swings through and drops a couple inches on the tail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 12z UKIE 24 -- 997 just off of SE NC coast 30 -- 991 50 miles or so offshore of Southern part of Delmarva 36 -- 983 E of Ocean City ~50 to 70 mikes, SE of ACY about same 42 -- 978 ramming into S CT/LI area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 RGEM is similar to the gfs through 24 with uber heavy off the coast. Still gets DCA .8+ through 7am. rgem24hrqpf.JPG Ah, didn't see that the RGEM was doing that. Prob not to the extent the GFS is though, but still worth noting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah, can't really ignore it without any other compelling evidence to do so. But makes you wonder what it "sees" that's apparently different (in terms of precip and even temps) from every other piece of guidance. It's quite a marked difference, that's for sure. It has been consistent now for a few runs showing this. The lower precip amounts have been consistent on the GFS but remember that it has been the last model to come around storm wise so it could still be playing catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Heh, GFS boosts the backend and finally jumps to 1-1.25" overall precip for DC. Temp profiles still suck, but seals the deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Rap getting in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Total precip for the storm on the gfs. It's mostly snow. Little falls after we lose 850's. Deform swings through and drops a couple inches on the tail. gfsstormtotal.JPG GFS is not done adjusting. Happy hour should get even better, but by then the precip will be knocking at the door. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS for Saturday looks... uh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RGEM total. The destruction over Wes' house is mostly snow. Deform parks over and crushes between 95 and the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 One thing I kinda notice though is the GFS seems to show the convection better in the south than NAM....in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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