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V Day II obs


RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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The power of lift...I was hoping this would come in earlier to boost totals. Better late then never.

 

I think it's more than just that...weak low IMO to the south and that's helped to back winds.  Euro actually closes a contour in MA Bay in a few hours.  I think as that slid underneath coupled with the lift...the maritime air backed off a bit and dynamics won out.

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There's something else going on too.  Notice what's going on south of block island with that hook.  My winds changing to more NE coincided with the flip many of you saw.  Maybe the low is ticking a little east of those late forecasts.

 

 

I am suspect of a more E track, too .. .look at the 3-hourly pressure change -- it's off the charts E of CC

 

sfc_con_3pres.gif

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awesome for you BOS folk...the depressing posts leading from many of you leading up to this were affecting my livelyhood.

 

 

I admit I was surprised to see folks reporting rain in Boston earlier...but I still thought it was premature to jump without the parachutes.

 

The omega sig was really really strong. But I can see how it's hard "trusting" the guidance sometimes to bring you back from the dead.

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Very evident in the Euro layers...low is going to move right over my head (actually based on winds just to my SE).   That's backing the winds already, coupled with dynamics it was enough of a layoff of the easterly component to flip you guys back to snow.

 

So in your estimation..what does that do /mean for tonight with the low tracking east of guidance?

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I am suspect of a more E track, too .. .look at the 3-hourly pressure change -- it's off the charts E of CC

 

sfc_con_3pres.gif

 

 

In the last 24 hours the Euro went from the extension being SE of ACK extending back to NJ, to it being over the outer Cape extending back to NJ, to it now being in the Bay extending back to NJ.  As a  result the flow along and to the west is more northerly this run than 12 hours ago which is helping.

My winds have changed and I'm betting winds up along the coast where it's flipped to snow have come some degrees more northerly.

 

EDIT: I can't attach the Euro 0z/3z map because like everything else it failed on this site during a storm.

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