IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 None of the top 15 analogs show big snow at the coast anymore other than what is now the #1 analog....yes you guessed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 850s are still +1 at 06z friday around the city and coast on the gfs during the heaviest part of the ccb The warmest temps are just below 850 around 900 mb on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 None of the top 15 analogs show big snow at the coast anymore other than what is now the #1 analog....yes you guessed it. Except that analog isn't remotely accurate for what we are seeing down south. Heavy snow in eastern NC right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You guys really want to be in NW NJ and near POU and points north for this I think, CCB that is. It could sneak into EWR and NYC has an inch or two..but if NYC were to get this...you need an eastward adjustment.looks to curl just west of LI. i could see ewr getting clipped with a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 None of the top 15 analogs show big snow at the coast anymore other than what is now the #1 analog....yes you guessed it. I would still think 1/22/87 is a good analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That's bad meteorology, it absolutely matters about the track. I agree , think you`re scenario would mean the track would need to come inside providence . I think its SE of the BM and over CC . Think that energy out of CPA comes ENE and tags Philly to NYC , But that just MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Those CIPs analogs are not meant to be followed as textbooks. They are suggestive but they often prove to be wide range guidance regarding the setup and potential and sometimes they miss wildly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Except that analog isn't remotely accurate for what we are seeing down south. Heavy snow in eastern NC right now. Yes it looks like the best accumulations will be east of where the Superstorm had them. My bigger point was that none of the top 15 are big hits for the immediate coast. Yesterday that was not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That's bad meteorology, it absolutely matters about the track. Let me correct my previous statement. There have been storms where the hi-res models less than 48 hours out had NYC on east with the best lift/dynamics and lapse rates for the heaviest snowfall in the banding only for it to verify west and by the time it pivots over LI save for a few occasions its was more than noticably weaker than when it was at its peak intensity. Track does matter your right and shoudlve added that but i was more getting at some saying it would wack the entire area contradicted that due to multiple pass experiences with CCB's. sorry for not being more thorough with my statement when i should've coastalwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Let me correct my previous statement. There have been storms where the hi-res models less than 48 hours out had NYC on east with the best lift/dynamics and lapse rates for the heaviest snowfall in the banding only for it to verify west and by the time it pivots over LI save for a few occasions its was more than noticably weaker than when it was at its peak intensity. Track does matter your right and shoudlve added that but i was more getting at some saying it would wack the entire area contradicted that due to multiple pass experiences with CCB's. sorry for not being more thorough with my statement when i should've coastalwx Look at the mid level low tracks and where they shift, and that will be where any backlash comes through. Regardless, it looks like whatever falls with that will have to fight through a still nasty warm layer, so a good amount may be sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I like the blotches of 14-18" inland. I think 40 miles NW of the city gets close to 24" in a few spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I posted in observation thread, but just wondering whether precip shield was modeled to be so far north at this time (approaching VA/NC border)? Also wondering which model has (so far) been correct with what is going on right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I like the blotches of 14-18" inland. I think 40 miles NW of the city gets close to 24" in a few spots. Union county looks to go from 8-10 east of the parkway to 14-18 west but that seems odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I like the blotches of 14-18" inland. I think 40 miles NW of the city gets close to 24" in a few spots. I agree 100%.. Many up here will have a 30-36" snowpack by friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I like the blotches of 14-18" inland. I think 40 miles NW of the city gets close to 24" in a few spots. Wow, dont think I have ever seen such a sharp gradient in westchester. 6-8 along I-95 and 10-14 literally a mile or 2 inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wow, dont think I have ever seen such a sharp gradient in westchester. 6-8 along I-95 and 10-14 literally a mile or 2 inland.yeah i agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 12z UKIE 24 -- 997 just off of SE NC coast 30 -- 991 50 miles or so offshore of Southern part of Delmarva 36 -- 983 E of Ocean City ~50 to 70 mikes, SE of ACY about same 42 -- 978 ramming into S CT/LI area ***Per Mid Atl thread**** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWarning Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Let me correct my previous statement. There have been storms where the hi-res models less than 48 hours out had NYC on east with the best lift/dynamics and lapse rates for the heaviest snowfall in the banding only for it to verify west and by the time it pivots over LI save for a few occasions its was more than noticably weaker than when it was at its peak intensity. Track does matter your right and shoudlve added that but i was more getting at some saying it would wack the entire area contradicted that due to multiple pass experiences with CCB's. sorry for not being more thorough with my statement when i should've coastalwx The difference in this situation is that our main low pressure system is being pulled west by the Great Lakes Low, which is transferring its energy to the coast. That's why the models are tugging the low towards the Jersey Coast before heading North and North east. A lull in the precipitation forms because the two disturbances are merging, and a new Central Low Pressure is trying to relocate between the two systems based on the strength of both systems. Therefore, the low is kind of sitting in one position as this transfer takes place and precipitation builds back into New Jersey as the coastal is shifting closer to the coast before exiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Union county looks to go from 8-10 east of the parkway to 14-18 west but that seems odd I think it will be a more uniform distribution across Long Island and should reach warning criteria almost everywhere except the Twin Forks maybe. The front end is really going to produce-models are harping on it more and more. Heavy precip rates will also try to hold off the rain line as much as possible. Hopefully what comes after is largely just the dry slot. I'd go 6-10" for Long Island except 4-7" on the Twin Forks. NYC may be close to 10", JFK maybe 8". I think West Milford looks good for the jackpot-I think someone up in northern Morris, Passaic and Orange County, NY may see 18"+. 12" line is roughly just west of the GWB. A lot though rests on the backlash producing up there-it seems like some might fall as sleet. It'll take a few inches off totals if that is overdone or is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Like i said earlier in this thread regardless of the current track these CCB's love NJ/NYC area, HV and SWCT. As they pivot east across LI they lose lots of their punch, areas where it hits hard may see an extra 9-12" and as it gets to the coast it ends up being a few inches at best as the best dynamics and lift are lost. This is from my past experiences with deform bands that start in the NYC area and move eastI'm not throwing in the towel on the Ccb here yet. You did clarify you're earlier thoughts though. When the Ccb sets up 50 miles west of you as it slowly pivots east it tends weaken. The key is to get it to set up over you for us that was 2002 for eastern li last year.I'm starting to have a feeling the front end dump is going to be nuts with all that convection comming north we could see dynamic thunder snow in the 3" an hour range at some point across the board. I'm not going to loose sleep over the Ccb literally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The RAP which is still out of range for us looks ridiculous so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think it will be a more uniform distribution across Long Island and should reach warning criteria almost everywhere except the Twin Forks maybe. The front end is really going to produce-models are harping on it more and more. Heavy precip rates will also try to hold off the rain line as much as possible. Hopefully what comes after is largely just the dry slot. I'd go 6-10" for Long Island except 4-7" on the Twin Forks. NYC may be close to 10", JFK maybe 8". I think West Milford looks good for the jackpot-I think someone up in northern Morris, Passaic and Orange County, NY may see 18"+. 12" line is roughly just west of the GWB. A lot though rests on the backlash producing up there-it seems like some might fall as sleet. It'll take a few inches off totals if that is overdone or is warm.6-10" on LI is pretty conservative right now so i agree with that. Bulk of that is front end dumping as i am not relying a strong CCB to cross LI and substantially add to what we accumulated in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ggem is a 987 over the bm. I don't know about temps, but it has the Ccb over the entire area. Obv 850's might be flooded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 6-10" on LI is pretty conservative right now so i agree with that. Bulk of that is front end dumping as i am not relying a strong CCB to cross LI and substantially add to what we accumulated in the morning We're relying on a 6, maybe 8 hour period to produce most of our snow. 6-10" in those hours would be crazy for us. If we get another couple of inches later call that a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I know the UKIE track, but does anyone have precip/snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We're relying on a 6, maybe 8 hour period to produce most of our snow. 6-10" in those hours would be crazy for us. If we get another couple of inches later call that a bonus. We are lucking out yet again this season with the only reason we are doing so well tomorrow morning is the massive CAD courtesy of the strong -EPO pulse Arctic high slipping down. Otherwise, the teleconnections tomorrow are really weak with a -PNA neutral AO and +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I doubt we'll get more than 6" from the front end, probably those just to the N&W will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 There's definitely a strong TROWAL signature to our front-end dump...could easily overperform in many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I would be shocked if JFK gets more snow then te nw Nassau hills in fact I would bet the farm. I think upton goes with warning for Northern Nassau NYC and advisory southern Nassau Suffolk, Personally I highly doubt that verifys I think the front end dump is intense and uniform with everyone but the forks scoring 6-8 through NYC as the change over moves more nnw then west and quicker then usual. I do not see you're normal slow moving coastal front but more a rapid push . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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