jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Guys, stop with the IMBY questions, start times, etc. Just follow along with the discussion. It's annoying having to remove posts, often from the same people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS keeps the front end thump going longer than the NAM. gfsNE_850_temp_030.gif namNE_850_temp_030.gif After seeing VV charts this morning i have to think coupled with steeper mid level lapse rates we'd see widespread thundersnow early tommorow morning during the front end. Looks roughly like atleast 10" for front part of the storm metro area east chris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 12z RGEM meteogram : mostly snow, with a bit of sleet/rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My gut is telling me mostly snow. Not much rain here in essex county atleast. Maybe some sleet. E LI and south jersey shore might see rain I'm here in Essex as well and I definitely don't think mostly snow...but a nice front end dump turned to hours of taint....and the CCB is the big question. We will probably catch the southeastern fringes of it for at least 2". Well NW of here probably 10-12" followed by taint mix to CCB additional 6-10". Will be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The follow up s/w still looks sharp enough to produce an area of snow on Sat morning... maybe a light refresher - something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 After seeing VV charts this morning i have to think coupled with steeper mid level lapse rates we'd see widespread thundersnow early tommorow morning during the front end. Looks roughly like atleast 10" for front part of the storm metro area east chris Yeah, the morning looks great. I think the problem at night for Long Island with the CCB is the heaviest precip stays west of us this run of GFS so the warm pocket centered near 900 mb hangs tough. Maybe we can get a little shift our way next few runs to do a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The follow up s/w still looks sharp enough to produce an area of snow on Sat morning... maybe a light refresher - something to keep an eye on. H5 looks good on the GFS but the surface doesn't show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If we had the strong high to the north this could have really been a solid wind maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Gfs still has the thermals a bit too warm with the CCB, I suspect it would end up a bit colder. The way it was explained in the NE thread, warm air works back around and actually keeps the column warmer as a result, so a lot of it may be sleet due to that warm layer. I'm sure at that intensity snow can make it but it also may not all be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like a reverse of the March 2001 storm... this storm may just over perform. If it's going to storm, might as well storm pretty heavily! IMO this stormed has shown this potential for quite a few days now it was always ironing out the details i remember telling my wife 3 days ago anything less than a foot would be dissapointing..I stil feel that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I know this is off topic from the models but you can just tell a storm is coming in, the sun is out here in brooklyn n.y but you can see it fading to the higher clouds starting to roll in looks cool the first time I ever noticed that was on February 15th 1958 before the blizzard of 58 hit the area...that was the first storm I remember from beginning to end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 for the people being sad pandas that it's going to go over to rain. you can't concentrate on the blue line with such dynamics coming in. It'll probably be a heavy snow @ 33 event for most of the area...brief period of rain during the dry slot...and then back to heavy snow. I also agree with the thundersnow, seems like a certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah, the morning looks great. I think the problem at night for Long Island with the CCB is the heaviest precip stays west of us this run of GFS so the warm pocket centered near 900 mb hangs tough. Maybe we can get a little shift our way next few runs to do a bit better. 900.gif Wouldnt be surprised if the best snow rates/dynamics were to our west instead. Always seems whenever were progged to get the worst it shifts west to NYC area and lower HV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You guys really want to be in NW NJ and near POU and points north for this I think, CCB that is. It could sneak into EWR and NYC has an inch or two..but if NYC were to get this...you need an eastward adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Where are the updates on ukmet and GGEM ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The way it was explained in the NE thread, warm air works back around and actually keeps the column warmer as a result, so a lot of it may be sleet due to that warm layer. I'm sure at that intensity snow can make it but it also may not all be snow. 850s are still +1 at 06z friday around the city and coast on the gfs during the heaviest part of the ccb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You guys really want to be in NW NJ and near POU and points north for this I think, CCB that is. It could sneak into EWR and NYC has an inch or two..but if NYC were to get this...you need an eastward adjustment. I agree completely.. Anywhere from FWN to POU is where you wanna be for this event. No dry slot & no taint not to mention CCB ownage. Widespread 15-20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I agree completely.. Anywhere from FWN to POU is where you wanna be for this event. No dry slot & no taint. Widespread 15-20" From the look of all of the model suite anyone north of TTN or so, from LI to W NJ has an equal chance. Of course N of there your good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 850s are still +1 at 06z friday around the city and coast on the gfs during the heaviest part of the ccb Didnt somebody say recently since GFS is not hi res will not pick up thermal profiles and dynamic cooling as well. It is just crazy though with temps that have been well below freezing and a nor'easter which usually brings its own cool air that temps are so borderline. I guess no strong high to the north really makes a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You guys really want to be in NW NJ and near POU and points north for this I think, CCB that is. It could sneak into EWR and NYC has an inch or two..but if NYC were to get this...you need an eastward adjustment. Like i said earlier in this thread regardless of the current track these CCB's love NJ/NYC area, HV and SWCT. As they pivot east across LI they lose lots of their punch, areas where it hits hard may see an extra 9-12" and as it gets to the coast it ends up being a few inches at best as the best dynamics and lift are lost. This is from my past experiences with deform bands that start in the NYC area and move east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 850s are still +1 at 06z friday around the city and coast on the gfs during the heaviest part of the ccb They would verify colder , The column would collapse , there`s so much upward motion the cold would come right down . I disagree If anything the CCB IMO its from Philly - NY NWNJ and Long Island and pulls NE not N . Check the VV AT 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Didnt somebody say recently since GFS is not hi res will not pick up thermal profiles and dynamic cooling as well. It is just crazy though with temps that have been well below freezing and a nor'easter which usually brings its own cool air that temps are so borderline. I guess no strong high to the north really makes a difference. Yeah I'm not saying its right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 From the look of all of the model suite anyone north of TTN or so, from LI to W NJ has an equal chance. Of course N of there your good. You are gonna have to be north of a line from TTN-TEB-HPN to have the potential to really cash in. Everyone SE of that line will taint its pretty much a lock and advertised on every single model now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 the first time I ever noticed that was on February 15th 1958 before the blizzard of 58 hit the area...that was the first storm I remember from beginning to end...its very weird the sun is out but it looks cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 They would verify colder , The column would collapse , there`s so much upward motion the cold would come right down . I disagree If anything the CCB IMO its from Philly - NY NWNJ and Long Island and pulls NE not N . Check the VV AT 42 Read my above post paul as to my concern for the possible CCB as it reaches LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 nothing is set in stone, deform band is a wildcard and models never exactly nail down the position and coverage of the deform zone. could end up in E PA/N MD/NWNJ could also be further east or north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Read my above post paul as to my concern for the possible CCB as it reaches LI It's hard to cash in on these here but it's certainly not impossible. I would count on the vast majority of our snow being up front but it wouldn't take a huge adjustment to bring back end snow further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You are gonna have to be north of a line from TTN-TEB-HPN to have the potential to really cash in. Everyone SE of that line will taint its pretty much a lock and advertised on every single model now. RGM and GFS both show central to especially north jersey getting pasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Like i said earlier in this thread regardless of the current track these CCB's love NJ/NYC area, HV and SWCT. As they pivot east across LI they lose lots of their punch, areas where it hits hard may see an extra 9-12" and as it gets to the coast it ends up being a few inches at best as the best dynamics and lift are lost. This is from my past experiences with deform bands that start in the NYC area and move east That's bad meteorology, it absolutely matters about the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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