IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 They are having big issues down by ATL now with the convection robbing moisture in north Georgia this could have impacts on storm track next 18-24 hours Yeah the radar in northern GA looks pretty terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Not an IMBY question, but what is the general thought to when KNYC actually begins snowing? I have heard/seen ranges from 10PM tonight till 3AM tomorrow morning This is for midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 They are having big issues down by ATL now with the convection robbing moisture in north Georgia this could have impacts on storm track next 18-24 hours What type of impact would it have, would the low pressure move further south and east than progged torwards the convection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah the radar in northern GA looks pretty terrible. The Upper feature and low in the gulf are under development, and N. GA will get a comma head CCB tonight. The radar doesn't look great, but it will continue to fill in and back-build, especially East and Northeast of ATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What type of impact would it have, would the low pressure move further south and east than progged torwards the convection? I guess that would be possible but it's really the fast negative tilting and closing off that sends warm air in so fast (but also generates the massive front end thumping). I still think personally it hugs the coast up to maybe Cape May and then heads ENE/NE from there when the kicker catches up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RGEM looks a tick east of its 06z run's track of the surface low at 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Awesome. \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wraps up at 09z or 3AM on Friday morning. The total QPF on this run is about an inch+ less than what 06z showed thanks to the dry slotting. (all per the 4k NAM) Instead the heaviest totals are north and east of NYC. We desperately need the mid level centers to pass further south and east to avoid the dry slotting. Or we need H5 to close off and get that CCB cranking faster. Just FYI, 9z is 4am (EST is GMT -5). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Rgem is amazing. This Ccb is going to go to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The Upper feature and low in the gulf are under development, and N. GA will get a comma head CCB tonight. The radar doesn't look great, but it will continue to fill in and back-build, especially East and Northeast of ATL The negative tilting of the trough will throw a lot more moisture back that way. Their storm is nowhere close to finished yet. The front end looks absolutely nasty on the most recent models this morning, insane VV's and lift come through around dawn and could drop 2-3"/hr at times. I'm fairly confident at 6"+ areawide before mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RGEM looks a tick east of its 06z run's track of the surface low at 30 hours.see what I am saying models are still shifting from east to west with no consistency am I wrong for saying this is a nowcasting event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RGEM looks great. Pummeling front end for everyone, with maybe a couple of hours of light rain/mix before we dry slot. Then possible CCB on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 see what I am saying models are still shifting from east to west with no consistency am I wrong for saying this is a nowcasting event? A 'tick' east is not the same as shifting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The model trends have been great, IMO. The 500mb low is slowly trending more organized, so we all get a great front-end thump -- perhaps a 6-9 hour period of 1-3"/hr snowfall rates at times. Then we dry-slot -- the more west and stronger 500mb track aligns the mid-level centers to dry-slot us longer, but then also allows the CCB to mature as well. The NAM finally briefly closed off at 500mb, which is why it's finally starting to show the CCB portion of the storm looking great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Most of us eventually dry slot on the RGEM for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Most of us eventually dry slot on the RGEM for a few hours. Verbatim the CCB track looks best for NYC and points just west this run, but tons of time to iron that out. It's starting to look fairly likely this feature is real and might nail quite a few people. I'm hesitant to think more than 2-4" from something like that but if it reaches its full potential, watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The rgem takes the low over LI and west of Hartford...i don't know about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If the CCB materializes like the RGEM shows some areas would see close to 2 feet. The RGEM paints a few hours of sleet for NNJ before the backend precipitation flips back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Verbatim storm totals even for NYC/LI would be 12"+ from the front end thump and whatever back end materializes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Verbatim the CCB track looks best for NYC and points just west this run, but tons of time to iron that out. It's starting to look fairly likely this feature is real and might nail quite a few people. I'm hesitant to think more than 2-4" from something like that but if it reaches its full potential, watch out. The CCB is trending stronger on most of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The computer models which i really don't understand that well doesn't measure arctic entrenched air to well just my obs over the years.The anomaly is a pain in the arse for most experienced forecasters so just be ready for a snowgasm and someone is going to have a silly amount of snow somewhere.There ya go lets rock n roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What's amazing is that even with the changeover for the coast, snow totals could reach 12 inches. Inland areas look great with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 see what I am saying models are still shifting from east to west with no consistency am I wrong for saying this is a nowcasting event?it's noise... "windshield wipering" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The model trends have been great, IMO. The 500mb low is slowly trending more organized, so we all get a great front-end thump -- perhaps a 6-9 hour period of 1-3"/hr snowfall rates at times. Then we dry-slot -- the more west and stronger 500mb track aligns the mid-level centers to dry-slot us longer, but then also allows the CCB to mature as well. The NAM finally briefly closed off at 500mb, which is why it's finally starting to show the CCB portion of the storm looking great. I have a question that isn't strictly related to the 12z model cycle, but I hope it'll be allowed anyway. Briefly, why does closing off the 500 mb low lead to a more substantial ccb? Is it simply because a closed isohypse is indicative of a stronger low, or does the pinching off have tangible meteorological implications? I have some vague ideas but I don't want to put words in the mouths of experts, so I'll just leave the question at that. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 They are having big issues down by ATL now with the convection robbing moisture in north Georgia this could have impacts on storm track next 18-24 hours Even the Euro missed that Alabama dry slot with the SW Georgia/FL Panhandle convection verifying stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The rgem takes the low over LI and west of Hartford...i don't know about that I think it passes just over the twin forks on its way out. Over LI and West of Hartford I don't see that even though the RGEM may show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We snowing hour 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Gfs has a very good thump of snow. Very nice show tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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