bluewave Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 4km coming out on ewall now is pretty impressive...this is 10 hours worth of snow or so. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/rad26.gif It looks like 8-10 before any changeover in NYC by around 16z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The front end is still so impressive that I care a little less about that. We'll see what we can do on the backend. The NAM has incredible vertical velocities and heavy snow for 10 hours on the front end of the system and then a dry slot in the mid levels. Agreed, it should be ripping tomorrow morning. Would be nice to cash in on the backend and bump this event to the next level. I'm encouraged by the GFS trending towards this and hopefully its 12z run continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 10-12" for the entire area on the front end via the weeniebell snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 10-12" for the entire area on the front end via the weeniebell snow maps. Is there a link for that or is that a paid map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 4k is painting snow depths of nearly 30" from SE PA up into upstate NY but that's with a base of 5-10" already on the ground at initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The front end is still so impressive that I care a little less about that. We'll see what we can do on the backend. The NAM has incredible vertical velocities and heavy snow for 10 hours on the front end of the system and then a dry slot in the mid levels. The front end is looking better to me. The mid-level centers inland over VA/NC tomorrow morning, actually help push a stronger coastal front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If we get 8-10"+ from the front end thump I consider anything the CCB can do over 1-3" purely a bonus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 06z the CCB persisted for nearly 10 hours and was much more intense. This run is reduced because it takes a few hours longer to intensify. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=048ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_048_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=042ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_042_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M How was the CCB more persistent on the 06z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It seems to be a fairly narrow area verbatim though where a lot of that is snow. The 850mb temps don't crash SE as fast as I thought it would in such a setup. Man, what a wild card tomorrow night is shaping up as. Could be little, could be a burial. I'm thinking an average of 6" for most from the front end, but that could double at the end if the CCB really develops as it could. Pretty much the wild card right now is the Ccb. When and where it sets-up it's going to dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like NYC/LI could see 8"+ just from the front end dump tommorow before the dryslot snizzle and whatever happens with the backend of the storm john And this morning you were throwing in the towel at 4". C'mon kid have some faith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Please lay off the "how much for MBY" questions-I'm having to delete a fair number of these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=048ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_048_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=042ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_042_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M How was the CCB more persistent on the 06z run? You have to compare the high resolution maps. The smoothed out 12k doesn't do it justice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 btw, the 6Z RGEM had 10-14" of snow for NYC despite the tick west/warmer look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 10-12" for the entire area on the front end via the weeniebell snow maps. LOL Love that comment !! By the way thanks everyone for your input the entire winter, its been interesting. 42.2 inches is my seasonal snow total so far here at the NWS Co op station here in Harrison, NJ - Hudson County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 4k is painting snow depths of nearly 30" from SE PA up into upstate NY but that's with a base of 5-10" already on the ground at initialization. With some simple math looks like around 20" of snow for areas up this way near KSWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 May not be til tonight or tomorrow morning u get a good read on the back end CCB ..the hrrr, rap, ect should help out with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The superstorm is up to the #2 analog in the east on updated analogs That closed off over the southeast. Not a bad analog IMO at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Now cast mode. Either way looks like a nice snow event coming. Little differences in the track can make a huge difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I still say models are having a hard time every other run it is coming in east and west other than the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The superstorm is up to the #2 analog in the east on updated analogs That closed off over the southeast. Not a bad analog IMO Increasing similarities for sure. Noticed the ARW/NMM from last night driving a good MCC into Florida from the GoM, for example. Of course, we don't have a 972mb low in the gulf, so there's a little difference there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Front end thump more impressive than CCB of the 4km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We have our multiple lows down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Front end thump more impressive than CCB on the 4km. rad26.gif rad42.gif Goes with my thinking that the front end thump will be more impressive than the CCB itself. 8-12" front end to maybe another 3-6" CCB is a conservative call for LI according to the NAM. Much higher than i predicted thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 For KNYC MC and Long Island the Goldilocks scenario is 1993 on the front ,( the surface stays 33 to 35 ) then Jan 2011 . You are not far away from that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If this had managed to completely close off in this frame the CCB would have gotten going a few hours sooner. Instead it doesn't close off until hour 39, thus the CCB intensifies at hour 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Goes with my thinking that the front end thump will be more impressive than the CCB itself. 8-12" front end to maybe another 3-6" CCB is a conservative call for LI according to the NAM. Much higher than i predicted thus far The beauty of this is there wont be much melting during the afternoon with temps only rising to 34-35 without much rain in dry slot. The bulk of the precip falls frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 They are having big issues down by ATL now with the convection robbing moisture in north Georgia this could have impacts on storm track next 18-24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Keeping expectations low for both front end and especially CCB. About 20-25 miles south of the city so I assume I would get less on the front end than the city itself so I'm shooting for 6" on the front end and 2-3" on the back end. Those amounts would fit in perfectly for the 6-10" in the warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Increasing similarities for sure. Noticed the ARW/NMM from last night driving a good MCC into Florida from the GoM, for example. Of course, we don't have a 972mb low in the gulf, so there's a little difference there. Noticing we didn't have a northern stream kicker to deal with on that storm. Likely because it was a triple phaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think it is very realistic for everyone at least north of rt 195 in NJ to still see the 10-12 inch plus amounts, Whether its 7 inches front and 3 on the back or 10 all up front, Think we will all be happy when its all said and done, The only model to look at is the "earthlight wisdom" model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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