IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hour 42 the CCB really getting going just in time for eastern NJ and points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 850 low tucked right under the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ccb crushing hr 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This run of the NAM is the exact opposite of the positive trends we saw during the 0z and 6z suite. Being the NAM im not getting too worked up over it as it made a pretty drastic shift in under 48 period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM looks like a frontend 5 - 10 inch from CNJ - NENJ/NYC. Then mix/rain dry slot. Lets see what comes on the bacside big front end dump with this...it will probably get above freezing for a time also before the back side comes through...hopfully their is a backside with this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hour 42 the CCB really getting going just in time for eastern NJ and points east. The 850mb temps need to crash faster though for a lot of that not to be a mix or rain though. Uggghhh..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We should see the CCB develop for Long Island and maybe the NJ Coast at 42hours just judging on the H7 track. 42-45 look good for the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This run of the NAM is the exact opposite of the positive trends we saw during the 0z and 6z suite. Being the NAM im not getting too worked up over it as it made a pretty drastic shift in under 48 period Its pretty much trended towards EURO/GFS, and will likely continue to do so IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 QPF for NYC is close to 1.75" but with some of that being taint. Points well NW of the city look to never change over. That looks to be where the jackpot zone will be. That strip that runs from Vernon into West Milford, Hewitt and then up into Orange County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 really doubt the colder spots of the region get above freezing tomorrow, wouldn't be surprised to see some widespread light freezing rain in some spots after the initial thump and before the possible CCB movies in. something to consider... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The ARW run on Ewall has 1.25" QPF as snow, a drizzly dry slot, and then another 1" QPF with the CCB. For entertainment value: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMEAST_12z/rsmloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hr 45 it's a Ccb special for eastern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 really doubt the colder spots of the region get above freezing tomorrow, wouldn't be surprised to see some widespread light freezing rain in some spots after the initial thump and before the possible CCB movies in. something to consider... North and west of the city, no one should get above 32. There might well be a zone of light freezing rain if that's the case inside the dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ccb looks to be close to .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 4k NAM shows the dry slow pretty well south of I-80 by 18z and then continuing to push NW. The radar is going to look like crap early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ccb looks to be close to .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The Surface freezing line on the 4k NAM never makes it northwest of the I-80/I-287 intersection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hr 45 it's a Ccb special for eastern areas It seems to be a fairly narrow area verbatim though where a lot of that is snow. The 850mb temps don't crash SE as fast as I thought it would in such a setup. Man, what a wild card tomorrow night is shaping up as. Could be little, could be a burial. I'm thinking an average of 6" for most from the front end, but that could double at the end if the CCB really develops as it could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 4k NAM shows the dry slow pretty well south of I-80 by 18z and then continuing to push NW. The radar is going to look like crap early afternoon. Actually it would be rain/slop anyway, so that would make a dry slot welcome.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well the NAM gives EWR about 1.6" QPF, I would estimate 70% as snow w/ avg 10:1 ratio. That would yield about 11" or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 4k NAM is painting a pretty sad picture for western areas tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night, things look to be getting going for those areas just a few hours too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You can see the 850mb freezing line hitting a wall right at I-287 on the 4K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 How far west? You're safe, the Poconos and far western NJ. The CCB explodes at hour 42 with NE NJ and SE NY the hardest hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wraps up at 09z or 3AM on Friday morning. The total QPF on this run is about an inch+ less than what 06z showed thanks to the dry slotting. (all per the 4k NAM) Instead the heaviest totals are north and east of NYC. We desperately need the mid level centers to pass further south and east to avoid the dry slotting. Or we need H5 to close off and get that CCB cranking faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Surface certainly doesn't look too warm despite the mid levels really going up, probably a couple degrees above freezing as we dry slot. Has basically trended toward other guidance with the CCB and looks like we could pick up 4-6" with it. It'll be interesting to see if we can get a stronger more pronounced CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 4km NAM is mostly frozen through 30 hr for NYC with 1.25" QPF 0.5-0.75" with the backend stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 4km coming out on ewall now is pretty impressive...this is 10 hours worth of snow or so. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/rad26.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 06z the CCB persisted for nearly 10 hours and was much more intense. This run is reduced because it takes a few hours longer to intensify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 4km NAM is mostly frozen through 30 hr for NYC with 1.25" QPF 0.5-0.75" with the backend stuff. Looks like NYC/LI could see 8"+ just from the front end dump tommorow before the dryslot snizzle and whatever happens with the backend of the storm john Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On 06z the CCB persisted for nearly 10 hours and was much more intense. This run is reduced because it takes a few hours longer to intensify. The front end is still so impressive that I care a little less about that. We'll see what we can do on the backend. The NAM has incredible vertical velocities and heavy snow for 10 hours on the front end of the system and then a dry slot in the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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