96blizz Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just wow. Dreams do come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Gorgeous comma head right over the area. Surface and 850's hanging right over the city. This is deepening nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM is warmer at 925 and 850mb with those mid levels centers farther southwest. There are still very strong east winds at those layers through 27 hours. Although this run may still be snowy on the front end, it will end up warmer behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 H7 dry slot moving in at 30 hours. The 850mb low is still too far west over Ocean City MD. We need that to now redevelop eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Something has to give though. Either the NAM caves or the others do. Would be the NAMs biggest coup of them all if it verifies, though probs are not on its side. Exciting to see how this all comes together! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The low is going to be tucked right into the coast, not sure what some people were looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Some people saying it's warmer, some people saying it's colder . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Something has to give though. Either the NAM caves or the others do. Would be the NAMs biggest coup of them all if it verifies, though probs are not on its side. Exciting to see how this all comes together! You have to look at the mid level centers and the trends since 00z. The NAM has trended dramatically towards the farther west in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Sub 992mb low about 50-75 miles SE of ACY. Backend CCB developing nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 850mb temperature is +4 C at 33 hours because the center of the 850mb low is tracking over Southeast NJ now instead of south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You have to look at the mid level centers and the trends since 00z. The NAM has trended dramatically towards the farther west in that regard. Yea you are correct, I was basing my comment of other observations I had read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NYC and points south and east are clearly rain at hour 33. A narrow band of IP or ZR is just to the NW of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wow. Again, if only the NAM was a reliable model... I'm still not sure I buy a low track hugging the coast past Cape May. The kicker should hopefully provide a shunt NE from there. Hopefully it does, or people from the city east will be watching western NJ and the Hudson Valley pile up with whatever CCB comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's about to close off at hour 33 (500mb), in nearly the perfect spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Perhaps the kicker has weakened some? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The NAM IS sharper with the 500mb shortwave, it could still produce CCB snows as it heads NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Sub 992mb low about 50-75 miles SE of ACY. Backend CCB developing nicely. The mid level lows have to be aligned properly, or the CCB won't be a factor. Verbatim, it looks a lot better for you than from the city east on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 All the precip that falls on the 12z Nam is with the freezing line right through NYC. It's a great run. As it warms up on this rain, the rain shuts off http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=030ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_030_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM is going to be a Very snowy run for all areas. Going se actually ends up with less snow than 6z or 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM is warm after hour 30. 850s go above freezing for the entire area by 18z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The surface beings to crash at hour 36 back towards the coast while 850's stay warm. Looks like a flip to ZR NW of the city. It was nearly closed off at hour 33 but then opened back up at hour 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 According to soundings on COD. NYC still is snow until at least 15z Wed. .50"+ qpf has fallen. Snow growth might not be very good though by that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 At 00z Friday the 500mb vortmax is still over eastern VA, long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM is warm after hour 30. 850s go above freezing for the entire area by 18z tomorrow. We are in a dry slot at that time. Most of the precip is over before we await for the CCB. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=030ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_030_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The mid level lows have to be aligned properly, or the CCB won't be a factor. Verbatim, it looks a lot better for you than from the city east on that. The mid level tracks on this run are really poor and have trended toward the ECMWF guidance. The 850mb track is very bad initially as it allows east/southeasterly winds to pull in warm air all the way to N NJ. When the CCB is trying to develop, the broad 850mb low can't pull in enough cold air advection to cool the column. The perfect mid level center tracks we were seeing yesterday are gone on this run of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM looks like a frontend 5 - 10 inch from CNJ - NENJ/NYC. Then mix/rain dry slot. Lets see what comes on the bacside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We should see the CCB develop for Long Island and maybe the NJ Coast at 42hours just judging on the H7 track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hour 39 the low is deepening over the benchmark with wrap around snows as far southwest as North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Check out the VVs over SE PA @ 39 hours, thing is going to blow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm going to call BS and say this closes off around hours 33-36 at 500mb and allows the CCB to really get going. The NAM was so close to doing it and the GFS has been trending in that direction. Verbatim, the further west 850mb low causes warm air to come in a lot quicker and the front end may increasingly be rain near the coast if that's true. A lot of us need that further east so that the warm air can be delayed. Now, the 850s are climbing above 0 by 15z where prior runs and 0z models were having that happen by 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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