12z Models 2.12.14 Let's do discussion Here

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

am i allowed to post this?

this is pretty much all snow for nyc

http://models.weatherbell.com/news/wrf_2014021212_ref_nmm_east.gif

that's Insane if that verifies

[Zelocita Weather]

for Trenton euro has 4-7 on front end and 2-5 for the ccb.....11-12 inches

 

so yes on the euro 12+ in possible for cnj

 

 

Per EURO snow map 6" line is south of all of LI, then comes ashore near Pt.Pleasant and then maybe 5-10 miles inland and then runs almost due south to the Del Bay. North/West of that line (85% of NJ) it's 6"+.

[REDMK6GLI]

I think it's going to be hard to approach a foot-even the most aggressive models give us about an inch QPF before getting too warm, and given ratios that's probably 8-10". Over an inch liquid last Monday gave us 7-9". It's going to be a wet snow again with temps 30 or above mainly. After seeing the Euro I could think 8-12", but not more than that unless the CCB materially shifts east and really swipes us. Looks now like maybe 1-3" from it if we're lucky.

It might actually be better for trees/power if we don't get much rain (although it may cause the snow to fall off tricky surfaces). It won't be warm enough to melt the snow and will just add weight. With enough wind it might cause a lot of damage. We really lucked out not having much wind last Monday, even so trees really sagged under the heavy wet snow.

I STRONGLY doubt the CCB rips through NYC on through LI if the 500mb LP does not close off at the right spot and even so im not seeing any glaring evidence that it would come across NYC metro/ LI like christmas 2002 or even january 2011

[jm1220]

I STRONGLY doubt the CCB rips through NYC on through LI if the 500mb LP does not close off at the right spot and even so im not seeing any glaring evidence that it would come across NYC metro/ LI like christmas 2002 or even january 2011

It has to close off or stay closed off east of us. If that's the case we have a chance.

[nyblizz44]

awesome tip!  thanks

truly fantastic discussion, excellent learning environment. thx v much 4 the link

[Bobby]

With this wrapping up like it does and the CCB headed east any thoughts on sound enhanced snows for the north shore of LI? I have seen it several times in the past and think this may be a very good setup for it.

[friedmators]

[nzucker]

I think it's going to be hard to approach a foot-even the most aggressive models give us about an inch QPF before getting too warm, and given ratios that's probably 8-10". Over an inch liquid last Monday gave us 7-9". It's going to be a wet snow again with temps 30 or above mainly. After seeing the Euro I could think 8-12", but not more than that unless the CCB materially shifts east and really swipes us. Looks now like maybe 1-3" from it if we're lucky.

 

It might actually be better for trees/power if we don't get much rain (although it may cause the snow to fall off tricky surfaces). It won't be warm enough to melt the snow and will just add weight. With enough wind it might cause a lot of damage. We really lucked out not having much wind last Monday, even so trees really sagged under the heavy wet snow.

Strongly disagree...the ECM has 1.5" of QPF for NYC, and this is a model that's usually conservative with QPF. Areas under the heaviest banding will probably see closer to 2" of liquid given the Gulf moisture influx and the chance for a 2-part storm. As long as the mid-level centers stay somewhat to the south or southeast, we could get 8-12" from the front end and then another 4-8" from the deformation/CCB.

 

We have to remember this is a storm that lasts a full day...it's not the standard 8-12 hour snowstorm. That's going to make a huge difference. NYC is very close to staying all snow on the 12z ECM, and models like the UKMET/GFS are even farther east with the mid-level centers and surface track. Not a stretch at all to see how we could get a foot.

 

Also, ratios are going to start out high, not like on Monday. We were recovering from a 55F day before the Monday storm hit. Here we are starting with everyone around 20/0 for T/Td. That makes a huge difference, Jim. 

[NorthShoreWx]

With this wrapping up like it does and the CCB headed east any thoughts on sound enhanced snows for the north shore of LI? I have seen it several times in the past and think this may be a very good setup for it.

 

I don't think there will be enough temperature differential to make much difference.

[mikemost]

All snow thanks for the feedback. I'm in Monmouth county. If the next euro run is more south an east would that be too far fetched for this area? Seems like a tough storm to get a handle on

Theoretically, yes. Though based on the Euro's track record, and ensemble support, I highly doubt you'll see any more of a notable shift. Better off to start looking at observations & regional/short term models at this point (HRRR/RAP/NMM) etc.

[rcad1]

Hope it's ok to ask this here. But any ideas what Upton might do with the watches on long island? Convert to warnings or wwa?

[liwxfan]

I'm feeling pretty confident here on north shore Suffolk county..have been all along..similar feeling last February! Think we will be pleasantly surprised out here have been all winter!

[Franklin0529]

Mike most? When do those models run again? An have they been showing signs of shifting east as well