Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 EURO snow maps look ridiculous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The high resolution regional Euro shows that the regular OP is smoothing the CCB development. The high resolution has the best banding from NE PA and High point northward to Binghamton. But there is still good precipitation all the way into NYC and LI. Thanks - does the CCB envelop the area as the deformation zone shows itself or does it slide east to clip NYC and environs? I'd much prefer the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 EURO snow maps look ridiculous... Is it against rules or can it be posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I wonder why the GFS is so much farther east with the CCB...Euro makes more sense I think. The 850 mb low on the GFS is about 25 miles further east than the Euro at 42 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Is it against rules or can it be posted? EURO PBP is an exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I just did the same. .. often times the pbp forgets my area and yours. I understand it's nyc Metro forum but share the love lol! It develops basically from Trenton northward lol, I chuckled when I saw we posted the same question at the same time. Thanks, John for the info - seems highly likely all the forecasts will now up their snowfall totals for the area, given the 12Z suite, including the Euro, all looking a bit snowier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 EURO snow maps look ridiculous... Now this is not allowed per Storm Mode rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 12z GGEM. Low is further east than previous runs. Near the benchmark . I'm not sure I trust that low center placement. Based on the RGEM position, there's a good chance the SLP center would actually end up tucked in closer to the Delmarva with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 lol, I chuckled when I saw we posted the same question at the same time. Thanks, John for the info - seems highly likely all the forecasts will now up their snowfall totals for the area, given the 12Z suite, including the Euro, all looking a bit snowier... I think Mt. Holly will be very stubborn to raise amounts as they've been more conservative than I could remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 In words.... Looks like 12-16" for city and near areas 20"+ NW NJ, Pocs, 15-20" SW of there in PA, ~ 8-12" LI (inferred) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 "Model analysis which features no constructive discussion (GFS east, euro amped, etc)" If you want to talk about a snow map, either post it or if the site is not allowed, then at least describe it. No just saying it's good/bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 In words.... Looks like 12-16" for city and near areas 20"+ NW NJ, Pocs, 15-20" SW of there in PA, ~ 8-12" LI (inferred) If you blend all the models today LI could get 8-12" just in the morning thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 850 mb low on the GFS is about 25 miles further east than the Euro at 42 hrs. Ah, well, here's to hoping the GFS somehow schools the Euro for the sake of MBY lol. Of course, CCB often ends up farther west than modeled so even the Goofus isn't all that re-assuring. This will be a cool storm to watch play out in any case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 In words.... Looks like 12-16" for city and near areas 20"+ NW NJ, Pocs, 15-20" SW of there in PA, ~ 8-12" LI (inferred) 20 FEET for NW NJ!!! Sorry, couldn't resist... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Live discussion right now from a couple PSU faculty on the storm. Could provide some good info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Again, questions about "how much for X" are going to just be deleted on sight. Read the PBP and post constructive dialogue only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ah, well, here's to hoping the GFS somehow schools the Euro for the sake of MBY lol. Of course, CCB often ends up farther west than modeled so even the Goofus isn't all that re-assuring. This will be a cool storm to watch play out in any case. Yeah, the CCB on the euro looks much better the further west you go across the area since the coastal is so tucked in along with the 850 mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 In words.... Looks like 12-16" for city and near areas 20"+ NW NJ, Pocs, 15-20" SW of there in PA, ~ 8-12" LI (inferred) Oh wow. ..I like that lol. Check your pm by the way. Euro coming slightly se is definitely a great sign for those hoping for the big snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Do not for get the air is super dry! im sitting at -1 dew point right now at 22deg I will tell you right now this cold air is not budging i dont see a change over in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah, the CCB on the euro looks much better the further west you go across the area since the coastal is so tucked in along with the 850 mb low. Yup that's why the placement and track are so pivotal to where that CCB forms and dumps on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Any idea on sustained winds for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Do not for get the air is super dry! im sitting at -1 dew point right now at 22deg I will tell you right now this cold air is not budging i dont see a change over in my area. Air masses can change rather quickly. The current state says very little about the future, especially when there is no strong cold air damming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah, the CCB on the euro looks much better the further west you go across the area since the coastal is so tucked in along with the 850 mb low. Given trends so far, I'm not so optimistic about much additional snow from the backlash if the 500mb low doesn't lurch east along with the low towards the Cape. Maybe 1-3" for western LI, especially since we may be battling sleet or rain as well with it. But models are really adamant today on someone getting plastered with it, probably the I-287 corridor. The front end though looks ferocious and we may see 10" with that in 6-8 hours if the Euro's correct. That would introduce perhaps serious power and tree damage issues when it could then get infused with rain or sleet and wind blows the gloppy mess around. Probably roof damage issues too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 How Many miles off the coast is the Benchmark?? About 100 miles southeast of Montauk: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If the euro are trending more south and east doesn't that mean central jersey could be looking at 12" +.. I keep reading the euro has been most consistent this winter. Please any feedback is greatly appreciated. I'm hoping for a further east trend so we get more snow!!! Thank you guys.. I really enjoy this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Given trends so far, I'm not so optimistic about much additional snow from the backlash if the 500mb low doesn't lurch east along with the low towards the Cape. Maybe 1-3" for western LI, especially since we may be battling sleet or rain as well with it. But models are really adamant today on someone getting plastered with it, probably the I-287 corridor. The front end though looks ferocious and we may see 10" with that in 6-8 hours if the Euro's correct. That would introduce perhaps serious power and tree damage issues when it could then get infused with rain or sleet and wind blows the gloppy mess around. Probably roof damage issues too. And you think the same way on this. Im thinking its going to be hammering most of NJ,lower HV, SWCT and as it pivots ENE i dont think its going to hold its punch. Who knows i may be proven wrong but im going with either side of a foot from the front end dump alone and maybe 1-3" with backlash while the locations i just mentioned jackpot from that as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 And you think the same way on this. Im thinking its going to be hammering most of NJ,lower HV, SWCT and as it pivots ENE i dont think its going to hold its punch. Who knows i may be proven wrong but im going with either side of a foot from the front end dump alone and maybe 1-3" with backlash while the locations i just mentioned jackpot from that as well I think it's going to be hard to approach a foot-even the most aggressive models give us about an inch QPF before getting too warm, and given ratios that's probably 8-10". Over an inch liquid last Monday gave us 7-9". It's going to be a wet snow again with temps 30 or above mainly. After seeing the Euro I could think 8-12", but not more than that unless the CCB materially shifts east and really swipes us. Looks now like maybe 1-3" from it if we're lucky. It might actually be better for trees/power if we don't get much rain (although it may cause the snow to fall off tricky surfaces). It won't be warm enough to melt the snow and will just add weight. With enough wind it might cause a lot of damage. We really lucked out not having much wind last Monday, even so trees really sagged under the heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triniiphone Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 am i allowed to post this? this is pretty much all snow for nyc http://models.weatherbell.com/news/wrf_2014021212_ref_nmm_east.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If the euro are trending more south and east doesn't that mean central jersey could be looking at 12" +.. I keep reading the euro has been most consistent this winter. Please any feedback is greatly appreciated. I'm hoping for a further east trend so we get more snow!!! Thank you guys.. I really enjoy this for Trenton euro has 4-7 on front end and 2-5 for the ccb.....11-12 inches so yes on the euro 12+ in possible for cnj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Live discussion right now from a couple PSU faculty on the storm. Could provide some good info. awesome tip! thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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