sferic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Let's Discuss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS: 10:30; 4:30 (AM/PM) GEFS (Ensembles): 12:00, 6:00 (AM/PM) NAM: 9:00, 3:00 (AM/PM SREF: 8:20, 2:20 (AM/PM) RGEM: 10:20, 4:00 (AM/PM) GGEM (CMC): 11:00 (AM/PM UKMET: 10:40 (AM/PM) ECMWF (Euro/ECM): 12:45 (AM/PM) ECM ensembles: 3:00 (AM/PM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveTinNY Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 At this point, about 16 hours from the storm's initial impact on the southeast NY area, what's the best model/models to reference? I'm in central Rockland County, NY. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 At this point, about 16 hours from the storm's initial impact on the southeast NY area, what's the best model/models to reference? I'm in central Rockland County, NY. Thanks. The ECMWF hasnt budged from its track for two days but its the western most outlier compared to other guidance. Im lost as to what is right, but if you go with the most consistent one it is the EURO and its ensembles IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 At this point, about 16 hours from the storm's initial impact on the southeast NY area, what's the best model/models to reference? I'm in central Rockland County, NY. Thanks. Not sure that it matters -- you should do pretty well regardless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Check that....SREFs are tick warmer at 850mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 SREF a tick colder at 850mb They are northwest and warmer than the 03z run. But have a lot more precipitation that falls on the front end. Precipitation type goes to rain around 36 hours..and 1.00"+ precipitation has fallen at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 850mb low on the SREF is way too far inland for significant snow in the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 They are northwest and warmer than the 03z run. But have a lot more precipitation that falls on the front end. Precipitation type goes to rain around 36 hours..and 1.00"+ precipitation has fallen at that point.How much rain? I don't think it's going to be a lot it may be light at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 They are northwest and warmer than the 03z run. But have a lot more precipitation that falls on the front end. Precipitation type goes to rain around 36 hours..and 1.00"+ precipitation has fallen at that point. Yes, my apologies, I reversed the 3z and 9z runs....definitely warmer at 9z. But what a front end thump!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 They are northwest and warmer than the 03z run. But have a lot more precipitation that falls on the front end. Precipitation type goes to rain around 36 hours..and 1.00"+ precipitation has fallen at that point. Sounds similar to all the other models. Are surface temps still expected to get no higher than 34-35? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nam usually follows the sref right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Inland areas look good. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_042_mslp.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=09¶m=mslp&fhr=042&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nam usually follows the sref right? This year its had a tendency to not do so for some reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 850mb low on the SREF is way too far inland for significant snow in the NYC area. What does that mean exactly. Does that refer to the CCB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What does that mean exactly. Does that refer to the CCB?you want the 850 low to your east or that layer floods with mild air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What does that mean exactly. Does that refer to the CCB? To me it seems good for a substantial front end snow dumping for everyone and then a dryslot. The CCB thereafter is still up in the air. If it's anything like the Euro had last night, it could mean several more inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 you want the 850 low to your east or that layer floods with mild air We still get the front end thump though correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We still get the front end thump though correct. Yea and according to some of the hi-res models LI sees some very prolific rates for a while as while. Im pegging this as the best part of the storm with the CCB not being as impressive over LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The NAM looks weaker with the kicker. I think that may be part of the reason for the slight shift back to the west. The 00Z JMA FWIW nearly brings the low over Sandy Hook after 1.75"+ of QPF. NW NJ and points north and west stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We still get the front end thump though correct. Still look like 0.75 t o1.00 of snow prior to the changeover for areas in NENJ/NYC and back into CNJ. 4-8/5-10 of front end snow according to the SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Snow knowing on the door at 09z. Low looks wrapped up with intense QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's just going neutral tilt at hour 21, that's going to save this from tracking more to the north northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM is going to be a Very snowy run for all areas. Going se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Negative tilt at hour 24. The kicker looks to be staying more consolidated and up north into southern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hr 24 ripping from NYC-dca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM is going to be a Very snowy run for all areas. Going se The NAM has yet to have a run since yesterday that wasn't the snowiest of all the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Honestly, I dont think it matters how far west or east the low actually goes at this point to any large degree (barring a monster 100 shift west and an inland track). I think at this point everyone gets a great front end thump (4-8/5-10) and then most do warm at the 850 level (possibly at the surface) above 32 with several hours of snizzle, drizzle, light rain, sleet, etc. , then we'll see what happens with the CCB/ backend. If that is non-existent or is minimal a 4-8/5-10 storm is on the docket. If we get another 2-4/3-6 from that, thats where you get the 12-15" possibility that Upton is going with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If the NAM verifies this is going to come in as a wall of snow similar to what we saw last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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