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Feb 12-13 Obs for "The Storm That Wouldn't Say NO"


Herb@MAWS

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Those lower CCs (correlation coefficient values) lifting north of RIC are definitely where the pcpn is mixing with sleet. Ugh, let's hope the northward/nnw progression slows down overnight..

 

That big 40dbz band looks like heavy snow

 

Feb13_1210am_Radar.gif

 

 

 

 

 

The dual pol further south has the sleet line well south of that band near RIC

 

 

Feb13_1210am_Radar_RIC.gif

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:( hate that for you, I wanted a foot too, have a SIL and two younger nephews in Forest that have been waiting all winter for a good one.

 

 

It's mixed, but that's how warm layers work. Always think west.. 

 

8 isn't bad, we may get 2 inches of sleet and snow mix to get to 10, but WSET is report 6 so that's lower than my amount. 

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mcd0098.gif

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0098   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1117 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA TO THE NYC METRO AREA   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW    VALID 130517Z - 131015Z   SUMMARY...A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS   PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST MEGALOPOLIS FROM WASHINGTON DC TO NEW YORK   CITY THROUGH 12Z. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 IN/HR WILL BE LIKELY.   DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LOCAL STORM REPORTS CONFIRM   MULTIPLE HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAVE BEEN CENTERED ACROSS   SWRN INTO CNTRL VA AND FAR SRN WV. THIS CORRIDOR WILL SHIFT NEWD   THIS MORNING AS AN ARC OF INTENSE LOW-LEVEL WAA IS SHUNTED   DOWNSTREAM OF CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING NEAR THE ERN NC COAST. 21Z SREF   GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE 00Z NAM AND WRF-NSSL/NMM SUGGEST THE MOST   PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL LARGELY OVERSPREAD THE   MEGALOPOLIS THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY LIE JUST NW OF   THE TRANSITIONAL CORRIDOR TO RAIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL   PLAIN. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL FIRST INCLUDE THE   WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE METRO AREAS SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. FARTHER   NE...ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN FULL SATURATION OF   A VERY DRY 850-500 MB LAYER SAMPLED BY THE 00Z OKX/CHH RAOBS. WHILE   LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS...HEAVIER SNOW RATES   WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO THE PHILADELPHIA AND NEW YORK CITY   METRO AREAS BETWEEN 09-12Z.   ..GRAMS.. 02/13/2014   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...   LAT...LON   40837484 41057415 41087378 40887341 40697334 39867433               38997582 38037782 37717875 37947920 38647894 39557782               40217641 40667535 40837484 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0098.html
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