SeminoleSullivan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Based on qpf or mixing issues? I agree, lots of moisture headed NE, and out your way I would think you'd stay all snow or snow longer. I'm really shocked by their take on it - they reduced the WSW to 6-12 from 8-12. I just know that speaking with one of the State Highway folks earlier, they were told verbatim: 'Don't expect more than 4"' Most of them are apparently planning on being home by 3am with the end of snow based on what they were told. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Which of the short range models is traditionally the most accurate? HRRR......which is interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Which of the short range models is traditionally the most accurate? To be honest, the 'model accuracy' is based heavily on what they have seen lately. Which has been northern-stream dominant systems. Additionally, take QPF maps with a grain of salt. Snow ratios are going to be all over the place. Though for this system, I'm really keen on using the NAM for placement and HRRR for QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Also SPC Meso: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0098NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1117 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA TO THE NYC METRO AREACONCERNING...HEAVY SNOWVALID 130517Z - 131015ZSUMMARY...A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSSPARTS OF THE NORTHEAST MEGALOPOLIS FROM WASHINGTON DC TO NEW YORKCITY THROUGH 12Z. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 IN/HR WILL BE LIKELY.DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LOCAL STORM REPORTS CONFIRMMULTIPLE HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAVE BEEN CENTERED ACROSSSWRN INTO CNTRL VA AND FAR SRN WV. THIS CORRIDOR WILL SHIFT NEWDTHIS MORNING AS AN ARC OF INTENSE LOW-LEVEL WAA IS SHUNTEDDOWNSTREAM OF CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING NEAR THE ERN NC COAST. 21Z SREFGUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE 00Z NAM AND WRF-NSSL/NMM SUGGEST THE MOSTPERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL LARGELY OVERSPREAD THEMEGALOPOLIS THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY LIE JUST NW OFTHE TRANSITIONAL CORRIDOR TO RAIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTALPLAIN. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL FIRST INCLUDE THEWASHINGTON/BALTIMORE METRO AREAS SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. FARTHERNE...ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN FULL SATURATION OFA VERY DRY 850-500 MB LAYER SAMPLED BY THE 00Z OKX/CHH RAOBS. WHILELIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS...HEAVIER SNOW RATESWILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO THE PHILADELPHIA AND NEW YORK CITYMETRO AREAS BETWEEN 09-12Z...GRAMS.. 02/13/2014ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...LAT...LON 40837484 41057415 41087378 40887341 40697334 3986743338997582 38037782 37717875 37947920 38647894 3955778240217641 40667535 40837484 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 HRRR......which is interesting HRRR has had issues lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Recent Meso-Disco is showing 1-2" an hour, I'm thinking that those NE of Baltimore and SW of Shrewsbury see closer to 2+ an hour for some portions of this system. T-Snow is not out of the question in the areas of the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 RAP has a similar theme...but shifted a little bit NW from HR^3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 HRRR has had issues lately yeah still waiting for the 18" it gave me in the january 21st storm...and the 14" feb 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 HRRR has had issues lately Still, it raises ones eyebrows for sure. That output is before the wrap around tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Still, it raises ones eyebrows for sure. That output is before the wrap around tomorrow night. And the RAP threatens to support it...and then some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This was interesting in the meso: ...THE MOST PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL LARGELY OVERSPREAD THE MEGALOPOLIS THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY LIE JUST NW OFTHE TRANSITIONAL CORRIDOR TO RAIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTALPLAIN. The area that is highlighted in pink in the mesoscale discussion is 95 through CNJ. Does this mean that a transition to rain is not expected in this area, and that the "Transitional Corridor" will be SE of the highlighted zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 1/2" snow, has picked up to moderate now 18F i saved those old HRRR maps it can make the NAM look tame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthDoppler Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I have about the same as RedSky does here in Eastern Berks county. (good coating of snow and 18F) P.S. look at that plume of convection off of the southeast coast merge with the main shield of precipitation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Somehow still ripping snow here in Cape May, the heavier bands have been large and rimmed flakes. About 2.5". I think 1-95 will remain snow for the majority of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Don't know what to do if i go to sleep i might miss the best part of the storm unless i get up at 7 Radar looks like i will end up ripping good between 2 and 8 then we probably slack and mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Man that radar in DE is insane, and its crawling. The really heavy stuff should be in here by 2:30-3am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Someone check the Euro! Edit: Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Any reports from delaware that must be 2"+ rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The Euro actually is colder and has a broad "ccb" after the snow tonight that covers most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The Euro actually is colder and has a broad "ccb" after the snow tonight that covers most of the area. Thanks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Damn at the radar, Come to papa, Rib we're going to get thundersnow/sleet this morning, book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Euro is beautiful. Big front end, then hits us with the ccb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Euro has 16" at TTN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 ECM wants to HECS us somewhere the GFS is crying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Euro has 16" at TTN Famartin, How about east into Monmouth County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Ray hate to say it, but how much for Philly on EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This is starting to looks kinda special. Moderate snow and 19 in Malvern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Not sure if I'm aloud to post this, if not a mod can just take it down if not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Zoomed out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Euro has 16" at TTN Still stickin with 6-12 for TTN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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