SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Not much with temps at 33-34 Any rain at those temps would just get absorbed into the snowpack like with the last storm where it hung around 32-34 the whole time while there was a lot of rain. The snow pack was barely touched though I suspect it'll compact somewhat which would make things even worse if there's a lot of wet, heavy snow on roofs for example or trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This hasn't really been brought up much...but if we receive, say, 10 inches of snow and then get a half inch of rain....how much of that new 10" would melt? Very little. All that will happen is the snow will soak up whatever rain falls and then freeze solid when the temps crash. So if anything, for snowpack preservation it could be good for some sleet/rain to fall into it. The sleet/rain on Wed last week made the snowpack here pretty much inpenetrable. Hasn't shrunk at all since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Reports of thundersnow in Mays Landing NJ via twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Any rain at those temps would just get absorbed into the snowpack like with the last storm where it hung around 32-34 the whole time while there was a lot of rain. The snow pack was barely touched though I suspect it'll compact somewhat which would make things even worse if there's a lot of wet, heavy snow on roofs for example or trees. Whatever snowpack we have will contain at least 4" worth of liquid all said and done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Moderate snow here in Marlboro, NJ Monmouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This coastal front is scary for those right and I mean right on the water on li. Here a less then a mile from east bay we are holding the line currently with ne and light snow. This could be close. Someone se of the coastal is not going to be happy I don't see much to worry about here for us (and if there's a reason to worry, I'll be the first to do so). 20s extend all the way out to Calverton still. The E wind shift seems to be straddling the beaches from Fire Island east to maybe Quogue and then north. Even that will crash enough to allow a good hit of snow initially. For an idea of where the coastal front is headed, keep an eye on the Wxunderground map: http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This hasn't really been brought up much...but if we receive, say, 10 inches of snow and then get a half inch of rain....how much of that new 10" would melt? None, with temps in the mid-30s. The rain will easily be absorbed by the snowpack (even if we had no snow on the ground already, even 5" of snow would be enough to absorb 0.5" rain - would make for about 3-4" of slush with a ratio of about 3-4:1). Temperature is a far better driver of melting than rainfall (within reason). http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/dvn/downloads/backgrounder_DVN_Snow_Melt.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Oh ok sounds legit to me. the HRRR has the rain snow line about the right place right now.... and it gives us about 11 inches of snow. pure powder falling right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Jm those reports from fire island worried me. I try to not imby but it got touchy for a while as I briefly went se. Things seem to be falling into place now as I watch flake head sw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 the HRRR has the rain snow line about the right place right now.... and it gives us about 11 inches of snow. pure powder falling right now It's kind of hard to fathom we could see nearly or up to a foot by 9-10 am. The forecast still says 6-10" so I'm not sure what to believe but the HRRR has been deadly this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Wow, the radar out of Dover, DE looks incredible. And that is still ahead of the best lift that models say will be coming through by 7am. We are in for some roller coaster. Strap in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like the low has come ashore somewhere in SE NC, between Wilmington and Morehead City. Wilmington: 37F, 1005mb, NW winds 6mph Morehead City/Beaufort: 59F (WOW), 1002mb, ESE winds 15mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Wow, the radar out of Dover, DE looks incredible. And that is still ahead of the best lift that models say will be coming through by 7am. We are in for some roller coaster. Strap in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Jersey City,NJ Light powdery snow here. 20.1F with a DP of 16 good luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Any rain at those temps would just get absorbed into the snowpack like with the last storm where it hung around 32-34 the whole time while there was a lot of rain. The snow pack was barely touched though I suspect it'll compact somewhat which would make things even worse if there's a lot of wet, heavy snow on roofs for example or trees. I think there's a real threat for widespread power outages and tree damage and even roof collapse near the coast with the wetter snow expected here, plus strong wind gusts as the low deepens. The snow already has 2" of water in it and we could easily add another 1.5" tomorrow, with temps nowhere near warm enough to melt it, and a freeze as the low departs. A lot of flat roofs here still have 8-9" of snow on them, which could become 18" by the time this storm's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Very little. All that will happen is the snow will soak up whatever rain falls and then freeze solid when the temps crash. So if anything, for snowpack preservation it could be good for some sleet/rain to fall into it. The sleet/rain on Wed last week made the snowpack here pretty much inpenetrable. Hasn't shrunk at all since then. Snow cover here is at 9" and it hasn't changed for days. The 1.3" that fell on Sunday has only compressed to about 0.9, which is something because it was 14:1 fluff. Below that is 8" of solid snow. Actually there is about a 3" layer of very hard snow/ice, and the old snow under that is somewhat softer. It'll be interesting to see how they layer. Any rain heavy enough to soak through the front end snow, if it rains enough to do so, is going to hit the old layer of ice beneath the new snow. Not sure how that will react / pool up / run off, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It's kind of hard to fathom we could see nearly or up to a foot by 9-10 am. The forecast still says 6-10" so I'm not sure what to believe but the HRRR has been deadly this season. looking out the window currently + looking at the radar + looking at the HRRR = right now i'm totally buying it. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Richmond Hill, NY Flurries/Light Snow About a trace 24.4F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Very light snow 26. North Merrick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Meso discussion http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0098.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Cars are dusted here in Long Beach. For a brief period of rain/sleet that may not amount to more than some showers, trust me, what we're about to witness is beyond worth it. Getting more pumped by the minute looking at the radar down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Cars are dusted here in Long Beach. For a brief period of rain/sleet that may not amount to more than some showers, trust me, what we're about to witness is beyond worth it. Getting more pumped by the minute looking at the radar down south. Was just gona post the stuff around Dover and just S looks nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Just following the thread from DC area, looks like what people are reporting is the initial heavy band is insanely heavy snow, 3-4" in less than 2 hrs. Then there has been a switch to sleet, now reported in the Richmond metro. We'll see if it progresses up 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 24.6F Snow literally on the door step. Should be an awesome time ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Just following the thread from DC area, looks like what people are reporting is the initial heavy band is insanely heavy snow, 3-4" in less than 2 hrs. Then there has been a switch to sleet, now reported in the Richmond metro. We'll see if it progresses up 95. Models have shown a bad snow cutoff to essentially nothing over the Delmarva, and hugging the immediate coast up to maybe ACY, and increasing rapidly north and west of there. I'm sure DT is flipping out now in Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Models have shown a bad snow cutoff to essentially nothing over the Delmarva, and hugging the immediate coast up to maybe ACY, and increasing rapidly north and west of there. I'm sure DT is flipping out now in Richmond. Yea, lows that actually make landfall in mainland NC usually don't yield optimal snowfalls along 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Just following the thread from DC area, looks like what people are reporting is the initial heavy band is insanely heavy snow, 3-4" in less than 2 hrs. Then there has been a switch to sleet, now reported in the Richmond metro. We'll see if it progresses up 95. Looks like that was modeled Richmond Overnight Snow and sleet before 2am, then sleet between 2am and 4am, then freezing rain after 4am. Low around 29. North wind around 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like that was modeled Richmond Overnight Snow and sleet before 2am, then sleet between 2am and 4am, then freezing rain after 4am. Low around 29. North wind around 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Yea, they are about 10hrs ahead of us I would guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZNSTATED Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Out in Shirley long island temp shot up 7 degrees 26-33 in 90 minutes. Davis weather station set up. Anyone else spike up like that. Bent about that... geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Out in Shirley long island temp shot up 7 degrees 26-33 in 90 minutes. Davis weather station set up. Anyone else spike up like that. Bent about that... geez 0c 850s are still way south, you should def start as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.