SleetStormNJ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Jm.....so you actually see near here around EWR getting over a foot? I'm thinking a bit more than half a foot, but 12" seems pretty high. Hopefully I'm wrong !! I think we get that plus more if the back end works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 If I was to guess at a number for us I'd say 8-9". If the Euro today is right with its colder trend, we may be closer to 12". Ratios might be high enough early in the storm to average overall at 10-1. Once the temp increases and the snow becomes wetter, we will likely go to like 9-1. 8-12" for NYC sounds good, 12"+ immediately west of the GWB. The Twin Forks I think come in with less than 6", maybe only a few inches. There, the rain might really wash away most of their snow from this. For us, we could have a nearly 18" snowpack that freezes into cement tomorrow night/Friday. Sounds awesome to me. And if the CCB actually materializes here, who knows, but I think even if it comes we have to fight off sleet/rain for too long for it to add very much, maybe it could drop 1-3". Man JM I love he enthusiasm and hope you are right. But using a big dose of south shore climatology and a euro track and I just think the mid levels get us quicker than we think south of the southern state. I have to stick with 3-5 before the changeover and who knows what on the back end. North of the southern state could be more. I think every mile inland matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I may have to up my guesses based on the NAM.... It looks pretty darn good. Let's hope it holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Man JM I love he enthusiasm and hope you are right. But using a big dose of south shore climatology and a euro track and I just think the mid levels get us quicker than we think south of the southern state. I have to stick with 3-5 before the changeover and who knows what on the back end. North of the southern state could be more. I think every mile inland matters. I like climo allot but when it comes to the southern state rule. This is a little different then normal in that the precip comes in as a solid wall ad goes to town across the board. I just don't see that much difference between north and south shores for the initial slug. After ten the south shore will do it's thing (sleet to rain) and the north shore could hang on for a couple extra inches. Not before the ss sees 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Man JM I love he enthusiasm and hope you are right. But using a big dose of south shore climatology and a euro track and I just think the mid levels get us quicker than we think south of the southern state. I have to stick with 3-5 before the changeover and who knows what on the back end. North of the southern state could be more. I think every mile inland matters. In a situation like this I don't think that's really true. None of the models get any real chance of changing from snow until well over 0.75" liquid has fallen. That right there could be 8-9" if you take a middle ground (crazy models like the NAM have well over 1" beforehand). I think there will be a time in the early morning, like 7-9am when we will be getting demolished. 6" can pile up in a situation like that in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Manhattan has barely any real snow left, though the remaining glacier is surprisingly substantial, and measures over 6" on many sidewalks. Haven't seen anything as resilient (& disruptive for pedestrians) in quite some time. That scene looks like much more snow despite the same amounts falling. The next morning it's always like nothing has happened -- even after each of the two 10" storms this season. Perhaps tomorrow will be different. I work in the city. There's more snow than you would think, which is causing foot traffic to be extremely chaotic, especially when you're running for a bus. Single file in the millions? I've watched sanitation crews chopping away at the same corners for the past two days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Light snow well into the northern suburbs of Philly now...snow will be in your region very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I have a surface wind/ north/northeast………. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I have a surface wind/ north/northeast………. Garden City Nassau Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Guys lots of sleet now being reported in most of NC and lots of VA east of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwoman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 it's been pinging in rahleigh for the past two hours now. I have friends and family down there....does this mean anything up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Radar looks nice. 23.7F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIcoastalWX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Sorry to jump in to this region… but my weather conditions are more closer to that of E LI than to that of SNE… So... You may want to take note of the quick warming going on out this way… Temps have steadily been on the increase since around 7:30pm… winds have veered from ESE to SE and now S and have noticeably increased in the last 20 minutes or so. Most of E LI and now coastal RI/coastal SE CT are near or slightly above freezing. Much warmer much quicker than I had expected or was forecasted. Obviously a pretty marked and strong Coastal Front setting up… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NE wind here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYI91Tavares Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Sorry to jump in to this region… but my weather conditions are more closer to that of E LI than to that of SNE… So... You may want to take note of the quick warming going on out this way… Temps have steadily been on the increase since around 7:30pm… winds have veered from ESE to SE and now S and have noticeably increased in the last 20 minutes or so. Most of E LI and now coastal RI/coastal SE CT are near or slightly above freezing. Much warmer much quicker than I had expected or was forecasted. Obviously a pretty marked and strong Coastal Front setting up… I'm in Suffolk County, my winds are out of the NE, and I've dropped a degree to 24 in the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Light Snow in Toms River, NJ....it'll be to you guys in no time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Sorry to jump in to this region… but my weather conditions are more closer to that of E LI than to that of SNE… So... You may want to take note of the quick warming going on out this way… Temps have steadily been on the increase since around 7:30pm… winds have veered from ESE to SE and now S and have noticeably increased in the last 20 minutes or so. Most of E LI and now coastal RI/coastal SE CT are near or slightly above freezing. Much warmer much quicker than I had expected or was forecasted. Obviously a pretty marked and strong Coastal Front setting up… Sounds rough, brah... fortunately, I'm 24/12 with a NE wind at 8 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Sorry to jump in to this region… but my weather conditions are more closer to that of E LI than to that of SNE… So... You may want to take note of the quick warming going on out this way… Temps have steadily been on the increase since around 7:30pm… winds have veered from ESE to SE and now S and have noticeably increased in the last 20 minutes or so. Most of E LI and now coastal RI/coastal SE CT are near or slightly above freezing. Much warmer much quicker than I had expected or was forecasted. Obviously a pretty marked and strong Coastal Front setting up… Yep south shore of LI past Westhampton now is above freezing. Here our temps have started rising as well, looks like since about 8:00pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 18/10 here with a light NE at 3mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Sorry to jump in to this region… but my weather conditions are more closer to that of E LI than to that of SNE… So... You may want to take note of the quick warming going on out this way… Temps have steadily been on the increase since around 7:30pm… winds have veered from ESE to SE and now S and have noticeably increased in the last 20 minutes or so. Most of E LI and now coastal RI/coastal SE CT are near or slightly above freezing. Much warmer much quicker than I had expected or was forecasted. Obviously a pretty marked and strong Coastal Front setting up… Yes u can see it here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Snow racing to the N... looks like it's in the NYC metro in the next 30 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Snowing in Lakewood, NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The temp rise was forecast. That is not surprising. Once the precip comes in and gets heavier we wet bulb and it holds steady until the precip starts to decrease. Trust the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Snow racing to the N... looks like it's in the NYC metro in the next 30 mins Definitely, it's booking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yep south shore of LI past Westhampton now is above freezing. Here our temps have started rising as well, looks like since about 8:00pm. Pretty well modeled on the 4k NAM , When the initial precip moves in the rain , when it gets heavier even they will snow for a bit . Then they are the 1 st too rain , No such luck for the city . Once our precip starts temps will fall Low DP and heavy snow bring temps down 1st . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Sorry to jump in to this region… but my weather conditions are more closer to that of E LI than to that of SNE… So... You may want to take note of the quick warming going on out this way… Temps have steadily been on the increase since around 7:30pm… winds have veered from ESE to SE and now S and have noticeably increased in the last 20 minutes or so. Most of E LI and now coastal RI/coastal SE CT are near or slightly above freezing. Much warmer much quicker than I had expected or was forecasted. Obviously a pretty marked and strong Coastal Front setting up… That was to be expected and models have been picking up on that for a while. There's going to be a rough snow cutoff from a line approximately Bellport/Shirley northeast to maybe Riverhead, where this is happening, and then probably the SE corner of CT and southernmost RI. Places on the wrong side of that wind shift line probably get a 3-6" type event then rain. Hopefully some of the snow there lasts through the rain due to the temp not spiking past 36 or so. But yeah, rough going. The same dilemma extends east through a good chunk of SE MA, though stopping maybe a little short of Boston. I'd wager Central Park beats Logan this time by a fair amount (although depending on what mood the zookeeper's in, I should maybe take that back), given the better antecedent conditions we have and better chance to get some of the CCB snow later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Flurries have started in Lincroft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 fwiw I'm at 18* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 In Dyker heights for this one so I can get to work in the AM 23 /19 winds ENE . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 25 in Long Beach with a light north wind. We can see the battle line here coming up nicely and that's why it's very premature to panic over snow anywhere in western Suffolk or Nassau when we should be on the good side of that line for quite some time to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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