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2/13/2014 Major Coastal Storm Observations


Rtd208

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If I was to guess at a number for us I'd say 8-9". If the Euro today is right with its colder trend, we may be closer to 12". Ratios might be high enough early in the storm to average overall at 10-1. Once the temp increases and the snow becomes wetter, we will likely go to like 9-1. 8-12" for NYC sounds good, 12"+ immediately west of the GWB. The Twin Forks I think come in with less than 6", maybe only a few inches. There, the rain might really wash away most of their snow from this. For us, we could have a nearly 18" snowpack that freezes into cement tomorrow night/Friday. Sounds awesome to me. And if the CCB actually materializes here, who knows, but I think even if it comes we have to fight off sleet/rain for too long for it to add very much, maybe it could drop 1-3".

Man JM I love he enthusiasm and hope you are right. But using a big dose of south shore climatology and a euro track and I just think the mid levels get us quicker than we think south of the southern state. I have to stick with 3-5 before the changeover and who knows what on the back end. North of the southern state could be more. I think every mile inland matters.

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Man JM I love he enthusiasm and hope you are right. But using a big dose of south shore climatology and a euro track and I just think the mid levels get us quicker than we think south of the southern state. I have to stick with 3-5 before the changeover and who knows what on the back end. North of the southern state could be more. I think every mile inland matters.

I like climo allot but when it comes to the southern state rule. This is a little different then normal in that the precip comes in as a solid wall ad goes to town across the board. I just don't see that much difference between north and south shores for the initial slug. After ten the south shore will do it's thing (sleet to rain) and the north shore could hang on for a couple extra inches. Not before the ss sees 6-8"

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Man JM I love he enthusiasm and hope you are right. But using a big dose of south shore climatology and a euro track and I just think the mid levels get us quicker than we think south of the southern state. I have to stick with 3-5 before the changeover and who knows what on the back end. North of the southern state could be more. I think every mile inland matters.

In a situation like this I don't think that's really true. None of the models get any real chance of changing from snow until well over 0.75" liquid has fallen. That right there could be 8-9" if you take a middle ground (crazy models like the NAM have well over 1" beforehand). I think there will be a time in the early morning, like 7-9am when we will be getting demolished. 6" can pile up in a situation like that in a few hours.

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Manhattan has barely any real snow left, though the remaining glacier is surprisingly substantial, and measures over 6" on many sidewalks. Haven't seen anything as resilient (& disruptive for pedestrians) in quite some time. That scene looks like much more snow despite the same amounts falling.

The next morning it's always like nothing has happened -- even after each of the two 10" storms this season. Perhaps tomorrow will be different.

I work in the city. There's more snow than you would think, which is causing foot traffic to be extremely chaotic, especially when you're running for a bus. Single file in the millions? I've watched sanitation crews chopping away at the same corners for the past two days...

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Sorry to jump in to this region… but my weather conditions are more closer to that of E LI than to that of SNE…  So...

 

You may want to take note of the quick warming going on out this way… 

 

Temps have steadily been on the increase since around 7:30pm… winds have veered from ESE to SE and now S and have noticeably increased in the last 20 minutes or so.

 

Most of E LI and now coastal RI/coastal SE CT are near or slightly above freezing.  Much warmer much quicker than I had expected or was forecasted.  Obviously a pretty marked and strong Coastal Front setting up… 

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Sorry to jump in to this region… but my weather conditions are more closer to that of E LI than to that of SNE…  So...

 

You may want to take note of the quick warming going on out this way… 

 

Temps have steadily been on the increase since around 7:30pm… winds have veered from ESE to SE and now S and have noticeably increased in the last 20 minutes or so.

 

Most of E LI and now coastal RI/coastal SE CT are near or slightly above freezing.  Much warmer much quicker than I had expected or was forecasted.  Obviously a pretty marked and strong Coastal Front setting up… 

 

I'm in Suffolk County, my winds are out of the NE, and I've dropped a degree to 24 in the past hour. 

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Sorry to jump in to this region… but my weather conditions are more closer to that of E LI than to that of SNE… So...

You may want to take note of the quick warming going on out this way…

Temps have steadily been on the increase since around 7:30pm… winds have veered from ESE to SE and now S and have noticeably increased in the last 20 minutes or so.

Most of E LI and now coastal RI/coastal SE CT are near or slightly above freezing. Much warmer much quicker than I had expected or was forecasted. Obviously a pretty marked and strong Coastal Front setting up…

Sounds rough, brah... fortunately, I'm 24/12 with a NE wind at 8 mph.

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Sorry to jump in to this region… but my weather conditions are more closer to that of E LI than to that of SNE…  So...

 

You may want to take note of the quick warming going on out this way… 

 

Temps have steadily been on the increase since around 7:30pm… winds have veered from ESE to SE and now S and have noticeably increased in the last 20 minutes or so.

 

Most of E LI and now coastal RI/coastal SE CT are near or slightly above freezing.  Much warmer much quicker than I had expected or was forecasted.  Obviously a pretty marked and strong Coastal Front setting up… 

 

Yep south shore of LI past Westhampton now is above freezing.  Here our temps have started rising as well, looks like since about 8:00pm.

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Sorry to jump in to this region… but my weather conditions are more closer to that of E LI than to that of SNE…  So...

 

You may want to take note of the quick warming going on out this way… 

 

Temps have steadily been on the increase since around 7:30pm… winds have veered from ESE to SE and now S and have noticeably increased in the last 20 minutes or so.

 

Most of E LI and now coastal RI/coastal SE CT are near or slightly above freezing.  Much warmer much quicker than I had expected or was forecasted.  Obviously a pretty marked and strong Coastal Front setting up…

Yes u can see it here

post-745-0-58310100-1392263039_thumb.jpg

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Yep south shore of LI past Westhampton now is above freezing.  Here our temps have started rising as well, looks like since about 8:00pm.

Pretty well modeled on the 4k NAM , When the initial precip moves in the rain , when it gets heavier even they will snow for a bit . Then

they are the 1 st too rain , No such luck for the city .

 

Once our precip starts temps will fall  Low DP and heavy snow bring temps down 1st .

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Sorry to jump in to this region… but my weather conditions are more closer to that of E LI than to that of SNE…  So...

 

You may want to take note of the quick warming going on out this way… 

 

Temps have steadily been on the increase since around 7:30pm… winds have veered from ESE to SE and now S and have noticeably increased in the last 20 minutes or so.

 

Most of E LI and now coastal RI/coastal SE CT are near or slightly above freezing.  Much warmer much quicker than I had expected or was forecasted.  Obviously a pretty marked and strong Coastal Front setting up… 

That was to be expected and models have been picking up on that for a while. There's going to be a rough snow cutoff from a line approximately Bellport/Shirley northeast to maybe Riverhead, where this is happening, and then probably the SE corner of CT and southernmost RI. Places on the wrong side of that wind shift line probably get a 3-6" type event then rain. Hopefully some of the snow there lasts through the rain due to the temp not spiking past 36 or so. But yeah, rough going. The same dilemma extends east through a good chunk of SE MA, though stopping maybe a little short of Boston. I'd wager Central Park beats Logan this time by a fair amount (although depending on what mood the zookeeper's in, I should maybe take that back), given the better antecedent conditions we have and better chance to get some of the CCB snow later.

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