SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Am optimistic but can't shake the feeling of getting screwed (sleet, more warmth), which is why I'm expecting 6" max with the front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Will the ratios be higher because it's so cold before the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 the RAP looks like it quite simple HAMMERS NENJ/NYC/LI with 2-3" per hour from 9am until noon with a total 18-hour total by the end of it's run at 0.80" qpf for most, all snow. Verbatim it would be 6-10" of snow. I think it changes over short after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Will the ratios be higher because it's so cold before the storm?no, surface temps are immaterial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 the RAP looks like it quite simple HAMMERS NENJ/NYC/LI with 2-3" per hour from 9am until noon with a total 18-hour total by the end of it's run at 0.80" qpf for most, all snow. Verbatim it would be 6-10" of snow. I think it changes over short after that Its precipitation type is still showing snow even just south of Staten Island at hour 18 with heavy banding over the area. Means absolutely nothing at this range, just noting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Someone on the south shore in Suffolk will be royally screwed this may be close to 12/2000 eastern Suffolk or where I am in SW Suffolk and what are you getting at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 eastern Suffolk or where I am in SW Suffolk and what are you getting at? New 23z HRRR came in a tad colder, holds off mixing on the south shore longer, only goes out to 9am though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 eastern Suffolk or where I am in SW Suffolk and what are you getting at? The Twin Forks may not be snow for very long at all-most models, even the ones that have gotten colder have had them changing over early. I think where you are is fine and especially further west into Nassau County and NYC. It's after 10am that I think the warm air and dryslot finally win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 SREf are a tick east, colder, and dryer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Lol message from Town of North Castle (where Armonk, NY is): Good Evening, The Town is preparing for our 15th snow event in this New Year. We have already received over 58 inches of snow and continuous sub-freezing temperatures. Starting early Thursday morning we expect another 6 to 15 inches over an 18 hour period continuing into Thursday night/early Friday morning, with a possible change to rain in the middle. The following is some basic information for your reference: Road conditions will be very dangerous, so please use your best judgment. We ask that you please refrain from driving unless absolutely necessary. Our Town employees have been working very hard to keep our roads cleared and our trucks on the road during this severe weather. Staying off the roads will help our crews to keep the roads clear and safe. Our Police Department/Office of Emergency Management issues frequent storm updates - please sign up on Nixle (www.nixle.com) and register your email, cell phone, or both, for free updates. This is an excellent way to stay informed up- to-the-minute. Administrative staff may be limited at Town Hall on Thursday, February 13th. In case of an emergency, please call the North Castle Police Department at 273-9500 or call 911. In the event of a power outage, as always, please call Con Ed directly at 1 (800)752-6633. Thank you in advance for your continued cooperation and patience. We are 37 days from the first day of spring! Surprised they have bee keeping snow accumulation records! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The Twin Forks may not be snow for very long at all-most models, even the ones that have gotten colder have had them changing over early. I think where you are is fine and especially further west into Nassau County and NYC. It's after 10am that I think the warm air and dryslot finally win. okay got a little jittery. like you im banking on the front end to overperform and the CCB to not be as impressive as modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Well temps went up two degrees so far to 24 so I doubt the below forecast cold means much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 okay got a little jittery. like you im banking on the front end to overperform and the CCB to not be as impressive as modeled Don't worry so much dude.....it's me....not you that will be screwed.....awaiting incoming deluge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 okay got a little jittery. like you im banking on the front end to overperform and the CCB to not be as impressive as modeled If I was to guess at a number for us I'd say 8-9". If the Euro today is right with its colder trend, we may be closer to 12". Ratios might be high enough early in the storm to average overall at 10-1. Once the temp increases and the snow becomes wetter, we will likely go to like 9-1. 8-12" for NYC sounds good, 12"+ immediately west of the GWB. The Twin Forks I think come in with less than 6", maybe only a few inches. There, the rain might really wash away most of their snow from this. For us, we could have a nearly 18" snowpack that freezes into cement tomorrow night/Friday. Sounds awesome to me. And if the CCB actually materializes here, who knows, but I think even if it comes we have to fight off sleet/rain for too long for it to add very much, maybe it could drop 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Jm.....so you actually see near here around EWR getting over a foot? I'm thinking a bit more than half a foot, but 12" seems pretty high. Hopefully I'm wrong !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 23z HRRR is absolute demolishment on the south shore at 9am. Also through CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Jm.....so you actually see near here around EWR getting over a foot? I'm thinking a bit more than half a foot, but 12" seems pretty high. Hopefully I'm wrong !! It would be more of a SW/NE orientation, so EWR would get the same as Central Park, which could be like 10-11", but we'll see. West Milford seems like a good jackpot town, someone up there could see 18"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 23z HRRR is absolute demolishment on the south shore at 9am. Also through CNJ. I know it goes to town on us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Earthlight, Idk if the HRRR accounts for sleet on that animated radar map....The 925mb freezing line is a worry to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It would be more of a SW/NE orientation, so EWR would get the same as Central Park, which could be like 10-11", but we'll see. West Milford seems like a good jackpot town, someone up there could see 18"+. West milford is a great town to jackpot, they usually do. Perfect area for the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Earthlight, Idk if the HRRR accounts for sleet on that animated radar map....The 925mb freezing line is a worry to me. It doesnt cross our area until 10am on the HRRR, plenty of time to thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Any gif of the latest HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The RAP is still at the end of its range and can change around quite a bit-just keep that in mind. I hope the colder trends on models today up here will end up verifying. The huge dynamics that come through between 7 and 10AM should also do a lot to hold back the warming. It doesn't appear that we will really warm anywhere except eastern Suffolk until the dryslot is already almost in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Most of us should be snowing by midnight. The snow is making good headway through the DC/Balt area already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Jm, why arent you a red tagger, lol 22/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Most of us should be snowing by midnight. The snow is making good headway through the DC/Balt area already. you've been pretty good with this storm thus far along with another handful of people on here as well. I vote a red tag for you as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The RAP is still at the end of its range and can change around quite a bit-just keep that in mind. I hope the colder trends on models today up here will end up verifying. The huge dynamics that come through between 7 and 10AM should also do a lot to hold back the warming. It doesn't appear that we will really warm anywhere except eastern Suffolk until the dryslot is already almost in. Yea we still need a few more hours until the RAP and HRRR get deadly but check out the lighting and wind signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Thru 9am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Is it me or we should start seeing the first flakes in the metro area by 1030 looks like it's flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Light snow has begun here in Media Delaware County PA 23f 13 miles wsw of the Philadelphia International Airport 3 hours ahead of schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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