WE GOT HIM Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My forecast low was 25F, and I'm already at 23.8F in Bay Ridge. Im at 22 but temps are starting to uptick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldalex Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 im officially now concerned of sleet with the 925mb map that was posted I wouldn't be too concerned YET about sleet. None of the other models indicated any issues in terms of sleet. Also, we're just getting in to the edge of the HRRR's range. Give it a few hours and see what it looks like. Tonight's 0Z suite and now casting will be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 im officially now concerned of sleet with the 925mb map that was posted [/quot] im worried as well with the hrrr map. Went to checkout the southern states thread with the actual obs and lots of people complaining about unforecasted sleet and freezing rain when it was supposed to b snow....we'll see how that plays out up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ive seen the rain snow line in some tv forecasts go as north as the northern most tip of nj. The same types of forecasts have Monmouth county nj only receiving as little as 3-6 inches. Is this possible? I dont believe its going up to nearly 40 degrees tomorrow being on the west side of the low. Can anyone school me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 23 currently. Already below forecast low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just started in DC and Maryland around there...T minus ~ 4 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 im worried as well with the hrrr map. Went to checkout the southern states thread with the actual obs and lots of people complaining about unforecasted sleet and freezing rain when it was supposed to b snow....we'll see how that plays out up here... Yea nice catch I went down there myself a picked out a few quote...seem like there is deff more ice than was foretasted down there. This storm is very much a nowcast switched to a mix with moderate IP now...hearing the pingers.....anyone have some ideas how long it might last in the btown GSO area until the warm nose gets pulled back? ZR mixing in with the sleet now. Have to say, I did not expect this. We had no mention in our forecast of 3+ hours of freezing rain that we have now had had since 3pm or so in northern pickens county. Snow all day with a little sleet possible mixed in was the forecast with around 8-10 inches of snow. Had about 2 inches of snow and snowing heavily around 2pm and then it started sleeting for about an hour. Moderate zr now and temps are slowly rising while everyone else's temps are dropping?? The WAA almost always develops in the far nw corner of sc and really hurts this area during most winter storms. Any idea if or when the warm air bubble will take up residence somewhere else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 In Virginia they are actually reporting a powdery fairly high ratio snow (12-15:1)....that is interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I wonder how much those thunderstorms over Florida are messing with the SLP it doesn't look that healthy right now, They weren't modeled to be has heavy as they are right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I wonder how much those thunderstorms over Florida are messing with the SLP it doesn't look that healthy right now, They weren't modeled to be has heavy as they are right now. I'm actually down in Fort Lauderdale now awaiting that squall line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 What you actually have right now is a meso low I believe that has formed within the MCS crossing Florida. That's why all of a sudden you have 3 separate lows showing up. The NAM nailed this. Def a meso low from the squall line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm actually down in Fort Lauderdale now awaiting that squall line O wow thats awesome, I'm about ready for severe thunderstorm season myself. Let us know how it goes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Models do not have the 925 line all that far ahead of 850 up here but after 10am Id say, it becomes a concern for the coast if it is not snowing heavily. It is definitely something to consider and why you should look at a full sounding rather than just the 850 line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Stay safe Goose. That warm layer will probably change some people over to sleet earlier than they expect. My area could go from thumping snow to heavy sleet before we change to a little rain then shut off completely for a while (4,5,6 hours or more), while inland areas continue to snow . Then await whatever the CCB beings the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Stay safe Goose. That warm layer will probably change some people over to sleet earlier than they expect. My area could go from thumping snow to heavy sleet before we change to a little rain then shut off completely for a while (4,5,6 hours or more), while inland areas continue to snow . Then await whatever the CCB beings the area. Where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Where are you located? Nassau Co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Just thought I would post these radars here. Very important for tracking the rain snow line during the morning and when the CCB starts pushing through. NJ, NYC, PA http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-12 Long Island, SNE http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=OKX-N0C-1-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Here is a snippet from LWX.. A COMPARISON OF 12Z/18Z RAOBS TO INITIALIZATION OF THE 12Z MODELSAND THEIR 6-H FORECASTS INDICATE THE GFS/NAM WERE TOO FLAT WITH THELOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS ANDDOWNSTREAM THERMAL RIDGE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SATELLITE WATERVAPOR LOOP INDICATED THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALREADYCLOSING OVER ERN NE-KS...WHICH WAS EARLIER/FASTER THAN MOST OF THE12Z GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED. THESE ERRORS PROVIDE EVIDENCE TOWARD AMORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW...CLOSER TO THE PAST FEW RUNSOF THE ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like its finally losing the low over the Thunderstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Here is a snippet from LWX.. A COMPARISON OF 12Z/18Z RAOBS TO INITIALIZATION OF THE 12Z MODELS AND THEIR 6-H FORECASTS INDICATE THE GFS/NAM WERE TOO FLAT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND DOWNSTREAM THERMAL RIDGE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALREADY CLOSING OVER ERN NE-KS...WHICH WAS EARLIER/FASTER THAN MOST OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED. THESE ERRORS PROVIDE EVIDENCE TOWARD A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW...CLOSER TO THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF. Thats good news for your area but not for the coast my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Thats good news for your area but not for the coast my friend. I actually think this might help with the CCB for NJ/NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Thats good news for your area but not for the coast my friend. Yea was wondering about the smiley face then realized where he is located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I actually think this might help with the CCB for NJ/NYC area.We want a blowup of the upper lows when they come by us. It's not relevant for that what's happening now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 HRRR's idea through 8:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like another brutally cold night up here. its been below zero the past few nights and about to drop into the single digits right now. 10.4/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We want a blowup of the upper lows when they come by us. It's not relevant for that what's happening now. Yeah that's true, well we'll just have to see. Thought it was supposed to start after midnight but it's already knocking on NJ's door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 HRRR's idea through 8:00 hrrr_2014021222_ref_nyc.gif WOW! LI gets smoked john! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I can see LI getting a foot from the initial thump before change or dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 HRRR's idea through 8:00 hrrr_2014021222_ref_nyc.gif Someone on the south shore in Suffolk will be royally screwed this may be close to 12/2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Someone on the south shore in Suffolk will be royally screwed this may be close to 12/2000 Out east sure. But they weren't expected to get much anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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