96blizz Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 So much for the GFS. Classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NYC is about to get nailed in the next 15 minutes by a 35-40 DBZ band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Beautiful heavy snow out there now...probably 2" per hour....just gonna enjoy this while it's here....awesome huge flakes accumulating quickly....next few hours will be quite a ride for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 50dbz band now makeing its way north, south of LI. Probably the last band before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 rain sleet line chuggin north (about 25 miles shout of bk) lets hope it hits a wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bullfr2121 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 6 inches in Branchburg so far and probably 2" per hour rates...this is awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 When I read no way the coast gets 12 I died laughing - check out the moisture train coming up from the Atlantic towards NYC , that's 3 hours of this . Plus 5 in so many spots . Don't think 12 is a problem On my radar scope that line south of LI is now producing 50dbz (bright red echos ) i can only assume when that gets up here it'll be even more impressive than this band coming through currently. 12" for the coast shouldn be a problem given how the dynamics and R/S not budging contrary to some saying its "chugging" north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Computer Guy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Snowing buckets outside here in Harlem. Could barely see more than two blocks away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I just love how the "lulls" in between bands is 20-30 dbz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Rain Snow Line Looks To Be Flying NorthWest. Not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I just woke up.. OMG I have never seen flakes so big.. its so beautiful..and awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0099NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0700 AM CST THU FEB 13 2014AREAS AFFECTED...MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATESCONCERNING...HEAVY SNOWVALID 131300Z - 131800ZSUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2 IN/HRLIKELY...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THECOASTAL NORTHEASTERN STATES THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL INTENSIFYESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK/NYC METRO INTO SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A TRANSITIONAL MIX OFPRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR IN COASTAL PLAIN AREAS THROUGH THEAFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITHIN 50-75 MILES OF THE ATLANTIC.DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFTEAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANSEARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE READILYEVIDENT OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY. ADEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE NC OUTER BANKS AS OF12Z...WITH STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OCCURRING NEAR/JUST ABOVE THESURFACE IN COASTAL AREAS AS PER WSR-88D VWP/12Z UPPER AIR DATA.THIS SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD TRANSITION OFCONSIDERABLE UVV FROM THE DELMARVA VICINITY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLANDBY MIDDAY. AS PER 12Z OBSERVED REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...SNOW WILL BE THEDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS...WITHSATURATED MID-LEVEL DENDRITIC LAYERS /SUCH AS 12Z ALBANY ANDNYC-LONG ISLAND SOUNDINGS/ CONDUCIVE FOR BOUTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVYSNOW FROM FAR EASTERN PA/NORTHERN NJ INTO SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND.IN NEAR-COASTAL AREAS...ROUGHLY WITHIN 50-75 MILES OF THEATLANTIC...A TRANSITIONAL MIX OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTEDTHROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE LONG ISLAND 12ZOBSERVED SOUNDING WAS ONLY MARGINALLY SUB-0C BELOW 850 MB/1.3 KMAGL. THIS NEAR-COASTAL TRANSITIONAL MIX WILL BE DRIVEN BY PERSISTENTLOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION QUASI-FOCUSED ACROSS THE NYC METROVICINITY/FAR SOUTHERN NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...GUYER.. 02/13/2014ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...LAT...LON 39557777 40977588 42297520 42987285 43427152 4378708143647024 42747048 42117070 41637128 40187394 3961759538757693 39027793 39557777 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 What radars show where the r/s line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Heavy snow now in Brooklyn. About 4 inches on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yeah that R/S line is still chugging north. Looks to be entering Monmouth county now as per dual pol. Yeah that R/S line is still chugging north. Looks to be entering Monmouth county now as per dual pol. It is going to changeover before anyone in the NYC area gets to 12, I don't know where people are getting that front end could be 12, when totals are 6-12 for the entire duration by forecast consensus.Whatever it gets to before the switch, right now it is deadly driving and that is the story. It is very bad out in central NJ to say the least.And enough is on the road that a change to rain may improve visibility, but it will still be a tough slog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Jeez, Dual-pol showing the changeover maybe 20 miles away from me now. If that flies through here there will be a good amount of rain/sleet before the dryslot, much warmer than models even last night thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 rain sleet line chuggin north (about 25 miles shout of bk) lets hope it hits a wall Yep it's moved north....but it was modeled anyway...we should still be snow for 3 hours, and in that time is when all the fun happens 2-3" per hour. It'll easily drop 8-10", my only doubts were if we'd hit a foot in the area before a changeover....to make it clear for some. This is definitely a thump snow, and to me it's much more enjoyable than 15 hours of light snow. It's just pouring the white stuff right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Rain Snow Line Looks To Be Flying NorthWest. Not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 about 3 inches here now in oak ridge, nj. nw morris county. intensity picking up. my brother in Burlington township just texted me that he's gone over to sleet. he estimated about 8 inches before changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrOldSchool Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Getting crushed here in Westfield. The city plow has already been through my side street more times this morning than the last few storms combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Holy craaaaapppppp!!! Are you guys seeeeing these rates!!??!!? Flakes are ENORMOUS!!!! currently heavy snow and 33 degrees, central LI. Prob picked up 3 inches in the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 New Brunswick nj is absolutely getting pummeled right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n504jb Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Since last night at 10:30 p.m (I reside in Nassau County, north of Jones Beach by about 10 miles and about 2 miles north of the Southern State) Upton has changed its predicted snow amounts five times, I believe. I'm not a met, a forecaster, or know anything about models other than ANY model--every model, biological, mathematical, or physical has three problems: deletions, distortions, and generalizations. The first suggests that no model can accurately represent ALL the nuances of the real world or the thing it is modeling; the second suggests models lend themselves to having humans focus on some aspects of it to the exclusion of others, and generalization tells us models lead us to take the case for the rule. I guess what I'm suggesting is, the fact that no one really had--or still has--real confidence in how this will play out suggests this unusal constellelation of atmospheric events has exposed these problems with modeling. It's not the first time and it won't be the last but when this happens you can toss out the rule books and rule of thumbs because they may not apply to what is clearly an outlier as far as storms go in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Sleet mixing in ewing per alan casper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On my radar scope that line south of LI is now producing 50dbz (bright red echos ) i can only assume when that gets up here it'll be even more impressive than this band coming through currently. 12" for the coast shouldn be a problem given how the dynamics and R/S not budging contrary to some saying its "chugging" north Im far from a debbie downer but the reality is dual pol does not lie. Its movin north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuildingScienceWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Max is 54 dbz in the band approaching LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 6.0 in Lincroft, heavy snow with large flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Steve D "This rain idea is simple model hugging" Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It is going to changeover before anyone in the NYC area gets to 12, I don't know where people are getting that front end could be 12, when totals are 6-12 for the entire duration by forecast consensus.Whatever it gets to before the switch, right now it is deadly driving and that is the story. It is very bad out in central NJ to say the least.And enough is on the road that a change to rain may improve visibility, but it will still be a tough slog. Go against the Euro, yeah that's wise particularly when the short term models agree with it. It has 15+ NYC west all as snow. Maybe you are talking about Long Island or central to southern Jersey but that is not everyone here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 When I read no way the coast gets 12 I died laughing - check out the moisture train coming up from the Atlantic towards NYC , that's 3 hours of this . Plus 5 in so many spots . Don't think 12 is a problem Well PB I take you pretty seriously, but if the entire event is supposed to do 6-12 for the city and immediate environs, then we would have to be looking at huge amts if the back end snows come to fruition. I don't see anyone in the media saying that except for the northwest areas. Are they all just out to lunch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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