jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 My thoughts from yesterday still seem good to me, from 8" on the SE end of NYC and across much of LI, to 12" on the NW end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Crunching the latest data 18-24" looks like a good estimate NW of the city with pockets close to 30" if the pieces align just right. 12-18" for the city and 10-18" for LI looks about right. These numbers are close to the Euro with the latest RAP/HRRR estimated snowfall per hour rates. Historic storm for most of the area. Maybe not in NYC proper, but this is a beast from GA to ME. Going to make a high end NESIS rating. Jesus, that's pretty bold. I'm a Central PA guy who lurks, but doesn't usually post, in the other sub-forums for into and obs. This post has really piqued my interest, though. If you see those kinds of numbers in your NW burbs, what do you think back west into PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I wouldn`t worry about you`re surface temps its snowing in Toms River . Once those heavier rates fly over you . you will snow until 10 or 11 at knyc . and in that time you will pick up a lot of snow . When we flip it may be the best lift is gone and there`s a little light rain and then drizzle . But NYC has plenty of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Quick note all levels except 300 and 500 mb are closed off per spc mesoscale analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Man here we go, picked up rapidly and increasing by the minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Jesus, that's pretty bold. I'm a Central PA guy who lurks, but doesn't usually post, in the other sub-forums for into and obs. This post has really piqued my interest, though. If you see those kinds of numbers in your NW burbs, what do you think back west into PA?QPF once you cross into N PA drops off. SE PA however should do great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm in northern Middlesex co, local mets have us at rain around 10 am. The local mets I saw had a changeover occurring at around 12-1 pm which I think is more reasonable. The rain/snow line has collapsed southeastward and is still nowhere near us at this point...no way it gets here in just a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 yes here in matawan and it's coming down really heavy. Shame it goes to heavy rain. Was hoping for a miracle when I woke.Are we still supposed to get backend? Looking at radar now looks like after rain it shuts down. Radar wont show the picture for later on - we're still a good 15-18 hours from that. We will get snizzle/dry slotted later after turning to some rain most likely, but we're still prime for some back end snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The R/S line can be tracked via http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The RUC however is showing a more pronounced warm layer on soundings by 15z at 900mb, so there could be a lot of rain/sleet by then on LI and NYC if that's true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 According to PHL, 27kt gusts being reported in that band right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The RUC however is showing a more pronounced warm layer on soundings by 15z at 900mb, so there could be a lot of rain/sleet by then on LI and NYC if that's true. if it's raining in NYC at 15z (10am), in 3 and 1/2 hours, then this front-end thump will be nowhere near what folks are hoping for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm in Hamilton, nj and currently under that band. It's impressive. Very heavy snow and the wind has picked up. Hopefully we can squeeze some out before the changeover. Prolly have 4.5 rt now but that's very unofficial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 2.5 Inches OTG Kew Gardens, Queens , Moderate Snow has started & temp is 32.4 , lets see where we go from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 if it's raining in NYC at 15z (10am), in 3 and 1/2 hours, then this front-end thump will be nowhere near what folks are hoping for May be closer to 11 in that 4 hour span , there `s 6 to 9 in there and with 2 plus already on the ground , think 10 is a layup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 May be closer to 11 in that 4 hour span , there `s 6 to 9 in there and with 2 plus already on the ground , think 10 is a layup We're about ready to get rocked for the next few hours in a bit from you across LI. Hoping for some thundersnow as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 if it's raining in NYC at 15z (10am), in 3 and 1/2 hours, then this front-end thump will be nowhere near what folks are hoping for http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=DIX&loop=yes 2- 3 inches per hour in that . Do that for the 3 hours and you will be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NYC is about to get smashed with a 35+ DBZ band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=DIX&loop=yes 2- 3 inches per hour in that . Do that for the 3 hours and you will be happy It could approach 4"+ an hour in the heaviest banding. These are like insane lake effect bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We're about ready to get rocked for the next few hours in a bit from you across LI. Hoping for some thundersnow as well HRRR had this 7am - 10am period last nite . Totals will rack up quick . I hope you guys enjoy it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 R/S line on dual pol looks to be on the southern end of Ocean County, NJ and in no hurry to move north.It hasn't even really appeared on OKX radar yet. So we are in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Rates and winds starting to pick up in North Massapequa... this should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It could approach 4"+ an hour in the heaviest banding. These are like insane lake effect bands. We don't get to see Mega bands that often , we will be lucky it will be during the daylight hours so you can appreciate it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I can't understand the freak outs. Look at that radar. Are you kidding me? That's 6"+ easy for everyone in its path. Relax and watch this happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 3" down. Temp 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 3.5" and very heavy snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Up to 31 now and the extreme rates are knocking on Brooklyn's door! Current measurement is 1.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 26.4 in Edison. Right around 3" I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Agree. The mid level frontogenesis is just starting . Once those heavy bands make it onshore temperatures will wet-bulb back to freezing, and accumulations will be more pronounced. How are the 850s doing throughout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Snow is really picking up now in Brooklyn, 30.9 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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