nyblizz44 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 That's encouraging that they are still snow all the way down there. he was in sleet/ice but switching bk to the 3hr rates. dont care if we mix during height just want the 3+ stuff for 3 hours thats all I ask! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Central LI, 33 degrees. Been snowing for about 5 hrs now, total snow around 1/2 inch. Hopefully snow will pick up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldalex Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Does look better for most of LI... wish they didn't make the 1st order station locations so prominent... can't see the finer deets in the NYC area. Good lord @ what it's spitting out for DC-PHL! HRRR Is looking good too, showing over 12" for the front end for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 he was in sleet/ice but switching bk to the 3hr rates. dont care if we mix during height just want the 3+ stuff for 3 hours thats all I ask! We are going to do that dance, too, later this morning... you can see the battle taking shape on the p-type maps... good news is that the lift is prolific with that moisture slug and we will likely have 8-12" by the time we do flip and/or dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DWSI91 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Moderate-heavy snow in western Monmouth. Teetering on those bands coming through. Starting to pick up. 28F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looking at radar I think the HRRR / RAP are pretty much right on. Mix line near toms river as obs showed them back and forth with heavy precip. Mix line extends SW to WSW from there. Probably just rain now far SNJ / SE NJ. North of I-195 and especially north of US 1 this front end will deliver the goods 8-12". Mix will approach the Southern & eastern areas but not before at least 6" down. Signal for back side CCB is strong for NNJ / NYC w/ 3-6" perhaps even 8". I am still not 100% on that part. Almost always surprises there. Most of NNJ / NYC area should end up 12-18" w/ 20" or so where max rates are realized on both front end and back side while avoiding mixing issues in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Saw it already mentioned but the Euro's backed crushes DC to almost Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yes! We're finally into the green zone, i.e., the 20-25 DBZ zone on the radar. Timed my wakeup pretty good as it was light snow most of the early morning, while I slept. Snowing moderately here since about 5:30 am, when I woke up, with almost 2" on the ground. Just walked aroud and it's still a relatively dry snow, but it does pack somewhat - temps are up to about 26F from a low of 22F several hours ago. Can't wait for the insane snow... Here in Metuchen/Edison, NJ area - hard to believe disabling profile info saves that much bandwidth - certainly makes it hard to follow the obs threads... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Central LI, 33 degrees. Been snowing for about 5 hrs now, total snow around 1/2 inch. Hopefully snow will pick up soon. Ditto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Ditto Garden city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYI91Tavares Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 ...whats your temp?...i'm already 32*..that could be rain by the time it gets here. Surface temps will be slightly above freezing but precip rates will keep that snow when it starts blitzing shortly, won't changeover till mid levels warm in the morning, this is all happening pretty much as forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'd bet on heaviest rates of the season, sir... Ill take your word for it sir & smile all the way to the bank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZNSTATED Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 ...whats your temp?...i'm already 32*..that could be rain by the time it gets here. 32 in Shirley n wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 Moderate to heavy snow falling in Woodbridge Twp. (Fords), estimated accumulation 2.0"-2.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Dropped back to 29 with moderate to heavy snow now. Rates really picked up in the last 45 minutes. Kids school just closed. Drove around for about an hour. Most roads are anywhere from a slushy mess to snow covered sled runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looking at radar I think the HRRR / RAP are pretty much right on. Mix line near toms river as obs showed them back and forth with heavy precip. Mix line extends SW to WSW from there. Probably just rain now far SNJ / SE NJ. North of I-195 and especially north of US 1 this front end will deliver the goods 8-12". Mix will approach the Southern & eastern areas but not before at least 6" down. Signal for back side CCB is strong for NNJ / NYC w/ 3-6" perhaps even 8". I am still not 100% on that part. Almost always surprises there. Most of NNJ / NYC area should end up 12-18" w/ 20" or so where max rates are realized on both front end and back side while avoiding mixing issues in between. Yeah, I'd go with 10-15" SE to NW across the city with 12-18" just N & W... feel there is room for a few more inches more than that with the CCB but those are fickle, as we know. That said, the signal for strong backside deformation is evident on just about all guidance, it's just about where the heaviest axis sets up and where/how it pivots. Positive surprises with the CCB also ... if it sets up just right, someone will tack on another 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Agreed based on radar returns, within the hour that wall of white we were seeing on the models is going to arrive. Likely to be the heaviest we've seen all season. Agreed based on radar returns, within the hour that wall of white we were seeing on the models is going to arrive. Likely to be the heaviest we've seen all season. Bill Karins on MSNBC just said this will be the worst driving of the winter for NYC metro commuters. He's going 8-12 for the city, 18 north and west. Steady snow in Woodbridge.Awaiting the big bands. Bill Evans has us changing to rain at 10 am. All but the famous NW of 287. Whatever that means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 2.5" imby, temp up to 31°..Mod-heavy snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yes! We're finally into the green zone, i.e., the 20-25 DBZ zone on the radar. Timed my wakeup pretty good as it was light snow most of the early morning, while I slept. Snowing moderately here since about 5:30 am, when I woke up, with almost 2" on the ground. Just walked aroud and it's still a relatively dry snow, but it does pack somewhat - temps are up to about 26F from a low of 22F several hours ago. Can't wait for the insane snow... Heh are you the only one awake at home? Just me and the dog and he just laid back down. Someone forgot to tell us we're grown men.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Crunching the latest data 18-24" looks like a good estimate NW of the city with pockets close to 30" if the pieces align just right. 12-18" for the city and 10-18" for LI looks about right. These numbers are close to the Euro with the latest RAP/HRRR estimated snowfall per hour rates. Historic storm for most of the area. Maybe not in NYC proper, but this is a beast from GA to ME. Going to make a high end NESIS rating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJCoast Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Went to sleet/rain, now back to snow in Brielle. Seem to be right on the battle line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Crunching the latest data 18-24" looks like a good estimate NW of the city with pockets close to 30" if the pieces align just right. 12-18" for the city and 10-18" for LI looks about right. These numbers are close to the Euro with the latest RAP/HRRR estimated snowfall per hour rates. Historic storm for most of the area. Maybe not in NYC proper, but this is a beast from GA to ME. Going to make a high end NESIS rating. Gotta say yanks, you're putting it out there. I guess places like High Point could see 24, but you really think 12-18 for the city? Seems that would shock a lot of folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Really shocked at how little snow has accumulated. 1/2" and 34 degrees. Central LI. This could be a huge bust for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Crunching the latest data 18-24" looks like a good estimate NW of the city with pockets close to 30" if the pieces align just right. 12-18" for the city and 10-18" for LI looks about right. These numbers are close to the Euro with the latest RAP/HRRR estimated snowfall per hour rates. Historic storm for most of the area. Maybe not in NYC proper, but this is a beast from GA to ME. Going to make a high end NESIS rating. Im n/w of the city right now in morris county and usually id agree with you with the bigger totals to the n/w (I especially thought so with this set up) -- but looking at the radar, it appears heaviest bands will train over city and LI, which would lead me to think immediate city does just as good as n/w just my obs, not sure if that will work out but I could see this being pretty equal throughout the region... believe me, id love you to be right, but just seeing the heaviest returns east of me rather than n/w like much of the guidance was placing the heavier axis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It's a good sign that the bands are having a little trouble moving north so far and that the whole evolution is slowing some. That will only prolong the duration and is a sign that the storm is really beginning to wrap up and organize. The heaviest front end now looks slated for late morning. This reminds me so much of 96'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Im n/w of the city right now in morris county and usually id agree with you with the bigger totals to the n/w (I especially thought so with this set up) -- but looking at the radar, it appears heaviest bands will train over city and LI, which would lead me to think immediate city does just as good as n/w just my obs, not sure if that will work out but I could see this being pretty equal throughout the region... believe me, id love you to be right, but just seeing the heaviest returns east of me rather than n/w like much of the guidance was placing the heavier axis Im n/w of the city right now in morris county and usually id agree with you with the bigger totals to the n/w (I especially thought so with this set up) -- but looking at the radar, it appears heaviest bands will train over city and LI, which would lead me to think immediate city does just as good as n/w just my obs, not sure if that will work out but I could see this being pretty equal throughout the region... believe me, id love you to be right, but just seeing the heaviest returns east of me rather than n/w like much of the guidance was placing the heavier axis I noticed too but assumed that was going to fill in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 29 in Dyker Heights close to 2 inches . Those rates in Toms River will work there way into the city and Nassau County then points N . In between 7am and 10am - you may pick up 6- 8 inches in that window alone . Not sure how long after 10 am the city holds on . 10 inches @ KNYC upfront was the call on the HRRR , and looks in line . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 28 degrees here, Winds up to 15/16 Mph and moderate snow (Fords) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It's a good sign that the bands are having a little trouble moving north so far and that the whole evolution is slowing some. That will only prolong the duration and is a sign that the storm is really beginning to wrap up and organize. The heaviest front end now looks slated for late morning. This reminds me so much of 96'. Do you buy rain by 10a as per Bill Evans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It's a good sign that the bands are having a little trouble moving north so far and that the whole evolution is slowing some. That will only prolong the duration and is a sign that the storm is really beginning to wrap up and organize. The heaviest front end now looks slated for late morning. This reminds me so much of 96'. but many of us are changing over by late morning; we'd hoped the heaviest thump would've gotten here sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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