Weathergun Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The RGEM and NAM 700VVs are indicating on very heavy band of snow with the coastal front pushing northward tomorrow morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The RGEM and NAM 700VVs are indicating on very heavy band of snow with the coastal front pushing northward tomorrow morning: Looks like some thundersnow for LI tommorow according to that right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 6z NAM front end alone is a foot area wide . If at 12z the NAM continues to show the colder solution , then you have to buy it .The other Non American models have moved towards the NAM they did not move to the Euro . The UKIE , GGEM and now the GFS develop the CCB as the NAM was the first to see it . It was also early in its track E of AC and not tucked in like the Euro . sidenote .. The Euro sees the CCB but its into SNE because its the furthest west . Will obvious wait until 12z , if you don't` get that mid level punch and keep that center off AC , then it maybe a case that the Euro is too wound up through OBX and that forces it run inside . Only speculating . hope I`m right at 12z . Good Luck . You can see the 4km which has the lower pressures of the Euro and GFS having the changeover and warming at the same time tomorrow. The regular NAM still isn't seeing the strength of the low. But it goes back to snow faster on CCB than other guidance at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 No matter what happens this storm clearly means business. You don't get such a vast and historic impact from a run of the mill winter storm and the thunderstorm complex coming into Florida is something straight outta March 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 They didn't go west per se, the models trended toward developing the CCB faster and maturing the mid level centers. Go to the post I made about 30 minutes ago which illustrates the GFS trending toward this. The 6z NAM, GFS, and RGEM are clearly west with the SLP center compared to 0z. The NAM is also slower with its progression. The two biggest changes are precip further NW and heavier CCB precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You can see the 4km which has the lower pressures of the Euro and GFS having the changeover and warming at the same time tomorrow. The regular NAM still isn't seeing the strength of the low. But it goes back to snow faster on CCB than other guidance at night. cld34.gif cld48.gif Right once the Center is just NE , I think it comes in right along 78 - and the rates increase , you go from light rain to HVY snow . is it 2 hours 4 hours or 6 hours , Those bands are 1 - 2 inches per hour . We saw that last Feb . I picked up 10 inches in CN in 5 hours . Just hope it sets up like it did then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 6z NAM, GFS, and RGEM are clearly west with the SLP center compared to 0z. The NAM is also slower with its progression. The two biggest changes are precip further NW and heavier CCB precip. Looks like the initial slug of moisture on the NAM is still 1 inch so I will take it . The RGEM is west but its 0z came so far east of its 18z , So I guess the victory is it didn't get back to 18z . The GFS now has the CCB . Interested to see if the NAM re fires the CCB and where the next wobble of the RGEM is . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Right once the Center is just NE , I think it comes in right along 78 - and the rates increase , you go from light rain to HVY snow . is it 2 hours 4 hours or 6 hours , Those bands are 1 - 2 inches per hour . We saw that last Feb . I picked up 10 inches in CN in 5 hours . Just hope it sets up like it did then Here lies the problem and ive seen this multiple times it hammers your area, NYC, HV and SWCT and when it moves across Ll it loses its punch substantially. For LI i think the best rates will be the front end thump according to that insane VV chart posted above for LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 6z NAM, GFS, and RGEM are clearly west with the SLP center compared to 0z. The NAM is also slower with its progression. The two biggest changes are precip further NW and heavier CCB precip. I agree with you, I just don't think that being slightly west with the center of pressure ultimately is altering the models snowfall output. In fact the guidance seems to be increasing the snowfall as it moves westward with increased dynamics. The CCB development on the models is really the most interesting thing to me -- when was the last time you've seen such a dramatic trend toward a CCB development with heavy banding? As a forecaster I just cringe at this as the Euro ensembles haven't budged in four cycles. They are dead locked with the idea that the surface low is going to touch the MD coast at some point and none of the snowy model solutions from the American guidance have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I agree with you, I just don't think that being slightly west with the center of pressure ultimately is altering the models snowfall output. In fact the guidance seems to be increasing the snowfall as it moves westward with increased dynamics. The CCB development on the models is really the most interesting thing to me -- when was the last time you've seen such a dramatic trend toward a CCB development with heavy banding? As a forecaster I just cringe at this as the Euro ensembles haven't budged in four cycles. They are dead locked with the idea that the surface low is going to touch the MD coast at some point and none of the snowy model solutions from the American guidance have that. Another reason why im not buying the aggressive CCB yet. Although the EURO is almost on its own with it being the most western track its also been the most consistent and has been at that spot for 4 cycles while the other models have been waffling at varying degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Right once the Center is just NE , I think it comes in right along 78 - and the rates increase , you go from light rain to HVY snow . is it 2 hours 4 hours or 6 hours , Those bands are 1 - 2 inches per hour . We saw that last Feb . I picked up 10 inches in CN in 5 hours . Just hope it sets up like it did then It will be interesting to see if the CCB really unloads like the 4km is showing, but may end up being nowcast material. The mid-level lapse rates are steep and the TT's are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hey guys the models which are only one tool in forecasting with other factors like looking at the big pic. a weather map, if the map could talk it would say wait a minute low level cold and heavy precip equals a my goodness moment.LOL well i have to go to the garage and sharpen the the ice picks and the coal shovel and make sure the snowblower is o.k see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here lies the problem and ive seen this multiple times it hammers your area, NYC, HV and SWCT and when it moves across Ll it loses its punch substantially. For LI i think the best rates will be the front end thump according to that insane VV chart posted above for LI On the south shore you may have seen that Red but on the N shore we tend to see much heavier/better rates with a passing CCB, especially if the sound is cold. I'm also higher than many parts of the island and I'm sure this helps, however slight it may be. I think we see a pretty good thump on the back side of this and expect to see upton raise their snow totals later today or this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here lies the problem and ive seen this multiple times it hammers your area, NYC, HV and SWCT and when it moves across Ll it loses its punch substantially. For LI i think the best rates will be the front end thump according to that insane VV chart posted above for LI After the heavy front end thump in the morning, it looks like temps may only rise to mid 30's Nassau to limit melting. It also looks like we will be dry slotted for a time to cut down on heavier rain potential. But the million dollar question is where the CCB sets up at night and how much in the areas that get into the best rates. This looks like it be could be a nowcasters special. But someone within 50 miles of NYC could get a very nice surprise as usually happens with these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I sais yesterday I would love the combination of 1993 and 2011 . You put down a foot of snow before you dry slot , Then the CCB kicks in . Unlike 1993 the center is not going over NYC even the Euro has it to the BM . So temps are gona be right there at the surface , so the second heavier rates appear the 850`s crash . Maybe asking for too much , but that`s my perfect scenario for Monmouth NYC and Long Island . You guys inland , don't need ANY help , you`re golden . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 After the heavy front end thump in the morning, it looks like temps may only rise to mid 30's Nassau to limit melting. It also looks like we will be dry slotted for a time to cut down on heavier rain potential. But the million dollar question is where the CCB sets up at night and how much in the areas that get into the best rates. This looks like it be could be a nowcasters special. But someone within 50 miles of NYC could get a very nice surprise as usually happens with these events. My forecast will be the front end thump being the main show than snizzle/rain etc and "some" snow towards the end another 1-3" im just to timid with this setup to do anything more than 6-9" total for my location at this time chris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Low level cold is very impressive...had a low of 14.9F here in southern Brooklyn. Heavy precipitation produced by WAA running into that cold dome of high pressure is going to produce some very heavy snowfall rates tonight into tomorrow morning before any potential changeover. We only made it to 26.9F yesterday, or about 10 degrees below average. Surfaces are cold, which may present minor icing concerns. The trend is your friend, both at the lower levels and on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I sais yesterday I would love the combination of 1993 and 2011 . You put down a foot of snow before you dry slot , Then the CCB kicks in . Unlike 1993 the center is not going over NYC even the Euro has it to the BM . So temps are gona be right there at the surface , so the second heavier rates appear the 850`s crash . Maybe asking for too much , but that`s my perfect scenario for Monmouth NYC and Long Island . You guys inland , don't need ANY help , you`re golden . We are going to do fine with the tick east on the 0z ECM and the trend towards a more aggressive CCB on the 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I sais yesterday I would love the combination of 1993 and 2011 . You put down a foot of snow before you dry slot , Then the CCB kicks in . Unlike 1993 the center is not going over NYC even the Euro has it to the BM . So temps are gona be right there at the surface , so the second heavier rates appear the 850`s crash . Maybe asking for too much , but that`s my perfect scenario for Monmouth NYC and Long Island . You guys inland , don't need ANY help , you`re golden . We had 10" in Central Park with the Blizzard of 93. I believe most of that was with the front end. The high was sliding east too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The key for the tick east is for more interaction with the kicker. The reason for the close to the coast solution is, because there is no confluence to the north. This allows heights/thicknesses to rise along the coast. This is also responsible for the eventual changeover to a mix along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We had 10" in Central Park with the Blizzard of 93. I believe most of that was with the front end. The high was sliding east too... We should do well then considering the track will be further to the SE than 1993 and with the added benefit of a potential CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This mommaluker is going to be a showstopper call me naive i'd rather have the cold air in place than wait for it been their done that.Anyone flying tomorrow g-d bless bring a sleeping bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My forecast will be the front end thump being the main show than snizzle/rain etc and "some" snow towards the end another 1-3" im just to timid with this setup to do anything more than 6-9" total for my location at this time chris The front end thump looks like the best probability for us as I usually keep my expectations low for wraparound low as the euro looks like it will be better over New Jersey right now. But I like to leave the window open for something better if the forecast should change next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The front end thump looks like the best probability for us as I usually keep my expectations low for wraparound low as the euro looks like it will be better over New Jersey right now. But I like to leave the window open for something better if the forecast should change next 24 hours. Heaviest snowfall in CCB's love to make their home in NJ and NYC while LI is in subsidence and get whats left of the banding as it moves east typically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.