Blizzardo Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Is that accumulated snowfall? If so how much for the tristate area translated? I think you drop the zero at the end and you got inches. Please confirm? Looks like 16-24 ish ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We keep on saying wrap around snows never come to fruition. When have you ever seen backlash snows like the GFS has been showing over and over again.. Potential is there to get buried from that alone.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Where can I go to see the previous snow equivalent for the 0z rgem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Earthlight - what are your current thoughts on how this is all coming together? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Seeing the 6z GFS is the second best map ive seen only to last years Blizzard 1.25"+ in 6hrs on the backend for Litchfield county?? Last year's storm showed a blip of 1.5" + in 6hrs right over my house (that was underdone) As I saw closer to 20" in 6 hours.. Someone is going to get smoked with 75 miles of NYC metro by the comma head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Look at the last 4 runs of the GFS and check out the trend to develop the CCB overhead and move the H5 low into a textbook position. The following links are the last four GFS runs beginning at 12z yesterday. Now this is a trend. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVNEAST_12z/f66.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVNEAST_18z/f60.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVNEAST_0z/f54.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVNEAST_6z/f48.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Let me crtitque my statement regarding backlash snows. One of two things usually happen. 1) they never develop to their full intensity and underperform as good bit 2) the band wacks NYC vicinity and by the time it moves east the 2-3"+ snowfall rates for 5-7 hours arent even close as it works over LI and we'll as a whole see maybe half of that. 2006 blizzard that band was ripping over NYC when it got to suffolk it was light to moderate snow. These are really difficult to produce over wide area IMO and even harder to have the intensity stay steadfast as it pivote E/NE. Point is where i am when someone says the real show is going to be backlash it gives me chills in a worrisome way from past experiences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Earthlight is so honking lol. Appreciate the attempt to shield us from your giddyness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Exciting, waiting for new runs, will be up until measureable snow starts accumulating later tonight, here is hoping for sw Nassau county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Let me crtitque my statement regarding backlash snows. One of two things usually happen. 1) they never develop to their full intensity and underperform as good bit 2) the band wacks NYC vicinity and by the time it moves east the 2-3"+ snowfall rates for 5-7 hours arent even close as it works over LI and we'll as a whole see maybe half of that. 2006 blizzard that band was ripping over NYC when it got to suffolk it was light to moderate snow. These are really difficult to produce over wide area IMO and even harder to have the intensity stay steadfast as it pivote E/NE. Point is where i am when someone says the real show is going to be backlash it gives me chills in a worrisome way from past experiences So your basically saying they dont work out for your back yard. Im not being mean but if I compile all your posts, 90% say the same ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Let me crtitque my statement regarding backlash snows. One of two things usually happen. 1) they never develop to their full intensity and underperform as good bit 2) the band wacks NYC vicinity and by the time it moves east the 2-3"+ snowfall rates for 5-7 hours arent even close as it works over LI and we'll as a whole see maybe half of that. 2006 blizzard that band was ripping over NYC when it got to suffolk it was light to moderate snow. These are really difficult to produce over wide area IMO and even harder to have the intensity stay steadfast as it pivote E/NE. Point is where i am when someone says the real show is going to be backlash it gives me chills in a worrisome way from past experiencesThat isn't always true at all. Jan 26, 2011 gave over a foot to everyone save maybe the twin forks, 2/8/13 obviously destroyed Suffolk County on backlash, and Christmas 2002 was good for at least half of the island. I don't think the potential for the CCB is something we can dismiss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 4k NAM drops close to 3" QPF on NYC and Monmouth area which explains the close to 30" totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Look at the last 4 runs of the GFS and check out the trend to develop the CCB overhead and move the H5 low into a textbook position. The following links are the last four GFS runs beginning at 12z yesterday. Now this is a trend. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVNEAST_12z/f66.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVNEAST_18z/f60.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVNEAST_0z/f54.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVNEAST_6z/f48.gif Just catching up here. GFS is finally on board, and IMO it's always note worthy when the just GFS is showing more precip over my area than the NAM. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=060ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_060_precip_p36.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p36&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Let me crtitque my statement regarding backlash snows. One of two things usually happen. 1) they never develop to their full intensity and underperform as good bit 2) the band wacks NYC vicinity and by the time it moves east the 2-3"+ snowfall rates for 5-7 hours arent even close as it works over LI and we'll as a whole see maybe half of that. 2006 blizzard that band was ripping over NYC when it got to suffolk it was light to moderate snow. These are really difficult to produce over wide area IMO and even harder to have the intensity stay steadfast as it pivote E/NE. Point is where i am when someone says the real show is going to be backlash it gives me chills in a worrisome way from past experiences Let me crtitque my statement regarding backlash snows. One of two things usually happen. 1) they never develop to their full intensity and underperform as good bit 2) the band wacks NYC vicinity and by the time it moves east the 2-3"+ snowfall rates for 5-7 hours arent even close as it works over LI and we'll as a whole see maybe half of that. 2006 blizzard that band was ripping over NYC when it got to suffolk it was light to moderate snow. These are really difficult to produce over wide area IMO and even harder to have the intensity stay steadfast as it pivote E/NE. Point is where i am when someone says the real show is going to be backlash it gives me chills in a worrisome way from past experiences Let me crtitque my statement regarding backlash snows. One of two things usually happen. 1) they never develop to their full intensity and underperform as good bit 2) the band wacks NYC vicinity and by the time it moves east the 2-3"+ snowfall rates for 5-7 hours arent even close as it works over LI and we'll as a whole see maybe half of that. 2006 blizzard that band was ripping over NYC when it got to suffolk it was light to moderate snow. These are really difficult to produce over wide area IMO and even harder to have the intensity stay steadfast as it pivote E/NE. Point is where i am when someone says the real show is going to be backlash it gives me chills in a worrisome way from past experiences I agree Red the only one I remember is jan 2011 where I had 19 inches about 10-15 of that from wraparound. Didn't get it in 2002 or 2006; I had 18 total in feb 2006 and nothing 2002. So I disregard it usually, that said this seems to be consistent with the models in this storm, tricky forecast and most schools will probably shut tomorrow to play it safe; spring break is shot so why worry now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 that is if nyc/western LI stayed all snow with 10:1 ratios, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That isn't always true at all. Jan 26, 2011 gave over a foot to everyone save maybe the twin forks, 2/8/13 obviously destroyed Suffolk County on backlash, and Christmas 2002 was good for at least half of the island. I don't think the potential for the CCB is something we can dismiss. No we cant dismiss it but my call would be the areas that are going to jackpot will eastern NJ ( earthlight land ), NYC, rockland/ orange and into SW CT. As it goes across LI im just not confident at all it will maintain its prolific rates should it materialize because as they start moving east the rates drop off substantially save for the few occasions you stated. Im basing my forecast accum. On the CCB not delivering as it is as much of a wild card as you can have in a coastal storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The NAM doesn't really have the epic CCB (yet)...It will likely trend towards the EURO/GFS with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That isn't always true at all. Jan 26, 2011 gave over a foot to everyone save maybe the twin forks, 2/8/13 obviously destroyed Suffolk County on backlash, and Christmas 2002 was good for at least half of the island. I don't think the potential for the CCB is something we can dismiss. Forgot about 2/8/13, which I tend to downplay since we were on the fringes of a much bigger storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If you weren't awake already.. snow60-2.gif Which model is this from? Looks like a future KU map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just catching up here. GFS is finally on board, and IMO it's always note worthy when the just GFS is showing more precip over my area than the NAM. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=060ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_060_precip_p36.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p36&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Help me out I'm confused; I thought all of these went west on the latest runs and isn't that a bad thing for us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Which model is this from? Looks like a future KU map. That's the 4km NAM. And Go Dawgs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I agree Red the only one I remember is jan 2011 where I had 19 inches about 10-15 of that from wraparound. Didn't get it in 2002 or 2006; I had 18 total in feb 2006 and nothing 2002. So I disregard it usually, that said this seems to be consistent with the models in this storm, tricky forecast and most schools will probably shut tomorrow to play it safe; spring break is shot so why worry now?Read my latest post going with 6" total thats with the front end thump and whatever snow it may be on the backside. Being as realistic as possible my friend last time i saw true intense rates was christmas 2002, 2013 the big rates were further east of me and 2011 wasnt all impressive to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Help me out I'm confused; I thought all of these went west on the latest runs and isn't that a bad thing for us.... They didn't go west per se, the models trended toward developing the CCB faster and maturing the mid level centers. Go to the post I made about 30 minutes ago which illustrates the GFS trending toward this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 4k NAM drops close to 3" QPF on NYC and Monmouth area which explains the close to 30" totals.lol what's the chances of that ? Is it in its reliable stage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Snowfall totals may have to be upped then if the CCB becomes realized, perhaps significantly so as most of that 6-10" that's forecast could come in the front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Going to take a break from the models today. Like i said im going with 6" firm total for my area and thats it, unless they're is overwhelming evidence that it shows the CCB whacking everyone including nassua/suffolk county im quelling my excitement for snowier solutions ATM folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Snowfall totals may have to be upped then if the CCB becomes realized, perhaps significantly so as most of that 6-10" that's forecast could come in the front end thump. I have heard WNYC change their amounts within the past hour...1-3 overnite and 3-5 Thursday, now going 1-3 and 5-10...that's quite a jump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I would say most of the GFS individual ensembles agree on that CCB developing. Some are absolutely epic if the mid-levels are cold enough. Check out P008 & P010 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRSNE_6z/f48.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hr 48 on the gefs have .50+ from the ccb…surface trying to cool…very nice sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 6z NAM front end alone is a foot area wide . If at 12z the NAM continues to show the colder solution , then you have to buy it .The other Non American models have moved towards the NAM they did not move to the Euro . The UKIE , GGEM and now the GFS develop the CCB as the NAM was the first to see it . It was also early in its track E of AC and not tucked in like the Euro . sidenote .. The Euro sees the CCB but its into SNE because its the furthest west . Will obvious wait until 12z , if you don't` get that mid level punch and keep that center off AC , then it maybe a case that the Euro is too wound up through OBX and that forces it run inside . Only speculating . hope I`m right at 12z . Good Luck . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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