WE GOT HIM Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 0z models were a little more favorable for snow in NYC than 18z, Lets see how the 6z runs go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 0z models were a little more favorable for snow in NYC than 18z, Lets see how the 6z runs go... Think positive over the BM thoughts. 40/70 is the most important BM a winter storm "makes". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE AND WINTER STORM ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS / 00Z ECMWF / 21Z SREF MEAN CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ON THE LARGE SCALE...BELOW AVERAGE FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE RELATIVELY SMALL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...BUT THESE DIFFERENCES TRANSLATE TO LARGE IMPACTS AT THE SURFACE WITH P-TYPE. ONE CONSISTENT TREND HAS BEEN SLOWER FROM LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE HAS BEEN MORE OF A WOBBLE OCCURRING BETWEEN EAST/WEST DISPLACEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH / CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW WITH EACH MODEL RUN. THE 00Z NAM IS STILL ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THU AND NEVER REALLY CLOSES OFF A CENTER AT 500 MB...WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM THE REMAINING MODELS. THE NAM THEREFORE HAS A DIFFERING 850 MB LOW ORIENTATION AND IS FASTER/WEAKER AT THE SURFACE. THE 00Z GFS POSITION LOOKS FINE...JUST A BIT EAST OF THE 12Z ECMWF BUT IS WEAKER AT 850-500 MB BY ABOUT 30 M. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE SCATTER LOW PLOTS...INITIALIZED 12Z/11...SHOW 3 CLUSTERS AT 00Z/14. THE ECMWF CLUSTER IS OVER THE DELMARVA WITH THE 12Z ECMWF ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE ECMWF MEMBERS...FOLLOWED BY THE GEFS MEMBERS ENE OF THE ECMWF...AND THE CMC NORTHEAST OF THE GEFS. GIVEN THE TWO SHORTWAVES RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST STORM ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE U.S. AND APPEAR TO BE WELL SAMPLED...THE REASONABLY CONSISTENT GFS/ECMWF/UKMET APPEAR TO BE WOBBLING ABOUT A POINT LIKELY TO VERIFY...ALONG WITH THE SREF MEAN...WILL PREFER A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS / 12Z ECMWF / 21Z SREF. THE LATEST 00Z UKMET/ECMWF/CMC ARE SIMILAR TO THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH ONLY SUBTLE WOBBLES IN STRENGTH/POSITION...WILL KEEP THE SAME PREFERENCE BUT REPLACING THE 12Z ECWMF WITH THE 00Z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I should point out the OBS for 06Z Vs. the 00Z NAM/GFS pressure for the Gulf low. It's already 3 mB lower on the OBS. We need to watch that carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 SREFs are a little dryer and slightly colder - Spread is less to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 still pretty warm http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=sref&area=namer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 East by about 30 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 still pretty warm http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=sref&area=namer Yea change over is about 3 hours slower though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 still warm but like the above poster said, colder than it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We better enjoy this storm because the 216 to 240 hour ecmwf and GFS is ugly and a potential for snow pack assault. We may struggle to get below freezing at some point in the 2/19 to 2/24 time frame. This would be an amazing light switch short term pattern change. The ECMWF shows 50 degrees at 850 mb at 240 hours. OH my. Snowpack could get assaulted in about a week to ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like about 1" is frozen this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We better enjoy this storm because the 216 to 240 hour ecmwf and GFS is ugly and a potential for snow pack assault. We may struggle to get below freezing at some point in the 2/19 to 2/24 time frame. This would be an amazing light switch short term pattern change. The ECMWF shows 50 degrees at 850 mb at 240 hours. OH my. Snowpack could get assaulted in about a week to ten days. lol who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We better enjoy this storm because the 216 to 240 hour ecmwf and GFS is ugly and a potential for snow pack assault. We may struggle to get below freezing at some point in the 2/19 to 2/24 time frame. This would be an amazing light switch short term pattern change. The ECMWF shows 50 degrees at 850 mb at 240 hours. OH my. Snowpack could get assaulted in about a week to ten days. That's a good thing, dude. Many of us are sick and tired of the cold air and constant winter storms. Don't get me wrong, I love a nice snowstorm... but enough is enough. Here's hoping we get a nice warm Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odwalla Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 06z NAM is going to be a crushing. Much improved vs 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 SREF plumes show 7.51 for EWR, 5.85 for JFK, 7.10 for LGA, 5.65 for KBLM down in Monmouth County. Those numbers are all up 1.5-2.0 inches from the 21z SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So far 6z looks west of 0z with the precip but just as cold...much better than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nam is digging more but more positive through 33 - Slp is a little west 850s will be warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Heavy precip is to TTN and Sandy Hook by 09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Changes over around 35-36 850 line extends back into pa this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Euro ensembles hug the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The NAM is a decent amount west of the 00z run. It also shows a pretty significant dry slot at 36h through southern and central NJ and approaching NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Euro ensembles hug the coast.. jezz they have budged in days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nam doesn't close off h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 There is a decent hit of back end snow, a little more so than 00z as temps come crashing down. Precip isn't out of the area till early morning Friday, also a little slower than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 1654024_736717099671970_1165016777_n.jpg I see patches of 14-18" of snow mixed in at NE NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 4k doesn't change nyc over till most of the heavy precip has fallen (about 1.25-1.5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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