EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 OMG!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 OMG!!!!! total sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Deform band is a buet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Deform band is a buet. Glad I stayed up west coast style I need to get home tomorrow. Philly at 5pm and then MDT 8:30 I should make it. Deform out of control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 lol i like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 4km NAM keeps a secondary low off OC,MD at 986mb at 13/21z and kicks back that CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 lol i like it. That's awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 4km NAM keeps a secondary low off OC,MD at 986mb at 13/21z and kicks back that CCB. It's a crush job. Jackpot... York of course. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's a crush job. Jackpot... York of course. lol That's still a very solid hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 With the full Euro via AccuWeather Pro I did some delving into some of the finer details I can look at. Had a look at the U-wind anomalies at 850mb and discovered that there is a tremendously anomalous easterly fetch off the Atlantic. The eastern two-thirds of PA are under at least -3 to -4 st deviations.. and probably even more than that in eastern PA where there is a region of >25 m/s (50knots) winds. The 0z GFS was similar to the Euro but not as strong or expansive (focusing more on the eastern third of PA)...but still strong. Either way, the highly anomalous fetch is a big time sign of a major snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 With the full Euro via AccuWeather Pro I did some delving into some of the finer details I can look at. Had a look at the U-wind anomalies at 850mb and discovered that there is a tremendously anomalous easterly fetch off the Atlantic. The eastern two-thirds of PA are under at least -3 to -4 st deviations.. and probably even more than that in eastern PA where there is a region of >25 m/s (50knots) winds. The 0z GFS was similar to the Euro but not as strong or expansive (focusing more on the eastern third of PA)...but still strong. Either way, the highly anomalous fetch is a big time sign of a major snowstorm. It's also a sign for bust potential with a retreating high pressure system. The March storm last year was a good example of this. Now, the LLJ from the east and snowpack may wash each other out, but I'm still concerned guidance isn't picking up the magnitude of the warmer gulf stream air that will be wrapped into this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Should note that the QPF on the Euro ensemble mean was even better than the operational was. Fantastic agreement on extent of precip shield, temps and track of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 PAZ035-036-056>059-063-122100-/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0004.140213T0600Z-140214T0300Z//O.EXA.KCTP.WS.W.0005.140213T0600Z-140214T0300Z/FULTON-FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...CARLISLE420 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM ESTTHURSDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNAVALLEY...AND WESTERN POCONOS.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW.* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGIONSHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES FROMTHE MID MORNING...THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOW WILLTAPER OFF TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY EVENING...WITH THECHANCE OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.* IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS AND SLOWED TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND TIMES OF POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY FALLING ANDBLOWING SNOW.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH IN THE MORNING ...BECOMING NORTH15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's also a sign for bust potential with a retreating high pressure system. The March storm last year was a good example of this. Now, the LLJ from the east and snowpack may wash each other out, but I'm still concerned guidance isn't picking up the magnitude of the warmer gulf stream air that will be wrapped into this thing. I think in this case we'll be okay, at least in our subforum. Without the exact specifics on that March storm, it appears we'll have more of a northeasterly vs easterly fetch with this one... and we also have the benefit of being almost a month earlier. East of I-95 could be another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 PAZ035-036-056>059-063-122100- /O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0004.140213T0600Z-140214T0300Z/ /O.EXA.KCTP.WS.W.0005.140213T0600Z-140214T0300Z/ FULTON-FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG... NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...CARLISLE 420 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...AND WESTERN POCONOS. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES FROM THE MID MORNING...THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY EVENING...WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. * IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS AND SLOWED TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND TIMES OF POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH IN THE MORNING ...BECOMING NORTH 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. Getting home for a reason! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Newly expanded Winter storm watch north of the warnings. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA420 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY....A STRONG STORM WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT ANDTHURSDAY...BRINGING HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTPENNSYLVANIA. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT STORM TRACK REMAINS SOMEWHATUNCERTAIN...AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF HARRISBURG APPEAR LIKELY TOSEE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION.PAZ026>028-033-042-049>053-122100-/O.EXA.KCTP.WS.A.0004.140213T0600Z-140214T0300Z/HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-SULLIVAN-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION...LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...SOMERSET...LAPORTE...LEWISBURG...SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG...BERWICK420 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGHTHURSDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGHTHURSDAY EVENING.* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...SOUTH CENTRALMOUNTAINS AND MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW.* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGIONBETWEEN 1 AND 3 AM THURSDAY...AND COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES FROMTHE MID MORNING...THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOW WILLTAPER OFF TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY EVENING...WITH THECHANCE OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.* IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS AND SLOWED TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND TIMES OF POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY FALLING SNOW.* WINDS...NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20MPH...BECOMING NORTH AT THE SAME SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.* VISIBILITIES...MAINLY AROUND 1 MILE...BUT ONE QUARTER MILE ORLESS AT TIMES IS POSSIBLE.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. FORTHE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...GO TO WEATHER.GOV/CTP OR STAYTUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think in this case we'll be okay, at least in our subforum. Without the exact specifics on that March storm, it appears we'll have more of a northeasterly vs easterly fetch with this one... and we also have the benefit of being almost a month earlier. East of I-95 could be another story. It is a different set up (Miller A vs a clipper/coastal transfer with last year's storm) so a prolonged fetch of easterly winds may not develop. But I am weary with no dominating high to our north to funnel arctic air in. The high is progged to retreat into Maine...which is not exactly what you want to see for a big snowstorm. However, many signs point to us "threading the needle" and still getting dumped on without it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 And by "us" I mean for the battleground areas, west of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Some absolutely frigid temps this morning, the two Mesowest stations near Smethport up in the north have -22F and -24ºF. A -16ºF reading in Mansfield, and a pair of -11ºF readings on the southwest end of State College near the Barrens. About -10ºF here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Man the GFS is just sad. Might be one of the worst model performances i've ever seen. I mean if it is right i'll jump off a cliff, but I highly doubt that. 6Z RGEM was decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD432 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014VALID 12Z WED FEB 12 2014 - 12Z SAT FEB 15 2014....THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLYAND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEASTCOAST... AS THE PHASED TROUGH ASSUMES A NEGATIVE TILT. THEGUIDANCE ALL HAVE THIS FORECAST SCENARIO OF A CLASSIC COASTALWINTER STORM BUT STILL DIFFER ON SOME OF THE IMPORTANT DETAILS...MAINLY THE CRITICAL THERMAL PROFILES AND IF THE TREMENDOUSATLANTIC INFLOW HAS AN IMPACT OR NOT ON THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. LIKETHE LAST FEW NIGHTS... WPC STAYED VERY CLOSE TO A BLEND/COMPROMISEOF THE GFS/ECMWF AND SREF MEAN ON SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES BUTCLOSER TO THE ECMWF/SREF MEAN FOR THERMAL PROFILES... AS THE GFSAPPEARS TO CONTAIN SOME FEEDBACK ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINETHAT IS NOT ONLY IMPACTING THERMALS BUT KEEPING QPF AMOUNTS LOWEROVER THE MID-ATL REGION. THUS WPC STILL EXPECTS A HEALTHY AXIS OFHEAVY DEFORMATION/DYNAMIC COOLING SNOWFALL JUST WEST OF I95 ORMORE SNOW FOR DC/BALT UP THROUGH ERN PA INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thanks for bringing ^^ up here for me. Anyway, even though 6z RGEM looks nice, take a look at it's SL placement and H5, most of that is RA or PL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 IF there is a period of changeover, with NE winds over solid snowpack, my fear could be sleet and freezing rain. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Horst mentioned mixing in lanco on Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That's still a very solid hit. JESUS! SE YORK COUNTY GOES GLACIAL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Any thoughts on thunder and lightning Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Considering the nature and severity of this storm, should I (or someone) make a separate obs thread for CPA, or will one general thread suffice for the duration of the storm? My thought: the regular thread is going to get choked with obs, model discussion, forecast updates, and radar presentations, and could be difficult to follow at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Considering the nature and severity of this storm, should I (or someone) make a separate obs thread for CPA, or will one general thread suffice for the duration of the storm? My thought: the regular thread is going to get choked with obs, model discussion, forecast updates, and radar presentations, and could be difficult to follow at times. Go ahead and make an obs thread and we will keep this one for model discussion, forecasts, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 With the full Euro via AccuWeather Pro I did some delving into some of the finer details I can look at. Had a look at the U-wind anomalies at 850mb and discovered that there is a tremendously anomalous easterly fetch off the Atlantic. The eastern two-thirds of PA are under at least -3 to -4 st deviations.. and probably even more than that in eastern PA where there is a region of >25 m/s (50knots) winds. The 0z GFS was similar to the Euro but not as strong or expansive (focusing more on the eastern third of PA)...but still strong. Either way, the highly anomalous fetch is a big time sign of a major snowstorm. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/WAF964.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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