psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Something to note. Ec run is huge but what really makes it for our area vs the other globals is the ec fires up the deform band right over the 81 corridor then slides it east. It had a two parts kinda feel as the initial wave of waa precip weakens as it gets into pa but then we get a good .5-.75 thump from the back end. That is missing from the other models. If that is an error then it actually is not that out of line with the uk or cmc. They fire up the deform much further northeast too late for us. That's the key for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Mag you being a met, what do u think of the euro go with it since it has not moved run to run, also what about it qpf. I agree with a lot of people how do u have a low that strong with no precipitation. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Whats it looking like in the LV area, IE.allentown/whitehall. I know it was the bullseye on the euro the other night, wondering if it changed.1.4-1.6 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Full on model war. Its definitely not going to make CTP's forecast decisions easy at all, thats for sure. GFS is supported by the GEFS having essentially a minor event for even the Sus Valley. The NAM has decent QPF but its confined to the LSV and southeast PA. And then we have the Euro with a full blown shield of precip covering 2/3s of PA.. which I expect will continue to be supported by it's ensembles as it has for a while now. The UKMET had a good shield over PA as well but it didn't seem impressive to me QPF wise. RGEM is running closer (just offshore) than the GGEM did tonight. I'll be interested to see the 03z SREFs and it they continue to at least look like the 21z run, which did ramp up with many more members showing precip back into the central compared to the 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Zak, when's the last time you saw a model war of this caliber 24 hours out? What time is next battle (SREF, RGEM, NAM)? I'd say never. I can't remember one like this. 6Z models start with srefs at 215am then nam at 245am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Something to note. Ec run is huge but what really makes it for our area vs the other globals is the ec fires up the deform band right over the 81 corridor then slides it east. It had a two parts kinda feel as the initial wave of waa precip weakens as it gets into pa but then we get a good .5-.75 thump from the back end. That is missing from the other models. If that is an error then it actually is not that out of line with the uk or cmc. They fire up the deform much further northeast too late for us. That's the key for us. Could that be due to the Euro closing off the 500mb sooner then others due to how it handles the kicker differently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteo Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Its a whopping 0.5 degrees here in Altoona at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Mag you being a met, what do u think of the euro go with it since it has not moved run to run, also what about it qpf. I agree with a lot of people how do u have a low that strong with no precipitation. Thanks There's been discussion in other threads about potential convective feedback issues with the models (specifically NAM/GFS) or possibly actual convective development that would inhibit the conveyor belt processes that set up the CCB. There's also the possible upstream influence of the Great Lakes low. I feel that the GL low has less of an influence than what may happen with the models convection wise out in the Atlantic , whether it ends up being real or imagined (model convective feedback). I will say that I personally think that the Euro just straight up has the most realistic looking precip shield given the features in play, with the ultimate track of the low up the coast dictating the positioning of it. You look at the GFS's positioning of the negatively tilted and closed off 500mb as well as the strength and positioning of its 850 low and you would think there'd be a significant swath of deform precip. I just can't wait to have this thing in striking distance and in RAP/HRRR range haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Its a whopping 0.5 degrees here in Altoona at this hour. -7 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That's sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Serf took a tick east but still west of gfs/nam. Seems they are a compromise between the euro and anerican guidance. My guess is a mix of euro like runs and nam like ones. Not necessarily helpful to trying to pick sides. Also not helping is the fact that a compromise is unlikely. Either the low will ride the coastal front all the way up like the euro or it will follow the height falls caused by the convection to its east. Probably no in between. Ctp has a rough choice to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Its a whopping 0.5 degrees here in Altoona at this hour. Just went on a Sheetz run. -7ºF here and at the Bellwood Sheetz. Dipped down as low as -8ºF near my house. Gonna end up being the coldest night of the year I'm thinkin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just went on a Sheetz run. -7ºF here and at the Bellwood Sheetz. Dipped down as low as -8ºF near my house. Gonna end up being the coldest night of the year I'm thinkin. dry air could take a long time to moisten the column. I am not liking that when it comes to the models and them not taking into the account virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 6z Nam looking better. Tracks the low inside Hatteras. Also shield looking more expansive so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM is big. GFS only dry model now for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nam just flinched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nam now close to ec track but not deepening as much. Prob would have an ec like precip solution if it did. Nam is 998 at the same time the ec is 988 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nam is almost carbon copy of euro. Huge for us I-81 east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 From MNTransplant on MA forum. Shellacking along I81. Back to sleep now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ok where are the warnings??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nam is almost carbon copy of euro. Huge for us I-81 east.Much closer but still not as deep. Would be an exact clone if nam was 8mb deeper. It moved half way at least though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ImageFourPanel.php?model=nam&area=namer&cycle=06&fhr=030¶m=500_vort_ht|1000_500_thick|700_rh_ht|850_temp_ht&size=medium dry air? I am really concerned about this for PA. Rel Humidity and Precip fields don't add up on the NAM. Hopefully the column moisten ups or we see a whole lot of vigra before we get any to fall to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 warnings will be out soon enough. by 11:00 or so at the latest. got myself a yard stick and will have it on the deck later. also will have a streaming camera set up for tomorrow night My wife thinks I am nuts. I do like the time lapse photos of snow storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 81 bombed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ImageFourPanel.php?model=nam&area=namer&cycle=06&fhr=030¶m=500_vort_ht|1000_500_thick|700_rh_ht|850_temp_ht&size=medium dry air? I am really concerned about this for PA. Rel Humidity and Precip fields don't add up on the NAM. Hopefully the column moisten ups or we see a whole lot of vigra before we get any to fall to the ground. This is an stj system loaded with moisture and the flow is backing plenty ahead of it. The atmosphere in 24 hours will be nothing like it is now. I wouldn't worry too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'll take that back NAM is a great run WOW. We are in a deform band. Holy NAM no matter the dry air to start this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This is an stj system loaded with moisture and the flow is backing plenty ahead of it. The atmosphere in 24 hours will be nothing like it is now. I wouldn't worry too much. Thanks. Should have let the whole model run before commenting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 MD line area. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 warnings have gone up for Mount Holly counties in PA and new Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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