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Central PA and the fringes - Feb. 2014 Part IV


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Oh sure. This is a classic Central PA coinflip. I've seen these produce, I've seen them fail. This reminds me a great deal of 2/9-10/10 with all this deform band talk. I got under one and picked up 8", while UNV got like 3. Might be dumb luck.

 

Hey MAG, you remember that?

 

Actually to another point, that one was more of a miller B storm. This is the first true miller A we've seen in awhile that's just gonna roll up the coast unabated. Models sometimes aren't juiced enough with these moisture laden gulf systems (See: GFS)  I think we could stand a better chance of overachieving here with the main event and the deform being bonus.. especially with the track as it is. A more Euro like track should favor us almost as well as the Sus Valley from a climo standpoint. 

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What is your opinion of power outage potential tomorrow? 12 inches of heavy wet snow plus 30 mph gusts are sure to lead to some outages.

 

I'm not denying that the snow will eventually become wet, and certainly more likely sooner the farther east you go.  But with our temperatures starting out close to 20 degrees and likely to drop a few with evaporational cooling, I can't see how the first half of the storm is wet.

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Just took a first look at radar.  The leading edge is now over me over to Harrisburg.  There are 20-25 dbz's on the leading edge.  Should begin here within the next 10 minutes.  Temp holding steady at 20.1 degrees.  Dew Point 11 so I would expect at least a one degree fall in the temp.

I could still see roundtop ski slopes from my house about 10 minutes ago... now cant... visibility beginning to decrease

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Looks like a heavier band is trying to develop almost immediately behind the leading edge of the precipitation. Someone might start out with a wall of snow if that gets stronger...

it is over me right now... its not reaching the ground but its the early burst we need to moisten the column

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