Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,601
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Central PA and the fringes - Feb. 2014 Part IV


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 568
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I'm at a total loss and I don't bash them. How can you have that up with a warning text that's totally different. Makes no sense.

they edited the warning text to read 6-12 for Harrisburg, Lancaster, York, and up to Bloomsburg... that is now 3 different text forecast totals in the past 5 hours for this region

Link to comment
Share on other sites

they edited the warning text to read 6-12 for Harrisburg, Lancaster, York, and up to Bloomsburg... that is now 3 different text forecast totals in the past 5 hours for this region

 

I believe that is due to the fact that the warning area is much larger. They haven't broken out the warnings by region of PA (LSV vs True Central, etc) , just looks like everybody is grouped together so I think that is why you have the range of 6-12.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I believe that is due to the fact that the warning area is much larger. They haven't broken out the warnings by region of PA (LSV vs True Central, etc) , just looks like everybody is grouped together so I think that is why you have the range of 6-12.

I dont have a problem with a 6-12 forecast due to the nature of this system its just hard to effectively get word out when there are 3 different amounts in a 5-6 hour period before storm even starts... we went from 6-10 to 8 to 12 to now 6 to 12

Link to comment
Share on other sites

mcd0095.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0541 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW    VALID 122341Z - 130515Z   SUMMARY...A LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD   THIS EVENING WITH RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR. THE MOST PERSISTENT BAND   SHOULD EXIST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT   FROM NWRN NC TO CNTRL VA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z AND INTO THE WASHINGTON   DC METRO AREA BY 06Z.   DISCUSSION...23Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM A BROAD AREA OF   MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS FAR N AS THE I-64 CORRIDOR IN VA/WV. 12Z   CONVECTION-ALLOWING WRF GUIDANCE GENERALLY APPEARS TOO SLOW WITH NRN   EXTENT /OUTSIDE OF THE NSSL-WRF/ COMPARED TO RADAR/SURFACE   OBSERVATIONS. CONSENSUS OF CONVECTIVELY-PARAMETERIZED GUIDANCE   APPEAR CLOSER TO REALITY...WITH 15Z SREF MEAN AND 18Z NAM SUGGESTIVE   OF SNOWFALL RATES AVERAGING 1-2 IN/HR. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN   INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS/ISENTROPIC LIFT DOWNSTREAM OF A VIGOROUS AND   STILL AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE MOST   PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY EMANATE NEWD FROM THE NWRN   NC/SWRN VA AREA TOWARDS THE WASHINGTON DC METRO AREA BETWEEN 03-06Z.   ..GRAMS.. 02/12/2014
Link to comment
Share on other sites

You know, I felt optimistic for UNV area before, but now...I don't know. Something doesn't feel right...especially with how the short-term models are looking.

I wouldn't worry. In Sterling's afternoon discussion they noted the water vapor was looking more like the Euro. Plus they noted how the NAM and GFS were off also. I guess it depends on what your expectations are. What are you thinking?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...