psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I figure they might upgrade to a warning here after seeing all the 18Z runs. It was interesting chatting with HM and Adam Moyer on Twitter. they seem to think it could get interesting between 21Z-3Z Thu Fri for here. So, pointing that out if people panic up here because it doesn't look good late morning. There is likely to be a lull in intensity as the waa fades before the deform band crossed our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 to me it looks like kicker is stronger than what nam/gfs had it for this afternoon while in southwestern canada fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I figure they might upgrade to a warning here after seeing all the 18Z runs. It was interesting chatting with HM and Adam Moyer on Twitter. they seem to think it could get interesting between 21Z-3Z Thu Fri for here. So, pointing that out if people panic up here because it doesn't look good late morning. Really wish I could share the accupro map of the Euro's 850 wind anomalies, they're at least -4 standard deviations or better (anomalous easterly flow) for central and eastern PA at hour 30 and 36. Was something I mentioned early this morning after the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 For our driver friends fyi... http://www.paturnpike.com/press/2014/20140212153754.htm "MIDDLETOWN, PA. (FEB. 12, 2014) — In anticipation of the impending winter storm, the Pa. Turnpike Commission (PTC) will ban all empty and double tractor-trailers beginning at 11 p.m. tonight. The ban will be in effect on the turnpike from Breezewood (Exit #161) to the Delaware River Bridge (Exit #359) and the entire Northeastern Extension (I-476) from Mid County (Exit #20) to Clarks Summit (Exit #131)." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Jamie - are they hinting that we might see a decent slice of the deform band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Really wish I could share the accupro map of the Euro's 850 wind anomalies, they're at least -4 standard deviations or better (anomalous easterly flow) for central and eastern PA at hour 30 and 36. Was something I mentioned early this morning after the 0z run. I wonder if qpf will respond in tonight's 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Jamie - are they hinting that we might see a decent slice of the deform band? HM said this: "I wonder if the reformation of the deformation winds into C PA during aftrn/eve will focus some fluff/+sn" "I havent looked closely at C PA (sorry Jamie, lol) but I did notice it on charts 21z-3z Thu-Fri." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You'd think it was the second coming of March '93 with trying to navigate the forum and some weather sites. Just briefly had the SQL error for AmericanWx, and BOTH the HRRR and RAP are down (error message for maintenance downtime or capacity problems). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Any mets wanna sound off on the differences in deform placement between us high res models and the euro? Ec has been a rock insisting it sets up over central pa tomorrow afternoon. High res are starting to see it but are mostly showing it weak then blow up over nj and NYC. What's your take? Even though euro had been steady half it's qpf is relying on that deform. Is 81 area setting itself up to be let down expecting that or is the ec idea believable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Getting SQL'd to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 The HiRes models at this range had UNV getting 8-10" from the 2/3 event. Not taking them seriously at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS is just...well awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS is just...well awful. Who cares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS and RGEM not good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS and RGEM not good... Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RGEM looks fine for a nice regionwide 4+!! Most LSV is 6 to 10 per my estimation. GFS isn't great but take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just had this forwarded onto me: " Dauphin County is no longer in the 6”-10” range. We have just been upped to 10”-14” range. Please see the latest attached briefing. At this time Dauphin County EOC is not opening but EMA staff will be monitoring the overnight situation. Dan Scully" Actually, looking at the actual presentation even cumberland is in the 10-14 range now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS and RGEM not good... RGEM is fine. Look at radar and breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RGEM is fine. Look at radar and breath. Exactly, and I'm going to say it now...totals will be higher and further west than the models are showing. EVERY model has it in a position that would give most of the posters 4+ including State College and Williamsport. NEPA and LSV may get in on a ccb which could mean up to a foot. I'm going on the side of coastal huggers=good snow for interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The GFS has convective feedback so bad it makes sun spots look like zits on a 14-year-old boy. If it's right, well good for it. But I'd bet my 401k it's seriously flawed with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 I have a good feeling myself that this one will bust in our favor, a la 2/3... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Still on mobile but here is the NWS CTP presentation on my google drive: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2nnFxZg-NqxUnE5T1UyUE4wVTNucW5vaGZMbGpzQWZrQUl3/edit?usp=sharing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Snow is already reaching central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Advisory for 3 to 7 issued for remaining counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Any mets wanna sound off on the differences in deform placement between us high res models and the euro? Ec has been a rock insisting it sets up over central pa tomorrow afternoon. High res are starting to see it but are mostly showing it weak then blow up over nj and NYC. What's your take? Even though euro had been steady half it's qpf is relying on that deform. Is 81 area setting itself up to be let down expecting that or is the ec idea believable? That blow-up over Jersey is due to the deepening 500 mb low and associated cyclonic vorticity advection. The banding potential still looks pretty good to me with even the GFS having a good deformation zone later in the day on Thursday as the cold air advection increases upstream and north of the 700 mb low. However, the ultimate position of that band will be very important. I agree that most of the precipitation, especially northwest of MDT will come from that feature. Those to the southeast will have mesoscale forcing at a lower height, with much greater 850 mb frontogenesis, a consequence of the poleward and upward sloping secondary circulation in the jet entrance region. Both the GFS and Euro take a similar track with the 700 mb low; the Euro is just delayed a few hours. I don't see any reason why the GFS should not have this feature present, especially with zonal wind anomalies 4 standard deviations below the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thanks for the analysis heavy_wx. It's going to be quite the night and morning of radar watching (I'll be up early to watch the US men's hockey team anyway ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thundersnow is SW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This thing has Jan 2000 written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 CTP changed their map yet again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thundersnow is SW VA Nice! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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