Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

Central PA and the fringes - Feb. 2014 Part IV


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 568
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I'll take the JMA and run with it please!!!   :lmao:

 

Jamie I can't remember a storm where Global and American models were so different this close to an event.  Very surprised to see NWS jump UNV from 2-4" all the way to 6-8".  I imagine they are riding the SREFS hard and trusting the amazingly consistent Euro over other guidance.... oh and their top secret experimental models sounded pretty nice too!

 

I'm still only expecting 3" here.  Anything more would be an awesome surprise.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'll take the JMA and run with it please!!!   :lmao:

 

Jamie I can't remember a storm where Global and American models were so different this close to an event.  Very surprised to see NWS jump UNV from 2-4" all the way to 6-8".  I imagine they are riding the SREFS hard and trusting the amazingly consistent Euro over other guidance.... oh and their top secret experimental models sounded pretty nice too!

 

I'm still only expecting 3" here.  Anything more would be an awesome surprise.

Not sure what to think. Despite beliefs based on emotion, sometimes we get more than expected, sometimes we don't. That's my experience. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Any pro mets etc. have some thoughts for those of us up here in FIG/UNV/IPT land? I don't know what to think and it's funny, as soon as that WSW was issued man did people start asking me what was up. 

 

I'd say judging on CTP's new accumulation map, warnings will be issued for at least Blair and the southern sections of Centre, Clinton, and Lycoming... and possibly Cambria and Somerset, with advisories covering those two counties if not a warning as well as Clearfield, the rest of Centre/Clinton/Lycoming and those 3 border counties north of Clinton and Lycoming. That's my guesstimate. 

 

Gonna have to watch RAP and HRRR trends closely this afternoon and evening, as I feel we are going to be on the edge of having an event of the magnitude of say, last Sundays event... vs what would likely be the biggest storm of the season to date for us.  Going to depend on how far NW the heavy snow bands get. The heaviest precip could easily be more expansive to the west. For now, I think Altoona/State College/Williamsport are going to be right around that 6 inch line with Clearfield nearer to the 3" line...pretty much near CTP's line of thinking. I'll be putting a map out soon. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That is correct it was in the southern end of Lancaster County and 6-8 everywhere else. That is much more expansive than before. I just hope mixing is little or none down here in Lancaster.

We may see some but I am much less concerned about that now. Earlier today, I was thinking we could even switch to rain (or freezing rain). I think worst case we go to "UP" and dry slot for a brief time (2 hours or less) then back to heavy snow.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'll take the JMA and run with it please!!!   :lmao:

 

Jamie I can't remember a storm where Global and American models were so different this close to an event.  Very surprised to see NWS jump UNV from 2-4" all the way to 6-8".  I imagine they are riding the SREFS hard and trusting the amazingly consistent Euro over other guidance.... oh and their top secret experimental models sounded pretty nice too!

 

I'm still only expecting 3" here.  Anything more would be an awesome surprise.

I cant wait to see a post analysis of this storm... maybe this will help key in on where some models fail

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd say judging on CTP's new accumulation map, warnings will be issued for at least Blair and the southern sections of Centre, Clinton, and Lycoming... and possibly Cambria and Somerset, with advisories covering those two counties if not a warning as well as Clearfield, the rest of Centre/Clinton/Lycoming and those 3 border counties north of Clinton and Lycoming. That's my guesstimate. 

 

Gonna have to watch RAP and HRRR trends closely this afternoon and evening, as I feel we are going to be on the edge of having an event of the magnitude of say, last Sundays event... vs what would likely be the biggest storm of the season to date for us.  Going to depend on how far NW the heavy snow bands get. The heaviest precip could easily be more expansive to the west. For now, I think Altoona/State College/Williamsport are going to be right around that 6 inch line with Clearfield nearer to the 3" line...pretty much near CTP's line of thinking. I'll be putting a map out soon. 

I'm talking with a few mets on twitter and they are concerned about the marginal subsidence near the death band, but at the same time, wonder that reformation of the deformation bands into C PA during tomorrow afternoon/eve could cause some high ratio heavy snow. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Got GFS data in it. Ignore the srefs as they use GFS and NAM data. 

 

I'm sorry Jamie and PennMan, but I gotta do this:

 

The past few day when the SREF's were ticking westward, you were the first one to post them as if they were "gifts from the gods". Now that they ticked eastward, you say they're garbage and should be ignored???

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...