EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Map looks good. You held steady with the amounts with just a slight adjustment westward. What causes the 12+ to the south stop ? Is it a qpf thing ? Yes qpf lessens north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nobody's really mentioned it, but I've been wondering. Are the dynamics good enough back into Central PA for thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 well well well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=PAZ019&warncounty=PAC027&firewxzone=PAZ019&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch#.UvuqZPldW8E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yikes...gambling at CTP I see. What do you mean? Seems like a pretty good call at this point. Why are you hugging the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 10-14" removed from CTPs map Kinda surprised, but whatever. They've been busting low all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 CTP is always the last to the dance although still time to go up w accounts after 18z guidance rolls in. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You'd think they'd have left 10-14 in after 12z runs looked like most support that in the LSV. They can always go back up I guess...just like a yoyo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 10-14" removed from CTPs map Kinda surprised, but whatever. They've been busting low all winter. They move 6-8" to UNV but take out 10-14" that makes no sense lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I honestly like Lwx better. I always go by their forecast for HGR as mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Maybe using GFS Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm going to say 4-7" for UNV. Much better than we were at 48-60 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 They move 6-8" to UNV but take out 10-14" that makes no sense lolThey will tweek it again as they always do. Those maps constantly change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hi everyone, Wanted to let you know I'm one of the storm mods for here. We've done pretty well so far but from here out, please keep sniping at each other, "OMG that's awesome" stuff, and (sorry) NeffsvilleWx Jr. congrats to the banter thread. We want to keep this a storm talk thread. Thanks! Now back to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nobody's really mentioned it, but I've been wondering. Are the dynamics good enough back into Central PA for thundersnow. Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Anyone want to do EURO PBP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I tried to post this 3 times reminds me of the marcus days one more time cosgrove update About a half million in the Dixie states without power. The storm is a bit stronger than forecast, and numerical models suggest a move slightly to the left of earlier forecast. Transition to rain will likely get as far as 50 miles north and west of Interstate 95. Big cities (Washington DC up to Portland ME) will likely see 4 - 8" accumulation with period of rain/sleet in the middle. Worst of this snow event along and maybe 75-100 miles to the east of the spine of the Appalachian Mountains. Those communities could see 12" to 18" with spikes to 24" in selected locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nobody's really mentioned it, but I've been wondering. Are the dynamics good enough back into Central PA for thundersnow. Maybe. There will be some significant 700 mb frontogenesis, though more probably farther east towards Philly. The 12z NAM shows some negative EPV values due to the plume of moist oceanic air, though again, this is mostly in the western and northwestern Philly exurbs. It is interesting to see a small layer from 700-750 mb of 7 C/km lapse rates in the 12z NAM forecast sounding for UNV, around 9z Thursday. This is the same time we see the greatest frontogenesis values in that cold conveyer belt feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Rap and radar look good. Short term model time and now casting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We have a new "tool", and I like what it shows... Go to the SREFPARA. http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/gefs/Plumes.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Man the slowness of the forum is bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Holy crap lol Crush job via CCB @ 42 hours for most of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarks green snow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Our Spartanburg,SC location is closed. Going to be ugly down there! BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDCIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGESOUTH CAROLINA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCYRELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC1030 AM EST WED FEB 12 2014THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE SOUTHCAROLINA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA.A STATE OF EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECT. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICEHAS ISSUED SEVERE WINTER WEATHER ALERTS FOR MOST OF SOUTHCAROLINA...PREDICTING SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. POWEROUTAGES AND DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. MONITOR LOCALMEDIA FOR CHANGES IN CONDITIONS. SOUTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OFPUBLIC SAFETY AND THE DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION URGE MOTORISTSTO STAY OFF THE ROADWAYS. IN THE EVENT OF AN EMERGENCY DIAL 9 1 1.FOR THE STATUS OF GOVERNMENT OFFICES STATEWIDE VISIT SCEMD.ORG.$$--------------------------------------------------------------------------------Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC1217 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO SEVERELY IMPACT THE REGION TODAY THROUGHTHURSDAY....A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THESOUTHEAST COASTAL WATERS WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING STRONGUPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT TO CREATEWIDESPREAD HEAVY WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERNCAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREADTHE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME HEAVIERTHROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WIDESPREAD HEAVYSNOWFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH HEAVY SLEET AND FREEZING RAINDEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER PIEDMONT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL ENDFROM THE WEST THURSDAY MORNING AS A FINAL ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON EAST OFINTERSTATE 77.GAZ010-017-018-026-028-SCZ001>010-130200-/O.CON.KGSP.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140213T2300Z/RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...HARTWELL...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON1217 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM ESTTHURSDAY...* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW...MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES IN LOCATIONSSOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 85...AND FREEZING RAIN FROM SOUTHERNANDERSON COUNTY INTO FRANKLIN AND HART COUNTIES.* TIMING...SNOW WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGHOURS. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT TIMES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. THE SNOW WILL END FROM THEWEST THURSDAY MORNING.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...ALONG WITHAROUND A TRACE OF ICE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH ONE TENTHINCH OR GREATER FROM SOUTHERN ANDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CAROLINATHROUGH FRANKLIN AND HART COUNTIES IN GEORGIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 the NAM CIPS analogs argue that this may still trend west further. The list is pretty impressive. of the top 15 some notable central PA hits show up top analog is 3-3-1994 also showing up 1-13-96 3-14-93 (yea I know) 1-4-2003 3-14-1980 2-7-1983 1-23-1987 1-25-2000 1-4-1994 1-13-1996 a few like feb 12 2006 were misses to our southeast but by far most of the analogs in the list today got good snows at least west of MDT and many got it into UNV and a few points west. This argues to me that if there is a shift to be had at the last minute watch for the ccb to end up further northwest then guidance has it right now. The mean and median snowfall for all the analogs is below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Some areas in that ccb are going to get a real @ss kicking! What a nice run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This run of the Euro was awesome. FWIW, the ECMWF has it snowing until 12z Friday in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 EURO IS KING! 17 straight runs....consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I tried to post this 3 times reminds me of the marcus days one more time cosgrove update About a half million in the Dixie states without power. The storm is a bit stronger than forecast, and numerical models suggest a move slightly to the left of earlier forecast. Transition to rain will likely get as far as 50 miles north and west of Interstate 95. Big cities (Washington DC up to Portland ME) will likely see 4 - 8" accumulation with period of rain/sleet in the middle. Worst of this snow event along and maybe 75-100 miles to the east of the spine of the Appalachian Mountains. Those communities could see 12" to 18" with spikes to 24" in selected locations. Sorry for my ignorance, but who is Cosgrove? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Sorry for my ignorance, but who is Cosgrove? Larry Cosgrove been around a long time a respected met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 psuhoffman's list includes 1/4/94. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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