Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 closes off hr 33…its further se this run hr 42 850's still not north of ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Clearly interacting with the kicker at hour 39. This never is going to develop a solid CCB like the NAM did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 closes off hr 33…its further se this run hr 42 850's still not north of ttn Wow-significantly colder, at the same hour on 18z the 850s were maybe 50 miles NW of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Clearly interacting with the kicker at hour 39. This never is going to develop a solid CCB like the NAM did. That could be why the western flank looks like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 984 100 miles east of nj coast and no qpf lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wow-significantly colder, at the same hour on 18z the 850s were maybe 50 miles NW of that. Don't worry summer is on after that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 front end thump is weak with gfs yet again... gfs not in love with this storm for us several runs in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 unbelievable that there is still no model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 976 inside the benchmark and light rain..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 front end thump is weak with gfs yet again... gfs not in love with this storm for us several runs in a row The odd thing to me is that it is still doing this even with fresh data when it seems the NAM/RGEM have improved nicely... So either the GFS has been onto something all along, OR it is doing something too funky that even good recon data into it is just not going to make it see right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 unbelievable that there is still no model consensus. A repeated storyline of this winter. Another one being that last minute trends went our way, though this storm is quite different from the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS doesnt handle the dynamics of the low or it is just trash, mets chime in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 even the comma head is rain.. how often do we see that? edit as I am typing next 6 hours come out.. not in time for the NYC metro but SNE may get one hell of a comma head thats 18z and now 00z GFS shows one of the more amazing comma heads ive seen modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That's a significant east/southeast trend on the GFS and it nearly develops the CCB overhead too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 i'm becoming more confused by the minute here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS doesnt handle the dynamics of the low or it is just trash, mets chime in? For whatever reason it just seems to be really, really struggling with handling the moisture transport and dynamics of the storm over several runs now. Maybe it's feedback of some sort? I just can't buy that a low would bomb to 976 where it is and have a moderate impact. The GFS has a history of doing this and other models are much wetter, so I wouldn't worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 00z GFS trended 100 miles or more farther southeast with the closed H5 low at 51 hours which is now sitting in a textbook KU position south of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS doesnt handle the dynamics of the low or it is just trash, mets chime in? I think being that even the new data hasn't changed its mind, and its been consistently the least dynamic of all the models that it is just not up to par to handle such a dynamic system like this. The higher res models may be the way to go for now, and I hesitantly say that because I cant remember last time we had such a bomb like this that 24 hours out we were still all scratching our heads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 even the comma head is rain.. how often do we see that? edit as I am typing next 6 hours come out.. not in time for the NYC metro but SNE may get one hell of a comma head thats 18z and now 00z GFS shows one of the more amazing comma heads ive seen modeled That sounds a little bit like - wait for it - March 2001. Please, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 986 off NJ coast and moves NE, wheres the convective banding? Even the precip itself is lacking, what a mess. Looks good with MSLP position tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 unbelievable that there is still no model consensus. I would HATE to have to make a forecast for the I-95 corridor right now. If I had to it would probably be 4"-20" lol. The news outlets must be freaking out... This is gonna be a nowcasting event for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I highly doubt that a blossoming CCB would be rain like that on the GFS-every other model also sees the dynamic cooling that would take place and crashes temps back as it starts. The GFS just is mind boggling sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The system really bombs out in both central pressure and QPF as it approaches eastern New England. 12 hours earlier and a bit west and most here would be very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 00z GFS trended 100 miles or more farther southeast with the closed H5 low at 51 hours which is now sitting in a textbook KU position south of Long Island. and it's the driest 984mb low ive seen @ 40N... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Let the battle begin. In this corner... GFS and the EC In the other corner NAM, RGEM DING DING DING!! No its more like EC in one corner, NAM in another corner, RGEM inbetween corners, and GFS not even in a corner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 UKMET is text book huge hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 986 off NJ coast and moves NE, wheres the convective banding? Even the precip itself is lacking, what a mess. Looks good with MSLP position tho Exactly three days ago Jetspens and I had a lengthy discussion about this. This is not model fantasy or the model being wrong -- it's the model picking up on compressive mid level winds and flow from the kicker system back over the Great Lakes. Precipitation development is shunted and much weaker because of that. Whether or not the GFS is correct with this idea is an entirely different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So I guess I'll wait for the Euro at 12:45 and start this cycle again in the AM, looks positive, it will definitely snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Oh baby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I highly doubt that a blossoming CCB would be rain like that on the GFS-every other model also sees the dynamic cooling that would take place and crashes temps back as it starts. The GFS just is mind boggling sometimes. Nice thing is we seem to have some agreement occurring on the track of the system. From there we can use meteorology/not modelology to forecast the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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