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0z Models 2/12/2014 | Potential Major Coastal Storm


WE GOT HIM

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So now that the nam has ingested data do we still discount it or compact it the the rest of the 0z models

The difference isn't in the new data. The difference is the non American models already go neg as the center comes thrs

obx the nam is pos tilted. Nothing to do with the northern SW

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So now that the nam has ingested data do we still discount it or compact it the the rest of the 0z models

Who knows, we have to see what the other 0z models do. It's nice that the NAM is a good run for us, but there are so many other models that are not in agreement with it, and one piece of data isn't necessarily going to change that.

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At ISP, the 4 km NAM has front end snow ranging from from 12.0"/12.9" depending on which algorithm is utilized. The backend snow ranges from 2.6"-3.0".

Yea..better algorithms than weatherbell uses. I only posted that because it is ridiculous. They need to fix that in the worst way.

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Lest anyone forget, the 18z NAM gave the coastal plain a hell of a lot more snow than the 00z, so while it is SE compared to the globals (as they stood at 12z and 18z) it is significantly less snowy along the coast than it was 6 hours ago. Being in Manhattan, I would love for this to be a great GGEM, GFS, Euro 00z run coming up, but honestly, let's temper our hopes a bit to help cut down the emotional aspect of this thread a bit.

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Lest anyone forget, the 18z NAM gave the coastal plain a hell of a lot more snow than the 00z, so while it is SE compared to the globals (as they stood at 12z and 18z) it is significantly less snowy along the coast than it was 6 hours ago. Being in Manhattan, I would love for this to be a great GGEM, GFS, Euro 00z run coming up, but honestly, let's temper our hopes a bit to help cut down the emotional aspect of this thread a bit.

The 4K Nam brought the Goods relax til we see what the rest of the guidance shows at least Nam did not crumble to 18Z RGEM.

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Yanksfan check your pm's.

 

I wouldn't put to much stock into the NAM yet, however if the RGEM begins to hop on a similar solution then maybe we have something to work with.

The problem with the NAM for me is its the only pos tilted trough coming through OBX

I am stuck on the idea that this is a beast and I think it should b neg tilted at 500 at hatteras

That tucks it in and that's the difference for me. I hope I'm wrong.

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Lest anyone forget, the 18z NAM gave the coastal plain a hell of a lot more snow than the 00z, so while it is SE compared to the globals (as they stood at 12z and 18z) it is significantly less snowy along the coast than it was 6 hours ago. Being in Manhattan, I would love for this to be a great GGEM, GFS, Euro 00z run coming up, but honestly, let's temper our hopes a bit to help cut down the emotional aspect of this thread a bit.

It didn't warm up or change much for anyone, really. The kicker pressed down on the low and kept it more progressive, keeping the warm air away until the precip is largely gone. The NAM seems to have a dryslot working in by 18z Thu, which is when a lot of the models warm the NYC area above 0 at 850, so I still think it's possible even on the warmer models that places that mix largely go to a dryslot rather than have heavy rain.

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