Doorman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8∏=dlm2&zoom=&time= 6hr trend of the 500mb layer from CIMSS sure looks like plenty of cold to tap into from here hunting for small clues to inhibit a changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The thing with the NAM is no well developed CCB since 500 doesn't close off like other models..... oh darn well lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 QPF is 1" plus for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 since it doesn't close off it's very fast moving too, heaviest snow/precip is done by 18z Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Those saying 6-10 based on .75-1 inch qpf are not taking into account that ratios may not be so hot...4-8 might be better thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like there's a tradeoff involved here. The further west, closed off solutions will have more rain obviously, but then have a much better potential back-end CCB snow event. The further east progressive solutions will have an epic convective snow thump with thundersnow, but then the dry-slot may primarily be the end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Those saying 6-10 based on .75-1 inch qpf are not taking into account that ratios may not be so hot...4-8 might be better thinking Irrespective of the model, ratios wouldn't be that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 correct me if Im wrong but the NAM goes to rain and I believe that's the first time it does that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My opinion is that the NAM is incorrectly handling the interaction between the kicker and the southern stream wave. I'll need to see the rest of the 00z suite trend to this scenario before I consider this to be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What are u talking about... The 06z run was west... Then it jolted east on the 12z run by nearly 35 miles... Then back to the west on its 18z run and now back south east on its 00z... Please explain these consistent runs you see? It's been east of most guidance since 0z last night, that's all I was saying. A lot of people here know that the NAM isn't the most reliable model. No need for the attitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 correct me if Im wrong but the NAM goes to rain and I believe that's the first time it does that looked warm to me near I 95 and NY during a part of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 35 miles is not "inconsistent"...but can we please take the constant bickering somewhere else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Huh idk about that. It started off pretty west but it's been east for the past few cycles now. Thankfully the GGEM, UK, Euro say otherwise. The NAM should not be ones model of choice. It has very little support right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I must be loosing my mind cause people keep claiming the NAM has been very consistent... I'm 100% in disagreement with that.. Nam has been the worst in my opinion especially the last 24-36hrs with low placement changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Those saying 6-10 based on .75-1 inch qpf are not taking into account that ratios may not be so hot...4-8 might be better thinking The NAM is fine for 10:1 ratios.... 850's are fine. But I think even on other guidance ratios wouldn't be 5-8:1 during the snow. That just doesn't seem entirely plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My opinion is that the NAM is incorrectly handling the interaction between the kicker and the southern stream wave. I'll need to see the rest of the 00z suite trend to this scenario before I consider this to be possible. Understanble under the circumstances BUT my question is if the NAM , even when in time range, is THIS unreliable why does NWS bother running it ??! seems it has been degraded by most as a messy sloppy intellectually irrational setp child. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I knew if Nam showed a further East/Snowier Solution most would discount it but if it came West than there would be mass Weenie Suicides before even seeing the rest of the data. Basically the Nam was in a no win Situation...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 1.3 QPF for NYC - 12KM NAM. I am sure the 4KM will be wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 not to start a fire, but hr 42 does not look like snow for NYC or NE NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Any posts I see that consist of bickering or emotional posts I'm deleting. Please keep that out of this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You can see the double QPF max. Just like the GFS. You front end and then 850 s rip. except now on the NAM when you backlash you start at plus 8 As per nam KNYC is 6 inches max ,the NAM has caught the warm punch at the mid levels. Think this trended away from us gents This s gona be a great NESIS storm , not all have to be great forums. The changeover line is pretty far back . 80-90% of qpf remains snow on nam verbatim. By the time the 850 line reaches NYC, they have dry slotted.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Those saying 6-10 based on .75-1 inch qpf are not taking into account that ratios may not be so hot...4-8 might be better thinking Even if it was 6-10 for NYC Metro, this would not be too different than what the other models are showing even tho they are west and change some of us over. I would rather go for a huge front end thump kind of storm anyway (with a possible wrap around). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Once again the 4k NAM is painting a much different picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 not to start a fire, but hr 42 does not look like snow for NYC or NE NJ Im looking on instant weather maps and it looks okay to me, 850's look fine, in looking at critical thicknesses though it appears somewhere from 1000-850 there is a warm punch in there. This reflects well on the total snowfall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The QPF on the 4k NAM is in excess of 1.5" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 not to start a fire, but hr 42 does not look like snow for NYC or NE NJ damage is done by hr 42. this is 95% snow for nyc maybe some sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Once again the 4k NAM is painting a much different picture. WxBell still loading - what you got on SV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 not to start a fire, but hr 42 does not look like snow for NYC or NE NJ It's previous 6-hour precip, and current temperatures. Almost all of that precipitation fell before the 850mb line crosses the area; plus we begin to get dry-slotted before hour 42, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Those saying 6-10 based on .75-1 inch qpf are not taking into account that ratios may not be so hot...4-8 might be better thinking 6-10 is what the nws has for you…srefs are 6-8…obv 10 will be north of the city…i was pretty clear on that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The QPF on the 4k NAM is in excess of 1.5" for NYC. how are thermals? does it close at h5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.