Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What area? TTN-north….6-10 from south to north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Funny how we've been complaining that the pattern has been too progressive when progression is something we could desperately use right now. OT: What's up with Saturday, looks like the 18z gfs and GGEM were trying to get something going out of that kicker as it comes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delgto04 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just from reading on and on, it seems that the lack of blocking and the slowing of the kicker are taking it's toll on this one. We have all seen this time and again that these scenarios tend to trend west and expect to continue now that all the players have taken the field. Wishcasting at this point is futile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 for the wrap around fwiw srefs have around .20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYI91Tavares Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just from reading on and on, it seems that the lack of blocking and the slowing of the kicker are taking it's toll on this one. We have all seen this time and again that these scenarios tend to trend west and expect to continue now that all the players have taken the field. Wishcasting at this point is futile. I've also seen storms like this forecast time and time again,and then not changeover, or changeover shorter than anticipated and it ends up being a "surprise" and totals get upped at the last minute. Just have to ride it out and let the chips fall where they may.I feel okay with upton having all of LI at 6-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 00z NAM initialized with the kicker just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 for the wrap around fwiw srefs have around .20 how much falls as rain post hour 45 till the changeover/wraparound? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 for the wrap around fwiw srefs have around .20 the wraparound snows I highly doubt would be a big deal. ALOT has to go right to have a backend CCB. for the coast maybe a couple more inches tops after a rain/slop mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just from reading on and on, it seems that the lack of blocking and the slowing of the kicker are taking it's toll on this one. We have all seen this time and again that these scenarios tend to trend west and expect to continue now that all the players have taken the field. Wishcasting at this point is futile. The kicker is just now starting to show I think in the latest runs. I see little wishcasting at this point but open discussion and analysis. Right now it's any one model that could lead the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It is entirely possible to still get the 8-12 inches at the end of the day when all is said and done. Pretty damn good even if it warms at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hurricane hunters gathering data over Gulf of Mexico for tonight's 0Z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Its hard to tell how much falls as rain..just guessing around .40 perhaps more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Shouldnt the northern stream be sampled too. That is a major piece of the puzzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hurricane hunters gathering data over Gulf of Mexico for tonight's 0Z runs i posted this in the banter thread but i guess no qualified people have gone there recently.. but i'm just wondering what type of data are they gathering with these kinds of systems? is it the same as hurricanes where they "penetrate" something and measure, pressure, winds, rain rate, etc?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 srefs plumes 6-8 for metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 srefs plumes 6-8 for metro area What did the srefs show for the nw burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 They are releasing dropsondes that measure temperature, wind, humidity, and pressure from flight level to the sea surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 srefs plumes 6-8 for metro area Take that and be happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Guys i rather not do in my back yard stuff….the srefs are 6-10 from ttn north….obv the 10 will be to the nw of city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 00z NAM looks more amped up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What did the srefs show for the nw burbs Go here and look for yourself when the SREFs come out: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delgto04 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I don't disagree that the wraparound can enhance total accumulations a bit but we shouldn't bank on it to happen if there isn't anything to slow down the movement. Not trolling and I realize i'm a bit south of you but enjoy reading the analysis in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odwalla Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Note how the NAM develops a quasi 50-50 by hour 21. While not totally adequate, it could keep temps colder compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nam looks more energetic with the energy rounding the base of the trough so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 still a neutral tilt on the nam a hr 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Would be interesting to see where the kicker is now and how strong/weak it is vs. what models showed earlier today or yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 still a broad low at hr 27…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rok Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I really don't see this being amped (yet) still a neutral trough at 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 33 1000mb at mouth of CHPK bay but not really an impressive SFC low... 34 crawling ENE it looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 hr 31 light snow to ttn….still neutral hr 33 dca/balt getting crushed light snow to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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