Rjay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On the AccuWeather board, some guy posted the Weatherbell Euro map and it has a 10" line running from about Wilmington to Belmar and a 12" line running from about Philly to Trenton and then over to Perth Amboy and then JFK (just about I-95), with everything NW of that line over a foot (up to 15") until snowfall starts to drop off way NW of I-95 (like well NW of the Philly CWA). The map even shows 3-5" all the way down to AC to Cape May, which I'm skeptical of (maybe the front end?). I've heard some question the Weatherbell maps, but never heard the reasoning. Assuming it's trustworthy, that's quite a hit for most. It's not trustworthy in marginal situations. It counts sleet and freezing rain as snow. In this case since it's a snow to rain situation for areas SE of i95 it might be more credible. It uses 10:1 ratios. So if ratios in coastal areas are below that it won't match up well. If they are 10:1 then it might be close to accurate. That's the best explanation I can give you right now. I bet a met could do a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This storm can very EASILY drop 14 inches if things fall into place. He was talking about 14"+ of backend snow area wide not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 He was talking about 14"+ of backend snow area wide not happening. OK No problem thought he was talking total snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's not trustworthy in marginal situations. It counts sleet and freezing rain as snow. In this case since it's a snow to rain situation for areas SE of i95 it might be more credible. It uses 10:1 ratios. So if ratios in coastal areas are below that it won't match up well. If they are 10:1 then it might be close to accurate. That's the best explanation I can give you right now. I bet a met could do a lot better. ok, thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Cobb Method snowfall for NYC is NAM 14" and practically 0" on the GFS! The NAM has been 11" to 19" on its runs and the GFS only up to 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Check out the simulated reflectivity on the NMM/ARW from 00Z. Look at the convective complex headed for FL. It's the first time I've noticed it on any of the modeling. That definitely reminds me of 1993. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/COMPRAD4_0z/rloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.