PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 UKMET meteogram was pretty much all snow for KNYC. We'll flirt with the 0C line for a while yes. If H5 closes off the way the GGEM/UKMET/Euro portray, i'm confident we get backside CCB snows as well. Still 4 model cycles to go through before snow moves in. think Euro ticks SE tonight. GFS is a great model this winter, as is the Euro, i don't think any of them have the right solution right now, so take a compromise. Just looked at that on WB 850`s spike between 54 - 60 and collapse . The GFS I will not use of the southern branch . But just re read where someone said the UKMET looked colder on the Plymouth state site ? Maybe the mid level warmth spike on the Euro and seeing the 12z ensembles so tucked in , has me fried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSheridan12 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here is your latest and greatest from WPC How are they tucking a 1.57" bullseye over Virginia in the 1.25-1.50" contour...and closer to the 1-1.25" contour than the 1.5-1.75"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Someone deleted it for me, oh well. You'll got the idea. 2" + on the 4k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 4km NAM has huge backlash band over eastern half of northern NJ and NYC Thursday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 For 4K Nam images, go here: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallhires.html http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014021118/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the NAM output verifies and it's all snow for NYC, that's a new record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the NAM output verifies and it's all snow for NYC, that's a new record. The NAM would rate as entertainment value pretty much. I'm really hoping that tonight's 0z suite settle on an offshore track. Anytime a low goes to ACY, it's scary for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Snow via the 18z NAM, you can see the small NW shift and expansion as compared to the 12Z which is below. 30-40mm which the NAM shows is equivalent to around 1.2-1.6 inches: 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 1993 Superstorm and the 2/3/1995 event (low was right over NYC), still gave 6+" for NYC, 1/23/87 was a coastal hugger as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yea I highly doubt the NAM is correct at H5. Like I said my forecast would adjust for that, something just seems off about its depiction and I cant buy it. There is no way with all that energy rounding the base that the s/w remains that open and neutral slightly negative tilt. Here is the interesting thing, I still think the forecast could vary a lot becasue the kicker is still off shore. It wont come on shore for another 12 hours. It also come through the are where the Euro has had trouble this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 AF Recon plane will be sampling the energy in the Gulf this evening. 000NOUS42 KNHC 101620REPRPDWEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.1120 AM EST MON 10 FEBRUARY 2014SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z FEBRUARY 2014WSPOD NUMBER.....13-073I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS1. FLIGHT 0NE -- TEAL 71--A. A66/ DROP 9(28.2N 93.8W)/ 12/0000ZB. AFXXX 05WSA TRACK66C. 11/2000ZD. 10 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHEDE. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 12/0200Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Is Upton being conservative simply because its prudent at this timeframe? If not, then what models are showing only 4-8 for NYC Metro? I am not criticizing, just curious. Still about 36 hours out and conservative because of the challenge in forecasting how much snow falls before a mix with sleet and rain. They want to get it right and not have to back track. With a watch and a forecast of 4-8 they can go either way to downgrade or upgrade as we get closer and models further converge on a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Snow via the 18z NAM, you can see the small NW shift and expansion as compared to the 12Z which is below. 30-40mm which the NAM shows is equivalent to around 1.2-1.6 inches: 12z: The 4k NAM snowmap is 24"+ from SW CT down the NJ shore, including NYC and Western LI. Not that it matters whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 AF Recon plane will be sampling the energy in the Gulf this evening. do models use that recon sampling as data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...AND THIS CAN BE CONVERTED TO WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AS NECESSARY AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST INCREASES. HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DEPART WEDNESDAY EVENING AS LOW PRES OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TRACKS NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. OVERRUNNING PRECIP DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LOW JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND THEN SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION DURING THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS IN TERMS OF WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH MODELS STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE. 12Z ECMWF HAS A WARMER...WETTER SOLUTION. 12Z NAM IS COLDER...BUT HAS COME IN WITH MORE PRECIP...WHICH WOULD MEAN MORE SNOW. 12Z GFS SEEMS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE...AND IS FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 12Z CMC ALSO FAVORS THE 12Z ECMWF...BUT IS NOT AS FAR WEST. AS A RESULT...STILL DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL AS TO HOW THIS STORM WILL PLAY OUT...BUT SOME OF THE DETAILS ARE COMING INTO PLACE. SHOULD THE ECMWF VERIFY...WE MAY BE TALKING FLOODING CONCERNS WITH WARMER TEMPS AND LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS 3/4 TO 1 1/2 INCHES. IF THE NAM VERIFIES...WE COULD BE TALKING HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN INTO COASTAL ZONES...POSSIBLY GREATER THAN 8 INCHES. IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW...LOOKING AT A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THURSDAY MORNING WITH A GOOD 4-6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THROUGHOUT...AND LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS NW ZONES. SNOW MIXES WITH AND CHANGES TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST...BUT EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN...AND THEN PRECIP CHANGES BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRES DEPARTS AND UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL RANGE FROM 8-12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AND 6-8 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL CT...NYC...LONG ISLAND...AND SOUTHERN NJ. FOR COASTAL AREAS...SNOW WILL COME IN 2 BATCHES...A SLUG OF 4-6 INCHES THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN A SLUG OF 2-3 INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?format=CI&glossary=1&highlight=off&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&site=NWS&version=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 do models use that recon sampling as data? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 do models use that recon sampling as data? Yes. This is the entire point of the missions. Every model will ingest the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 18z 48 RGEM is 988 in the Bay http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3295_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yes. This is the entire point of the missions. Every model will ingest the data. Tonight's 0z or 06z tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 18z 48 RGEM is 988 in the Bay http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3295_100.gif RGEM is bad for us, and that's putting it lightly. Very inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 18z 48 RGEM is 988 in the Bay http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3295_100.gif Was about to post the same thing..inland over the Chesapeake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 According to Eric Blake of the NHC, only the 00z NAM will miss some of the data being sampled. 18z RGEM is way inland and looks like trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM is extremely inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 yup, 18z RGEM is a State College special lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM is extremely inland. When u read possible flooding by hpc that would do it for the city east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The RGEM isn't bad through 48 but then it actually tracks NW from 48-54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 When u read possible flooding by hpc that would do it for the city eastI wouldn't worry just yet. 18z uses the 12z data and with how far west it was at 12z I'm not shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 When u read possible flooding by hpc that would do it for the city east take it with a grain if salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Tripple-bunner (To cheer you guys up after the RGEM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.