Rjay Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Interestingly enough though the NAM 500 doesn't look that sharp. The nam is a much more progressive system then the Euro, colder but quicker, the 500mb actually is not a classic MECS/HECS presentation in my opinion. I'd go much more strongly with the Euro here for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I want to get excited for LI but the ECMWF pretty much took almost all the wind out of my sails for this storm. But the 18z NAM looks incredible for ALL AREAS with tons of snow down to the coastal areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Let me correct the statement, NAM is becoming more reliable each run as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Doesn't quite close off at H5 but real close. Major hit. Yanks hows the 4k looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If you gave me the NAM 39 hour 500 mb chart, I Never would have thought the 500 would have wound up like that further down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM is still 6-12" for the NYC metro QPF is well over an inch. Close to 1.5" in the city, all frozen. How about 12-18" with locally higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM is still 6-12" for the NYC metro Its about 12 - throws out 1.25 inches of LIQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 looks like the dreaded dry slot races through coastal nj. could be heartbreak along the jersey shore after the initial front end dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Let me correct the statement, NAM is becoming more reliable each run as we get closer Yea the nam will be best used for temp profiles imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If you gave me the NAM 39 hour chart, I Never would have thought the 500 would have wound up like that further down the line. It's been doing that every single run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 QPF is well over an inch. Close to 1.5" in the city, all frozen. How about 12-18" with locally higher amounts. Surface temps above 32 will cut down on accumulations drastically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well the NAM has essentially matched the other models (within 20-40 miles) for the track of the storm. The thermal profiles remain much colder of course. Do U think it is because it is a hi res model and it might be correct in that regard compared to the Non Hi Res Models ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 looks like the dreaded dry slot races through coastal nj. could be heartbreak along the jersey shore after the initial front end dump Its either dry slot or rain..pick your poison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Per the 4k NAM Snow moving in at 04z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is gonna be a real messy commute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 looks like the dreaded dry slot races through coastal nj. could be heartbreak along the jersey shore after the initial front end dump The dry slot comes along with warmer temps. For coastal people, a dry slot as the warmest 850's pass would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Surface temps above 32 will cut down on accumulations drastically. Temps would only get above 32 when the precip shuts off and the dynamics leave. If there's a dryslot it could happen, but if there's a well defined CCB band, I doubt anyone gets above 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Surface temps above 32 will cut down on accumulations drastically. The surface freezing line hangs around the city if not slightly southeast for the duration of the event. Please.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Its placement at OBX is only 36 hours out , so its getting close as far as seeing an open wave in the short run to OBX . The DATA today seems how have effected the Non American models at the mid levels . The American Models are hanging tough Surface temps above 32 will cut down on accumulations drastically. No Chris if that's right its Minus 2 at 850 - its 10 to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's been doing that every single run. No I understand that, Im just stating that looking at 39 hour 500mb, I'd have expected heights to pump much more ahead of the s/w. Im not saying this is worse/better than any other Nam run, just that I would have expected that s/w to remain much more vigorous/ and tilt much more than it is there. Something is just slightly off on the NAM 500 after 39 hours for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 No I understand that, Im just stating that looking at 39 hour 500mb, I'd have expected heights to pump much more ahead of the s/w. Im not saying this is worse/better than any other Nam run, just that I would have expected that s/w to remain much more vigorous/ and tilt much more than it is there. Something is just slightly off on the NAM 500 after 39 hours for me. It's my belief that if not for the kicker coming in this probably would have tracked inland for the duration. It gets shunted ENE in nearly the ideal spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 No I understand that, Im just stating that looking at 39 hour 500mb, I'd have expected heights to pump much more ahead of the s/w. Im not saying this is worse/better than any other Nam run, just that I would have expected that s/w to remain much more vigorous/ and tilt much more than it is there. Something is just slightly off on the NAM 500 after 39 hours for me. I think it might be becasue it starts interacting with the kicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 No I understand that, Im just stating that looking at 39 hour 500mb, I'd have expected heights to pump much more ahead of the s/w. Im not saying this is worse/better than any other Nam run, just that I would have expected that s/w to remain much more vigorous/ and tilt much more than it is there. Something is just slightly off on the NAM 500 after 39 hours for me. It's the NAM, which just about guarantees its value as entertainment only anytime past 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Per 4k NAM Mega banding region wide at 12z Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 actually 1.50" qpf over nyc, western long island per 18z nam, similar to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 No I understand that, Im just stating that looking at 39 hour 500mb, I'd have expected heights to pump much more ahead of the s/w. Im not saying this is worse/better than any other Nam run, just that I would have expected that s/w to remain much more vigorous/ and tilt much more than it is there. Something is just slightly off on the NAM 500 after 39 hours for me. Im just waiting for it to see the mid level warmth the non americans did , It hasn`t yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Per 4k NAM Mega banding region wide at 12z Thursday Nice how are temps looking compared to the 12k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's my belief that if not for the kicker coming in this probably would have tracked inland for the duration. It gets shunted ENE in nearly the ideal spot. If not for the kicker we would not even have this thread going right now for sure. And you are right the kicker is well timed in pushing this out just in time for us to remain mostly frozen. My issue is that with that ridge axis ahead of the s/w aimed right over NJ the s/w should have turned more negative than the NAM is showing. Not saying it should close off, but it is my belief the 500 is being portrayed just slightly too progressive after 39 hours on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triniiphone Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Upton upped totals to 6-8+ for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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