Sn0waddict Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Sref's roll out in 20 mins, followed by the NAM at 3:00pm. Try to keep the discussion pertinent only to the 18z models, not Upton/News channels etc. Good luck everybody. GFS: 10:30; 4:30 (AM/PM) GEFS (Eneembles): 12:00, 6:00 (AM/PM) NAM: 9:00, 3:00 (AM/PM SREF: 8:20, 2:20 (AM/PM) RGEM: 10:20, 4:00 (AM/PM) GGEM (CMC): 11:00 (AM/PM UKMET: 10:40 (AM/PM) ECMWF (Euro/ECM): 12:45 (AM/PM) ECM ensembles: 3:00 (AM/PM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 SREFs continue to move that inch QPF line further north and west. Also still leaning west quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This thread should include the 18z and 0z models. Not surprised to see the SREFS trend further N&W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 7:22 PM, Rjay said: The tuck west into the Delmarva or just off the Delmarva is likely real. The real question is the quickness of the kicker and when it forces the NE push. If the kicker is delayed, a track like the Euro/GGEM is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The RAP and looking at a WV loop def look to be onto a trend here. Look at the differences and the amount of phasing (with the RAP being the most phased) at 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Please put snow maps and predictions in the Vendor thread or storm discussion thread. The model threads should be for analysis only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSheridan12 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here comes the NAM. 12 Hours out and I can not wait. The first thing that i've noticed, just eyeballing it, is that there seems to be less precipitation and moisture feeding in from the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NAM is coming in significantly more amplfied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The northern stream energy is already stronger and the phase is happening faster than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 7:52 PM, CooL said: The NAM is coming in significantly more amplfied Yea deff, northern stream more energetic this run, but also slightly more of a positive tilt tilt through 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Trending to the RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 7:57 PM, Thundersnow12 said: Trending to the RAP The RAP shouldn't even be looked at at this stage. Well outside its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Still holding slightly more of a positive tilt through 26, It was already neutral @ 12z but its really digging - Negative @ 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looking at the initialization of the NAM vs the SPC Mesoanalysis it appears as though it initialized too weak with the southern stream system... Just as a point of reference, check out the 500 mb height field relative to the NAM initialization... look at the 5640 m line running into the Texas panhandle and match that with the 564 dm line on the 18z point on the NAM (Granted, it is 19z on the meso at this point, but even if you take it back 2 hours it was still underdone) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 SREFs - still lots of spread wrt the H5 track and intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 SLP @ 33 is in about the same place so far off NC vs 12z - More of a negative tilt @ 36 and slightly slower, precip extends further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Mods... feel free to delete this post but plz get some of in the inept analysis out of the threads ...i literally live in NJ and from all the bs in these threads still legit dont know what to expect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 8:06 PM, Thundersnow12 said: It doesn't matter....it can still catch onto trends and its a useful model. So you're saying now that the NAM showing phasing earlier and stronger nrn wave like the RAP is useless? lol okay I will repeat for JM...The rap is unless in this range. With that said, the nam is not good either though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 1005 low on the Outer Banks at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 8:10 PM, SLAMSTORM22 said: Mods... feel free to delete this post but plz get some of in the inept analysis out of the threads ...i literally live in NJ and from all the bs in these threads still legit dont know what to expect You don't know what to expect bc there is no consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 8:10 PM, SLAMSTORM22 said: Mods... feel free to delete this post but plz get some of in the inept analysis out of the threads ...i literally live in NJ and from all the bs in these threads still legit dont know what to expect I really don't see too much ineptitude going on here. There is some good back and forth analysis, it's going to happen. The models are still literally ALL over the place, so don't "expect" anything yet. Sit back and enjoy the ride PS does anyone have euro total snowfall map 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 1005 low on the Outer Banks at 36. On 2/11/2014 at 8:13 PM, Superstorm93 said: USA_VRTHGTGRD_500mb_036.gif Roughly neutral tilt, that's a good sign that at least it won't go due N from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 8:14 PM, JetsPens87 said: I really don't see too much ineptitude going on here. There is some good back and forth analysis, it's going to happen. The models are still literally ALL over the place, so don't "expect" anything yet. Sit back and enjoy the ride PS does anyone have euro total snowfall map 12z? I have the weatherbell snow map but I hate posting them in marginal situations bc they are highly inaccurate. Anyone with a better one, feel free to poat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Snow at our door at 39...SLP is a tick further west - Just of the Delmarva @ 42, deff a little more tucked in than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Beast at H5. Might be more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On 2/11/2014 at 8:11 PM, Rjay said: I will repeat for JM...The rap is unless in this range. With that said, the nam is not good either though. Repeat all you want and I'll disagree all I want. Loop WV and you can see this looks better than what the 12z NAM/GFS and more like the 18z RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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