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Amatuer Maps


ROOSTA

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My snow map.

 

Some insight into why:

 

I will admit...I do think that the lower end of my ranges are more likely to verify than the upper ranges...so why did I not introduce lower totals?  Well given the makeup of this storm slight shifts could vastly impact totals, both for upper ends and lower ends and I feel like introducing ranges up to higher amounts "protects" me if we see any slight shifts east or for the locations where the heaviest banding occurs.  

 

I am worried about dry slot issues as well...hence why I am leaning towards thinking the lower end ranges will verify.  

 

Anyways...where the heaviest banding does occur and under the CCB...I think some spots will definitely reach upwards of 1.5' of snow.  

 

snowmap_zpsba84bff4.jpg

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My snow map.

Some insight into why:

I will admit...I do think that the lower end of my ranges are more likely to verify than the upper ranges...so why did I not introduce lower totals? Well given the makeup of this storm slight shifts could vastly impact totals, both for upper ends and lower ends and I feel like introducing ranges up to higher amounts "protects" me if we see any slight shifts east or for the locations where the heaviest banding occurs.

I am worried about dry slot issues as well...hence why I am leaning towards thinking the lower end ranges will verify.

Anyways...where the heaviest banding does occur and under the CCB...I think some spots will definitely reach upwards of 1.5' of snow.

snowmap_zpsba84bff4.jpg

Nice map wiz, having a good range seems like the way to go in this storm, slight shifts will have a big sensible wx impact as you've already noted.

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Nice map wiz, having a good range seems like the way to go in this storm, slight shifts will have a big sensible wx impact as you've already noted.

 

I tried not to make unreasonable ranges...like go with something like 3-8'' or 6-12''...those big ranges don't really offer much insight for people.  

 

I know when people see something like an 8-12 or 16-20 they automatically assume they will be seeing totals closer to the higher end range but I think it is appropriate in this case to give a range, despite believing the lower side will verify, only b/c of the implications of a slight shift.  Also, I think at this point, if anything, a track slightly east is more likely than any track slightly west of the most west guidance.  

 

I will admit though...I am VERY worried about a dry slot and really banking on some HEFTY snowfall rates we will see with this.  When it comes down it's going to really rip.  

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Snow growth zone is in prime spot (up between -12C and -18C) and I'm pretty impressed with the omega located within this zone along with the high relative humidity values.  

 

Also since there will be a pretty tight baroclinic zone with this, along with a well defined 700mb circulation, the CCB with this system should be pretty freaking sweet.  I would think 3'' per hour rates are a pretty good bet within this band and there is even some instability present in the mid-levels.  

 

In the 6-10'' zone I really could see 6-8'' being widespread and the 10-16'' zone...perhaps 8-12'' widespread and the 16-20'' more like 12-18'' but I ticked up due to the potential for extremely heavy rates and for a prolonged period.  

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Map for tomorrow.

 

Pretty extensive lift associated with this system along with great influx of moisture.  All models also showing impressive QPF amounts in both the 6 and 12-HR intervals.  Also...a plume of elevated instability does move overhead so can't rule out some thundersnows.  Going to be tough to gauge exactly where the sharp cutoff in totals occurs though.

 

snowmap_zpseb5b8c15.jpg

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