Stormlover74 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Its not like any of us could have expected the gfs to really show the same solution 8 days out....another thing is unless this is the beginning of a trend not one other model is even close to supporting this solution...now if 0z shows something similar I might start to get worried...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The key here is we have 8 or 9 (I lose count) runs with a storm impacting the area. Even thise run delivers some snow to most before any changeover. I would honestly be more worried if it trended towards the GGEM and UKIE. Its odd to see this trend but the GFS had been the furthest northwest with this past storm for a while. I still think the ECM has the best handle and athe progression of solution more likely to ultimately occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Its not like any of us could have expected the gfs to really show the same solution 8 days out....another thing is unless this is the beginning of a trend not one other model is even close to supporting this solution...now if 0z shows something similar I might start to get worried...LOL I wouldn't personally get too high or too low if the GFS timing is correct until either the 00z run on the 21st or the 12z on the 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Very small chance of happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 gfs ens mean is well south of the operational fwiw. has a sub 1008 low looks to be on va/nc border in line with the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 it then turns it up the coast post 144 bringing good precip into the cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 gfs ens mean is well south of the operational fwiw. has a sub 1008 low looks to be on va/nc border in line with the other models the euro seems to be the best compromise between all the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Ensemble mean is MUCH further south and east and looks like previous runs and the ECMWF. So, it pretty much looks like you can throw the 18z run out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 For those interested, 18Z GFS flips ABE to rain for the heaviest precip intervals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Ensemble mean is MUCH further south and east and looks like previous runs and the ECMWF. So, it pretty much looks like you can throw the 18z run out for the most part. probably some are still showing an out to sea solution..would love to see the individual members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 IMO, the make or break day for the models will be the 00z and 12z runs on Wednesday the 22nd, at that point we should be 72-84hrs out from the event. I wouldn't personally get too high or too low if the GFS timing is correct until either the 00z run on the 21st or the 12z on the 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Yes, after looking at the ensemble mean it is pretty clear that this run was garbage. The ensemble mean looks very much like the previous runs and the EC. probably some are still showing an out to sea solution..would love to see the individual members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 18z ensemble mean looks better. 144hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 IMO, the make or break day for the models will be the 00z and 12z runs on Wednesday the 22nd, at that point we should be 72-84hrs out from the event. Average surface cyclone modeling error at 72hours is still 150 miles. This doesn't distinguish temporal (being too slow/fast) vs latitudinal errors, so if we're near a ptype border problem, we might have to wait longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Average surface cyclone modeling error at 72hours is still 150 miles. This doesn't distinguish temporal (being too slow/fast) vs latitudinal errors, so if we're near a ptype border problem, we might have to wait longer. or you can go by the 12z euro to the 0z 72 hrs before this current ots storm and see its bout 400 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Regardless of what the surface may be showing, seeing a 990mb surface low on the ensemble mean this range is a very robust signal no matter you try to slice it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 When is that issue resolved, around 48 hrs? Average surface cyclone modeling error at 72hours is still 150 miles. This doesn't distinguish temporal (being too slow/fast) vs latitudinal errors, so if we're near a ptype border problem, we might have to wait longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Yes, that really is amazing. Just need it a little closer to the coast. Regardless of what the surface may be showing, seeing a 990mb surface low on the ensemble mean this range is a very robust signal no matter you try to slice it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 When is that issue resolved, around 48 hrs? It really doesn't ever get resolved, the errors just get smaller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 or you can go by the 12z euro to the 0z 72 hrs before this current ots storm and see its bout 400 miles Its going to need three perfect tracks then to make up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 For those interested, 18Z GFS flips ABE to rain for the heaviest precip intervals. I'm interested, but 35 miles NW of ABE. All snow up this way or do we flip as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Question: The Euro and GEFS show this storm occuring much later...156 hours. So, is this really a Christmas threat or is it more a threat for the day after Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The ensemble mean is what you need to be looking at, and that is far, far from a changeover probably all snow even in DC. The bigger problem remains that we would need the storm to come further north and closer to the coast for more snow. I'm interested, but 35 miles NW of ABE. All snow up this way or do we flip as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Next frame...awesome signal on the individuals this evening http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_18z/f162.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 John, 3 of these are just beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 from the indiv ens run looks like 1 supports the operational interms of track, 2 or so get the 850 line up to about phl or just a little south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Well, maybe 4. That is just one hell of a signal at this range. You have to admit that the chances look pretty good. Next frame...awesome signal on the individuals this evening http://www.meteo.psu...NE_18z/f162.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Its a Christmas threat IMO, The Euro is usually 12-24hrs to slow, I really can't speak for the GEFS. Question: The Euro and GEFS show this storm occuring much later...156 hours. So, is this really a Christmas threat or is it more a threat for the day after Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Question: The Euro and GEFS show this storm occuring much later...156 hours. So, is this really a Christmas threat or is it more a threat for the day after Christmas? How is it much slower? It seems faster on the GFS at 18z. Its been a 24th night to xmas day event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.