bluehens Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The low is onshore up the coastline? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 low now over lancaster, pa sub 984 850s north of nyc and into pocs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Shortwave trof axis as well as upstream trof and ridge axis all further west this run. That has to be a positive thing if we want a closely tucked coastal low RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Well, this got relatively ugly pretty quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I think the concern is one more of sleet or freezing rain vs changing over to plain rain which looks slimer right now. There was one GEFS run for PHL that changed the precipitation over to rain. Yeah...I'm not worried about a Lakes Cutter by any stretch but I could see this low hug the coast or trek a notch or two farther north, making for ptype hell around Philly and South Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 OMG. lets all freak out and become negative. don't take the run verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Check out what the GFS is doing over NE NV at 84... I might get snow from the same system twice I need to stop That's a dream of mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Philly I believe got squat, but NYC and western LI saw a good 3-4 inches before the PL/FZRA/RA changeover. Yup about 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Verbatiam we all would be dry slotted before a change over on the gfs.....really not buying that low track......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 low now over lancaster, pa sub 984 850s north of nyc and into pocs holy hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Well, this got relatively ugly pretty quick. not one ensemble member on 12z had anything like this solution..18z throw it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Nice snows for chicago this cycle. First run I've noticed that got them good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Nice snows for chicago this cycle. First run I've noticed that got them good. The bowling ball is further north which allowed for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Wow. The confluence and blocking retreat with their tail between their legs as this pretty much becomes an inland runner this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I think the problem is that our 50/50 is not there on this run, as it was in previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 the only thing that really bothers me is that this track is not hard to believe in a NINA time to wait for ensembles for any support...and then completely forget about this run in 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 this track is not out of the realm of possibilities...no real resemblance of -nao as the storm approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The bowling ball is further north which allowed for this Yeah the axis of heaviest precip as snowfall went from the OH River Valley to central Illinois up towards Chicago. You can see that the entire storm is further north and the trough goes negative way too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Not too worried. The tendency in the past few days' guidance is for this thing to slip east. Statistically we want a few runs too far NW, because the actual result is almost never the most extreme run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 At least NJ gets dryslotted, so we don't get THAT much rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The 18z GFS inland track is nothing to worry about (yet), but something to keep in the back of your mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Id rather have a cutter right now on the gfs because the euro ensembles and other models are further southeast at this point in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The 18z GFS inland track is nothing to worry about (yet), but something to keep in the back of your mind. IMO its alot to worry about - weaking NAO - La Nina - Just as much chance of a rainstorm especially south of philly and snow tgo rain points north rather quickly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Wow. The confluence and blocking retreat with their tail between their legs as this pretty much becomes an inland runner this run. We'd still get a few inches before any changeover-- I'd take that in favor of OTS lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Philly I believe got squat, but NYC and western LI saw a good 3-4 inches before the PL/FZRA/RA changeover. So, you saw the 18z run before it posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 2 Meter temps would help out http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_138s.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_144s.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_150s.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_156s.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_162s.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_168s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 A slew of options 1. Out to sea/grazing UK/GGEM 2. Major snow storm ECM/GFS 12z 3. GFS 18z inland/coastal hugger mix to rain back to snow. 4. seasons 54th 90 degree day at EWR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Take notice, I said "its nothing to worry about (yet)", at least not this far out. Could this scenario happen, sure, but I wouldn't get worked up over one run of the 18z GFS showing an inland track at 132-144hrs out. IMO its alot to worry about - weaking NAO - La Nina - Just as much chance of a rainstorm especially south of philly and snow tgo rain points north rather quickly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 DT.. the 18z GFS has as Much chanceof being right as the giants beating the eagles in todays game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 relax guys, its way out still. Look what just happened with the last storm. Like i said to one person last night. Take each run as meh till about 84 hrs. Its way out in time, getting super excited or bent out of shape in pattern like this where the models couldn't forecast right 72 hrs right last time is stupid. Is it fun to look at yes, but take it as that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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