NYC/PHL 12/21-12/27 Forecast Threats

[SnowGoose69]

The flow though is so blocky to our northeast it looks like the low can only go so far north. I haven't looked at the ensemble SD(s) on this yet, its still too early, think the overall baroclinicity should be better to get that specific gfs solution, but its still a heck of alot better looking than today's ever did.

Yeah, its not going to cut west, but I was posting last night that I feel the models may be too far south with the initial track since the blocking is not THAT strong if you ask me...I said I'd be surprised if this tracked to the coast much south of maybe the Delmarva, some runs have hit it to near NC.

[NittanyWx]

Yeah, its not going to cut west, but I was posting last night that I feel the models may be too far south with the initial track since the blocking is not THAT strong if you ask me...I said I'd be surprised if this tracked to the coast much south of maybe the Delmarva, some runs have hit it to near NC.

Southerly track is way more likely than the inland cutter (agreed, isn't happening) with this synoptic set up. For the low to bomb out as soon as it hit the water (like the GFS shows) there would need to be a good deal more baroclinity than depicted in that solution, IMO.

Brad Smith is a beast.

[Rainshadow]

Yeah, its not going to cut west, but I was posting last night that I feel the models may be too far south with the initial track since the blocking is not THAT strong if you ask me...I said I'd be surprised if this tracked to the coast much south of maybe the Delmarva, some runs have hit it to near NC.

There hasn't been as many northward adjustment tracks as we have come closer this month, but yeah its still 6 days away, have to see how quickly this current low gets out of the way.

[supermeh]

wave looks stronger coming onto the west coast at 60.

[SnowGoose69]

There hasn't been as many northward adjustment tracks as we have come closer this month, but yeah its still 6 days away, have to see how quickly this current low gets out of the way.

What stood out to me is that the Euro yesterday had the 500mb low in Canada sort of suppressing the track since it was a stronger feature than the GFS had it yet the GFS was only about 50 miles north of the Euro without the big 500mb low, that to me meant for sure it was too far south with the track if the Canada vortex was not as big of a player...I don't like the American models on SW flow or semi-SW flow type events and to me thats what this is, a slightly suppressed SW flow event....I warned everyone the NAM was going to be way south on it when it got in its range, the NAM is notorious for suppressing those more than any models, I remember when it had the 12/18/08 event tracking over DC 2 days out, in the end it was over NYC more or less.

[nzucker]

Yeah, its not going to cut west, but I was posting last night that I feel the models may be too far south with the initial track since the blocking is not THAT strong if you ask me...I said I'd be surprised if this tracked to the coast much south of maybe the Delmarva, some runs have hit it to near NC.

I don't think rain is a concern for NYC; we still have a huge above normal height field over Baffin Island (-NAO west) and the storm fractures off the California ULL pretty far south. We're also starting with fairly cold 850s (probably like -6C) and there is a nice arctic high coming into AK/Northern Canada that should pump some colder air into the CONUS as the storm is tracking across the country.

[eduggs]

If there is a place for Giants and Eagles fans to find common ground (or for Giants fans to find distraction so they don't kill themselves) this thread, as we witness a GFS blizzard run, is it.

[Rainshadow]

I don't think rain is a concern for NYC; we still have a huge above normal height field over Baffin Island (-NAO west) and the storm fractures off the California ULL pretty far south. We're also starting with fairly cold 850s (probably like -6C) and there is a nice arctic high coming into AK/Northern Canada that should pump some colder air into the CONUS as the storm is tracking across the country.

I think the concern is one more of sleet or freezing rain vs changing over to plain rain which looks slimer right now. There was one GEFS run for PHL that changed the precipitation over to rain.

[Rainshadow]

What stood out to me is that the Euro yesterday had the 500mb low in Canada sort of suppressing the track since it was a stronger feature than the GFS had it yet the GFS was only about 50 miles north of the Euro without the big 500mb low, that to me meant for sure it was too far south with the track if the Canada vortex was not as big of a player...I don't like the American models on SW flow or semi-SW flow type events and to me thats what this is, a slightly suppressed SW flow event....I warned everyone the NAM was going to be way south on it when it got in its range, the NAM is notorious for suppressing those more than any models, I remember when it had the 12/18/08 event tracking over DC 2 days out, in the end it was over NYC more or less.

I'll have to go look at that one tonight on the NARR. Gulp that was a nina year too.

[tombo82685]

sub 1004 low in south central ks/north central ok at hr 99

[SnowGoose69]

I'll have to go look at that one tonight on the NARR. Gulp that was a nina year too.

Philly I believe got squat, but NYC and western LI saw a good 3-4 inches before the PL/FZRA/RA changeover.

[NaoPos]

hr78, shortwave coming onshore. Looking healthy

[tombo82685]

a lot more ridging out ahead of this storm through 102

[eduggs]

I don't think rain is a concern for NYC; we still have a huge above normal height field over Baffin Island (-NAO west) and the storm fractures off the California ULL pretty far south. We're also starting with fairly cold 850s (probably like -6C) and there is a nice arctic high coming into AK/Northern Canada that should pump some colder air into the CONUS as the storm is tracking across the country.

I agree with you and would welcome a solution at this point that threatened a little rain.

That said, if we get the classic track we want, a period of rain on the east end and sleet in the City is always a possibility based on proximity of low-mid level lows. But this usually a worthwhile trade-off.

[tombo82685]

hr 111 has sub 1008 low in south central mo

[gkrangers]

That shortwave is angry looking at 102.

[eduggs]

hr 111 has sub 1008 low in south central mo

A little north of 12z position?

[tombo82685]

northern stream starting to get involved at hr 117, sub 1004 low about 50 miles south of st louis

[LVblizzard]

Classic setup for a lakes cutter, only problem is there's a big block in the way of that.

[tombo82685]

A little north of 12z position?

yea id say a good bit further north

[famartin]

Check out what the GFS is doing over NE NV at 84... I might get snow from the same system twice

I need to stop

[tombo82685]

hr 126 sub 1004 over central ky

[blazess556]

one difference i see is the ridge is a little farther west.

[tombo82685]

hr 132 sub 1000 low over cincy, new low forming down in nc. lgt precip all over pa

[kpantz]

Northern stream energy doesn't look as organized on the 18Z GFS at 00Z 12/24. Sure, it's a strong vort, but if it splits like that, it may have a tendency to nudge out instead of wrap up - sorta like carrying its own kicker with it. Time will tell. Just analyzing the output.

[tombo82685]

hr 138, new low forming in nc, 850 just south of m/d line...lgt to mod precip over the area

[Edge Weather]

50/50 is no longer there.

[tombo82685]

hr 141 low over dc, 850 north of phl up to ttn

[tombo82685]

hr 144, low over balt, 850 up to nyc

[mitchnick]

hr 144, low over balt, 850 up to nyc

OK, so there goes the consistency argument in favor of the GFS I guess