supermeh Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 LOL at the NAM http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_084l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Giggity goo... Impressive for that far out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 LOL at the NAM http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_084l.gif The NAM keeps showing a pretty intense Norlun trough event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The NAM keeps showing a pretty intense Norlun trough event only issue is no other model has really supported it yet, atleast that far south. The euro had it 0z, but backed off on 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 only issue is no other model has really supported it yet, atleast that far south. The euro had it 0z, but backed off on 12z. Yup, agreed. Not really going to bank on it happening. NAM must have some hyped norlun bias or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 A lot of us were confused I definitely wouldn't say I'm indifferent... especially with this storm. I'm going to be particularly soft spoken with this storm... the GFS depiction is a dream-come-true (for me too, not just you). I always guard against a miss because its such a big let down, and this time I'm gonna be even more guarded. But yes, I think the pattern is favorable... but that doesn't always mean there's a storm. An interesting study project I might undertake if I ever get back east would be to go back and see how often a favorable pattern DIDN'T produce. Then again, someone might've done that already. Ray, That would be a great study. Most studies/papers and recognition are done on forecast and observed events. I was talking to Mark the other week on how we did not hear a single word about how collectively we took wind advisory model guidance suggested event and not issue anything (which was correct). I'm waiting for the solutions to hold within 96 hours (my nina limit), but the overall pattern and even where the gwo is heading have much more legs than this Sunday one ever had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 only issue is no other model has really supported it yet, atleast that far south. The euro had it 0z, but backed off on 12z. The NAM has been pretty shaky lately. Its going to be time for a Tony golf score/how much snow we get post. (I'll put in the golf thread when I go). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I wouldn't. I want everything north and west about 100-150 miles. I'm tired of sweeping an inch of snow while folks south and east are digging out of a major snowfall. What happened to benefiting from living NW of the cities?? Last yr and so far this yr makes me wonder if I should of moved to Montauk.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 MT holly makes me smile .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --ONE DAY CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS, AND THE THREAT OF MEASURABLE SNOW STILL EXISTS. MOST COMPUTER MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING THAT THERE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM FOR THE COMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AND THEY ARE KEEPING THE STORM TO OUR SOUTH, SO WE WOULD REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE, MEANING THAT THE PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL AS SNOW. TIMING OF THE EVENT IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. THE GFS BRINGS IT IN EARLY, WITH MOST OF THE SNOW OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER, WITH THE MAJORITY LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SO WE WILL SPEND THE NEXT FEW DAYS REFINING WHAT COULD BE A VERY INTERESTING EVENT. FOR NOW, WILL HAVE SNOW MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN THE DAYS LEADING INTO THIS POSSIBLE STORM, THE WEATHER WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL. HIGH PRESSURE, DROPPING DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST, WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING OF THE STORM. IF IT DOES DEVELOP INTO A FULL BLOWN EAST COAST STORM, TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. IT SHOULD BE AN INTERESTING WEEK WATCHING THIS POSSIBLE WHITE CHRISTMAS DEVELOP. ENJOY!!-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Not to state the obvious, but there will be extra pressure on them to get this forecast right. I dont envy them. We havent been in a true white xmas scenario in a LONG time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'm serious, you guys should chill on the QPF this far out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 It's also reassuring that the shortwave will technically be on the CONUS in 72 hrs. yea well that is def gonna help thats for sure this weekend was a big let down thats for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 OMG at that football game-- I hope our storm doesnt go that way lol. Nittany-- putting out QPF is fantasy land this far out, but its ok if people want to get excited. Whether it works out or not is another issue altogether-- but at least let's let them have their fun right now At least half the fun is tracking the potential and possibilities. Reality can wait for later. I think most people realize the inaccuracy of the models by now, but that's not what this is about.... it's about enjoying the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The NAM has been pretty shaky lately. Its going to be time for a Tony golf score/how much snow we get post. (I'll put in the golf thread when I go). whats the over/under lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'm serious, you guys should chill on the QPF this far out... I agree it's getting ridiculous. We need to deal with how far north/south this thing is going to come across first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 whats the over/under lol Depends on the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Depends on the course. Someone should have told the Giants that, Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Depends on the course. pine valley lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Someone should have told the Giants that, Tony Wow the Giants lost, I turned it off at half time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 That was worse than that loss the Colts had when they led like 35-14 with 5 minutes to go a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 pine valley lol Ok 140 or less its 12" or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Ok 140 or less its 12" or more. hahahaahahahha....ok lets see what the 18z gfs spits out here.....o yea the tony model, aka fim, really doesnt have the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 the lack of a high over SE Canada/NNE has me worried that we'll see the christmas event trend inland a bit...I'm not sold on all white with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 hahahaahahahha....ok lets see what the 18z gfs spits out here.....o yea the tony model, aka fim, really doesnt have the storm Yeah, after singing its praises it goes and pulls that rock today. Before I get yelled at: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Wow the Giants lost, I turned it off at half time. On the last play of the game lol..... That was worse than that loss the Colts had when they led like 35-14 with 5 minutes to go a few years ago. That was the choke job of the year and the funny thing was before that happened, I thought it was their best game since 2007. They dominated both sides of the ball for 3 quarters. Coughlin said he still has no clue how they lost lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 the lack of a high over SE Canada/NNE has me worried that we'll see the christmas event trend inland a bit...I'm not sold on all white with this storm. Id rather have that then a miss to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 That was worse than that loss the Colts had when they led like 35-14 with 5 minutes to go a few years ago. that Giant-Eagle game was painful to watch. I'm actually a huge colts fan.. I think that Colts game you were talking about was when the colts beat the Pats in the AFC championship game. Sorry for off topic post. Back to christmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 the lack of a high over SE Canada/NNE has me worried that we'll see the christmas event trend inland a bit...I'm not sold on all white with this storm. The flow though is so blocky to our northeast it looks like the low can only go so far north. I haven't looked at the ensemble SD(s) on this yet, its still too early, think the overall baroclinicity should have been stronger to get that specific gfs solution, but its still a heck of alot better looking than today's ever was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 pine valley lol I would think Pinehurst Number 2, at US Open Spec is harder than Pine Valley. Re. QPF. Everyone needs to take a breather about QPF. It makes no sense to talk about it six days out, because models will overdo it or underdo it at this time and as we get closer, the accuracy of QPF will increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 the lack of a high over SE Canada/NNE has me worried that we'll see the christmas event trend inland a bit...I'm not sold on all white with this storm. That's a possibility and has me worried a little. However, the patter is favorable for the storm to go OTS rather than inland but this storm is being drawn up the coast. It would have to be pulled even more in order for it go inland. I hope that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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