atownwxwatcher Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I been hearing alot of this thread about the NOGAPS model, Can any point me to any paper where the NOGAPS has shown any skill in forecasting winter storms ? Thanks All i know is that the NOGAPS has a general SE bias and if its NW of the other guidance it can be used as a red flag...HM alluded to this last night in the 00z model thread.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 the 18 Z means are actually east of the operational run ... http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12132.gif http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12144.gif yea they are also further south in tracking the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 18z gfs ensemble mean. Hr 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I been hearing alot of this thread about the NOGAPS model, Can any point me to any paper where the NOGAPS has shown any skill in forecasting winter storms ? Thanks the GFS is playing into the NOGAPS know bias of being too progressive. Since the 00z GFS solution was quite similar to that model...it appeared as if the GFS could possibly be too progressive. At 12z the GFS slowed down a bit and the NOGAPS shifted NW along with the GFS leading confidence to their solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 per the the indiv ens runs looks like 2 maybe 3 hit the area good. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I don't think you can put something like that in "layman's terms." CCB is a result of differential advection, or airmass of different densities being advected over each other. What's crazy about this board is that i know more about weather than 99.9999% of my friends or anyone i know...but on this board i know jack about jack. Its really great to learn all this stuff...even if half the people dont know what they are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 What's crazy about this board is that i know more about weather than 99.9999% of my friends or anyone i know...but on this board i know jack about jack. Its really great to learn all this stuff...even if half the people dont know what they are talking about. Honestly, I don't know much about CCBs. I'm just piecing together whatever I find out about it. I haven't learned a lot about synoptic and mid lat cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Honestly, I don't know much about CCBs. I'm just piecing together whatever I find out about it. I haven't learned a lot about synoptic and mid lat cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Arent the ens always SE of the op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Arent the ens always SE of the op? yes, but it depends by how much. Like look at last nights 18z run. The op took it over i95, but the ens were off nc. 0z run came and the op went that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 My main concern right now is the placement of the ridge axis. It'll be difficult to get a major snow event here with the ridge axis over NM-western ND, but I suppose stranger things have happened in the past. If the ridge is that far east, this will really have to rev up in a hurry over the Southeast or it'll likely get booted out to sea. Right now the bowling ball idea isn't gaining much traction since the shortwave looks to get sheared apart and crushed due to confluence in the Northeast, so a phase is probably needed to keep the storm going and ramp it up in time to hit us. If I see the ridge back away west into western MT or even ID in later runs, I'll become a lot more bullish but as of right now I'm still quite cautious. At least there is a sharp ridge this time to cause the phase we need to develop a storm. But given the chaos in all the modelling recently, I wouldn't get excited for at least another 36-48 hours. Hopefully the storm's still there by then. As others have mentioned, don't think about QPF panels either. If the storm is developing rapidly and forms a comma head that slams us, it won't be a piddly 0.25" or whatever liquid. It'll be much more than that and those that get it likely get more than a foot. If there's no rapid coastal development and the storm slides east, then very few get much of anything, like the current storm. It looks like it might be another snow or no type setup as I think the westernmost it can go given the ridge out west is maybe just west of 40/70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 yes, but it depends by how much. Like look at last nights 18z run. The op took it over i95, but the ens were off nc. 0z run came and the op went that way. Closer in, though, the ensembles can suddenly agree with the OP more. I think the 18z was encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 It looks like it might be another snow or no type setup as I think the westernmost it can go given the ridge out west is maybe just west of 40/70. Basically you're saying that areas back here should just give up now? Not complaining, just asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yep....that's why at this range I have greater interest in ensembles - it is kind of similar to a p value in statistics in a way. The p value basically figures what is statistically within reason (.05%) chance of occuring and considers it 'statistically significant" yes, but it depends by how much. Like look at last nights 18z run. The op took it over i95, but the ens were off nc. 0z run came and the op went that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 here is the 12z ggem ens mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I also think we should get our expectations for HECSs down - last winter was very unusual. If a run shows a few inches for the area, I'll consider it a decent run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 That forecasted center jump makes me very suspicious of this actually occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It is just seems like it so dam hard to get snow in this area........i really dont have much hope right now for this event...perfect phasing and northern stream is to hard to achieve in la nina.....i know its early but.....i think this has fail written all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duality Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It is just seems like it so dam hard to get snow in this area........i really dont have much hope right now for this event...perfect phasing and northern stream is to hard to achieve in la nina.....i know its early but.....i think this has fail written all over it OT but, Happy b' day Tim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 OT but, Happy b' day Tim Thanks alot buddy......thats very nice of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It is just seems like it so dam hard to get snow in this area........i really dont have much hope right now for this event...perfect phasing and northern stream is to hard to achieve in la nina.....i know its early but.....i think this has fail written all over it PHL averages about 19 inches a year, so it's not THAT hard. There haven't been many Ninas with this kind of blocking, either. I think chances for snow are pretty good, but heavy snow chances are very much in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It is just seems like it so dam hard to get snow in this area........i really dont have much hope right now for this event...perfect phasing and northern stream is to hard to achieve in la nina.....i know its early but.....i think this has fail written all over it Agreed ... what else can you do BUT get sucked in to the 120+hour model threats during such a boring pattern though. 35 degrees, partly cloudy and windy is only so interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Agreed ... what else can you do BUT get sucked in to the 120+hour model threats during such a boring pattern though. 35 degrees, partly cloudy and windy is only so interesting... eh it's better than 60 and sunny imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 can we make a new thread for the 0z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 can we make a new thread for the 0z runs? I'm going to make one with a discussion and all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I'm going to make one with a discussion and all that. ok, sounds good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The models made huge leaps today in terms of potential. While I can appreciate the conservatism being shown on a 5+ day event, the signals are their for a major event. Stop comparing this to last weekends storm, the two setups are on completely opposite ends of the universe. I feel very good about this one and I believe that the 00z medals will begin converging even more. Still a long way to go...but moving rapidly in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Eerily familiar.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Eerily familiar.. What is it familiar with ? last weekend? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 That H500 map John posted is lovely, and it is going to be very interesting to see it unfold.. What the GFS is showing me is of a certain storm that has been named throughout the past two days. But we must keep our gaurd up about the potential, otherwise it would be easy to be a let down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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