KEITH L.I Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 only problem it's 18z..much stronger and a day earlier..we'll see what 0z has in store Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 lol no way is this solution correct with a horrible ridge axis like this Strongly disagree...the model makes sense given the ridge axis when the trough turns the corner. Not saying it will be correct, but it's plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 lol no way is this solution correct with a horrible ridge axis like this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 18z GFS solution for a storm that's more than 5 days away. Who cares. I'll be excited if we have nice solutions later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Awfully strange surface jump between Hours 126 and 132. The trough swings negative and pulls the low in as it bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I think it's clear now that the bowling ball solution with the possibility of a phase should be the solution everybody wants, rather than the trough digging to the Gulf Coast. The latter option may be better if all goes well (0z Euro last night), but the bowling ball is much less risky and it guarantees a white Christmas for everybody. Look at the 18z GFS QPF map. Areas that don't get hit by the CCB still get a very solid .25-.5" QPF, ratios help, and most importantly, it's on Christmas. While we would all want something like the 0z Euro shows, the 18z GFS is much less risky and it doesn't rely on timing to give a good snowfall and a white Christmas to everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 so it looks like we are rooting for a faster stornger s/w to keep the bowling ball going and not drop down to the beaches of the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Strongly disagree...the model makes sense given the ridge axis when the trough turns the corner. Not saying it will be correct, but it's plausible. i'd be more optimistic if the 500 mb map looked like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Here's a keeper...damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I think it's clear now that the bowling ball solution with the possibility of a phase should be the solution everybody wants, rather than the trough digging to the Gulf Coast. The latter option may be better if all goes well (0z Euro last night), but the bowling ball is much less risky and it guarantees a white Christmas for everybody. Look at the 18z GFS QPF map. Areas that don't get hit by the CCB still get a very solid .25-.5" QPF, ratios help, and most importantly, it's on Christmas. While we would all want something like the 0z Euro shows, the 18z GFS is much less risky and it doesn't rely on timing to give a good snowfall and a white Christmas to everybody. +1,000,000...im not for the coastal being dpecited on the euro. To many things can go wrong. Give me the bowling ball and drop 2-4 3-6 on everyone that would be the best christmas present santa could bring me, besides hott mrs claus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 i'd be more optimistic if the 500 mb map looked like this Yeah, that doesn't make any sense. If the synoptic pattern looked like that we would have to be torching either before or after the storm since 576 heights are into British Columbia. The pattern was completely different and that needs to be recognized. This ridge axis as advertised on the 18z GFS is fine and does it's job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Maybe a stupid question but what is CCB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 i'd be more optimistic if the 500 mb map looked like this Also, you are referencing the ridge axis way too late on your images. So it's actually further west when it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Maybe a stupid question but what is CCB? Cold Conveyor Belt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 +1,000,000...im not for the coastal being dpecited on the euro. To many things can go wrong. Give me the bowling ball and drop 2-4 3-6 on everyone that would be the best christmas present santa could bring me, besides hott mrs claus hmmm...or you dont want the coastal because you arent on the coast? Up in NYC/LI, bring on the coastal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 hmmm...or you dont want the coastal because you arent on the coast? Up in NYC/LI, bring on the coastal! no im on the coast, im right by phl, which i consider the coast still....the coastal just has so many things that can go wrong... i guess its high risk but nice reward....ill play it safe and take 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I think it's clear now that the bowling ball solution with the possibility of a phase should be the solution everybody wants, rather than the trough digging to the Gulf Coast. The latter option may be better if all goes well (0z Euro last night), but the bowling ball is much less risky and it guarantees a white Christmas for everybody. Look at the 18z GFS QPF map. Areas that don't get hit by the CCB still get a very solid .25-.5" QPF, ratios help, and most importantly, it's on Christmas. While we would all want something like the 0z Euro shows, the 18z GFS is much less risky and it doesn't rely on timing to give a good snowfall and a white Christmas to everybody. Right on!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 hmmm...or you dont want the coastal because you arent on the coast? Up in NYC/LI, Watch what you wish for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 why its very close to the EC in the same time frame. lol no way is this solution correct with a horrible ridge axis like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 hmmm...or you dont want the coastal because you arent on the coast? Up in NYC/LI, bring on the coastal! Wrong. The system depicted on the Euro has a different evolution than that shown on the GFS. We are not arguing for or against a coastal, but the Euro takes the shortwave/system farther south and slower,making it harder for the trough to go negative and turn up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 no im on the coast, im right by phl, which i consider the coast still....the coastal just has so many things that can go wrong... i guess its high risk but nice reward....ill play it safe and take 2-4 coastal are so much better...the wind and snow is a must...when those get crankin its surreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I would also prefer a more bowling ball scenario where most of us get a few inches of snow rather than take a chance on a coastal where many things can go wrong (rain/snow issues, LP location, inland vs offshore issues). The models are still shifting around way too much and a 1-2 day break from the models is probably a good idea for many, myself included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 hmmm...or you dont want the coastal because you arent on the coast? Up in NYC/LI, bring on the coastal! With a coastal there's a better chance of something going wrong, and it could miss us even near NYC. Hard getting a nice coastal storm for this area in a La Nina pattern. I'd rather have a more west to east storm that gives us a much better chance of having a white Christmas. Not as much potential for something truly big, but a better chance of at least getting some snow. Just give me a white Christmas! I don't want to risk getting nothing from a storm that digs too far south in an unfavorable La Nina pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 nah- that was the luckiest snowstorm of all time....pass on having to thread that needle. i'd be more optimistic if the 500 mb map looked like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Wrong. The system depicted on the Euro has a different evolution than that shown on the GFS. We are not arguing for or against a coastal, but the Euro takes the shortwave/system farther south and slower,making it harder for the trough to go negative and turn up the coast. yea i know i get that...its high risk, high reward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The NOGAPS being more NW at 12 Z was an indication that this was going to come NW ...At least in my personal opinion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 anyways, anyone have the 18z nogaps, curious to see what that shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I think it's clear now that the bowling ball solution with the possibility of a phase should be the solution everybody wants, rather than the trough digging to the Gulf Coast. The latter option may be better if all goes well (0z Euro last night), but the bowling ball is much less risky and it guarantees a white Christmas for everybody. Look at the 18z GFS QPF map. Areas that don't get hit by the CCB still get a very solid .25-.5" QPF, ratios help, and most importantly, it's on Christmas. While we would all want something like the 0z Euro shows, the 18z GFS is much less risky and it doesn't rely on timing to give a good snowfall and a white Christmas to everybody. the greater the risk the greater the reward....ill take the 0Z EC solution from last night...when was the last time a bowling bowl solution produced anything around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 This one will be painful if it fails given how consistent overall the GFS/Euro have been....the Mt. Holly discussion sort of seems to pump up the GEM, maybe my memory is bad but I swear that thing waffles more than any model I've ever seen from run to run yet they mention its consistent, the only storm I can clearly recall the GEM nailing big time was the 2/25 event this past winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 well if everything goes right we'll get both. Some light snow on christmas with a few inches by dark then get walloped overnight and all day Sunday. btw I noticed NYC gets about double the amount of Philly this run. coastal are so much better...the wind and snow is a must...when those get crankin its surreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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