tmagan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Has anyone tried to find analogs to the upcoming storm? I've come up with February 5-7, 1978. The upper levels look pretty similar to what is being modeled. However the sfc differs quite a bit with a miller B rather than the expected miller A for this storm. Thoughts? It would be mighty hard to ever come up with an analog befitting Feb. 1978. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I wouldn't say 1.75" QPF is out of the question this far out...but I would agree that its not a very reliable model but it sure is nice to have something to look at. Seemed last week seemed as if we would get one model per day to throw us a bone and blind us into thinking we still had a chance. This week their is much more of a signal something is going to happen. i agree with you that we could get that much precip if the potential of this storm comes to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 why are people laughing at the DGEX...sure it probably wont evolve like that but it has support from the 0z euro for a strong closed off 5h low off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Now watch, it will go back to yesterday's 18z and cut inland northern stream now involved at hr 99 this should be further west or a good run for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 way further north at hr 108 compared to 12z, northern stream big time involved this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 precip into all of pa at hr 111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 sub 1008 low over central nc lgt to mod precip about to dc at hr 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 GFS seems to be most unstable model ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 hr 120 sub 1004 over corolla, nc...lgt to mod precip phl south through dc...mod pver southenr delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 This run isn't even close to digging as much as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 sub 1000 low 50-75 miles east of mouth of ches at hr 126 lgt to mod precip nyc to dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 GFS is going to be a rockstar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Even though it's farther north, it's hard to say if it's the start of a trend...18z last night came way west only to back off at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Nice NYC hit at hour 135. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 nice hit at hr 135-phl to nyc sub 988 50 miles ese of tip of li Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Wow, it looks like a CCB developing from NYC-DC at 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Wow, it looks like a CCB developing from NYC-DC at 126. yea.. nice! and it's not moving all that fast either. Hey, I'll take it for sure. Order me that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yes please nice hit at hr 135-phl to nyc sub 988 50 miles ese of tip of li Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Ok, this thing just frickin pummels NYC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Unbelievable solutions on the guidance this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 even at 144, the CCB is still going strong.. wow, cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 1.5-1.75 QPF for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 These are some epic runs today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 It would be mighty hard to ever come up with an analog befitting Feb. 1978. True. I'm trying. I tried to find something in the 60s since that's the last time we've had a pattern similar to current one but no such luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Unbelievable solutions on the guidance this afternoon. yea.. this is good stuff... now someone give me the magic remote control to beam us a few days ahead in time... that would be awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 slightly north and west of 12z. I like this solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 yea.. nice! and it's not moving all that fast either. Hey, I'll take it for sure. Order me that. And its earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 lol no way is this solution correct with a horrible ridge axis like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Wow, seriously what the hell can you say, just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Awfully strange surface jump between Hours 126 and 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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