CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I wouldn't sweat it too much right now guys. Yes it could be further east, but anytime I see a H5 pattern look like that, it seems like the low would want to go almost nne or n...right along the baroclinic zone. It's 5-6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I wouldn't sweat it too much right now guys. Yes it could be further east, but anytime I see a H5 pattern look like that, it seems like the low would want to go almost nne or n...right along the baroclinic zone. It's 5-6 days out. Strongly agree. us up with the Euro ensembles, Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 What does that represent? A 64 percent chance of .01" or greater precipitation occurring or the 24 hour period ending 7 pm that evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Strongly agree. us up with the Euro ensembles, Scott. They take the low from near HSE..northeast to about 80 miles or so east of the BM. That's my best guess, but the trough is sharper on the 12z run, as compared to 00z. Kind of surprising because 00z was closer, but that's how it looks. I guess the trough at 00z went negative just a little sooner...that may be the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 FYI - if there is anyone you should listen to from the MA thread, it should be usedtobe/capitalweather, who is a damn good met. Trust me. I strongly agree. Wes is as objective (and just as good) as can be and he knows what can or can not be said at this forecast time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 It is difficult for me to buy into this storm just yet. It seems like the overall pattern is having trouble supporting a major system, at least in the Mid-Atlantic area, and possibly even northward. Too progressive. This storm is still a good bit away, and I would encourage a vigilant eye, but it is important to not hang on each run, even if like the 0Z Euro yesterday, a major hit is depicted. I don't know if the models even have a good idea of how the upper air dynamics will play out (perhaps a met can weigh in on that). Also, this does indeed look more like a Miller A. Miller B's don't come out of the GOF and reform around Hatteras. Again, in a La Nina, I would think a Miller A system would have little success in coming to fruition. There is not the same Pacific moisture to tap into like last year, and the overall pattern, to me, seems like it would favor a more Miller-B like setup, thus more favorable to places like NYC and north. Perhaps there is enough strength in the other pieces to overcome the La Nina (again, a met would have a better idea on this), but for right now, it is a struggle for me to buy into the hype. Since significant snowstorms in our area require just about everything to come together perfectly, an aligning of the planets as it were, it would be even harder in a La Nina to get that sort of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 They take the low from near HSE..northeast to about 80 miles or so east of the BM. That's my best guess, but the trough is sharper on the 12z run, as compared to 00z. Kind of surprising because 00z was closer, but that's how it looks. I guess the trough at 00z went negative just a little sooner...that may be the difference. I don't see the members just the web site, but based on the Sd(s) it looked like on the 00z run there were more members that were progressive than what the op displayed. (Of course what the op displayed it would be hard to be less progressive). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Just got a look at the Euro ensemble SLP individual spaghetti plots. They are impressive taking the low from HSE to the around BM, some west..some east.. A few are way east which probably skew the mean but there are also a few tucked in west. Awesome signal. Scott...thanks for the updates as always. I like what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I don't see the members just the web site, but based on the Sd(s) it looked like on the 00z run there were more members that were progressive than what the op displayed. (Of course what the op displayed it would be hard to be less progressive). Yeah the ensembles even at 12z were a little more progressive and further east. Actually, the 12z op almost matched the 00z EC ensemble believe it or not. I can't see individual members either unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I don't see the members just the web site, but based on the Sd(s) it looked like on the 00z run there were more members that were progressive than what the op displayed. (Of course what the op displayed it would be hard to be less progressive). Great AFD yesterday, I liked the way you ended it , many here should heed you advice, stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 All I know is that we're 100+ hours out and we're seeing the same model chaos we've become used to. Now IMO you're better off if you're 95-east, but it's far too early to jump ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 FWIW, the 15z SREF is less amplifed and slower than 09z...more in line with the 12z EC solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Christ some of you are real quick to write things off. Jesus its 5 - 6 days away. Just relax, let it do it's things. Give it till Wednesday at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Overall pattern hasn't changed much since last week - the writing is on the wall IMO the Euro is trending east and the GFS is too and more then likely this will be another complete miss for everyone except maybe SE New England...................another deal with too many moving parts that have to come together (phase) at the right time ...... Have you looked at the models???? The 12z GFS made a huge jump northwest this run. Also, the Euro only shifted slightly east and that was because it phased a few hours too late. The NOAGPS which usually is a progressive outlier also made a huge jump northwest at 12z as well. The 00z dream EC solution remains a NW outlier but not as much as some people make it out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Great AFD yesterday, I liked the way you ended it , many here should heed you advice, stay tuned. Thanks, but that sentence was actually written by Bob. At least I was wise enough to leave it in. How many chances/occurrences have there been to have it snow on Christmas in our lifetime? Its just like our favorite sports team at the start of the season, just give us a chance of making it happen. Well the chance is out there. Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 12Z KMA Hour 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 this group really is getting a little embarrasing..here we are 6 days before the event..both 12 z GFS and Euro have a moderate event for NYC metro for Christmas night and the 26th and we are all on the ledge..why?..6 inches isn't good enough?..blizzards don't happen every year..as a matter a fact between Feb 83 and March 93 there wasn't a snowfall over 12 inches..that's 10 years nothing!!!..accept the fact that with a strong Nina..moderate events are the best you can do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 this group really is getting a little embarrasing..here we are 6 days before the event..both 12 z GFS and Euro have a moderate event for NYC metro for Christmas night and the 26th and we are all on the ledge..why?..6 inches isn't good enough?..blizzards don't happen every year..as a matter a fact between Feb 83 and March 83 there wasn't a snowfall over 12 inches..that's 10 years nothing!!!..accept the fact that with a strong Nina..moderate events are the best you can do Agreed. Plus, Christmas is a day where you have millions upon millions of people traveling by land, air and sometimes even sea. If it dumps 6", it dumps 6". Don't be greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 If the pattern persists and some sort of suppressive out to sea solution verifies, then all we have done is kick the pattern changing storm (that was what it was on the 00z euro) can down the street. Eventually when the pattern changes (and it will), there will come an opportunity. Not a guarantee, but an opportunity. We have also not gained much forecast time today vs yesterday as the gfs/can ggem have slowed the arrival time of the low, so we have nearly as much of a gap between initialization and event time as we did yesterday. Nina deadline (for me) is within 96 hours (seems when these phased systems start getting unraveled), so we may have to wait til the 12z run on Wednesday for a clearer picture. Good stuff, Tony. That's why you have a red tag I'm I'm just a This seems to be what HM is alluding to in the other thread. If the moderation/blow-torch pattern for January is on the way, hopefully we can get a big event during the transition phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 12Z KMA Hour 132 unless that comes due north or even a bit NNW that would be east of the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 IMO the ECM ensemble means does not look bad at all....looks pretty much in a classic spot almost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 this group really is getting a little embarrasing..here we are 6 days before the event..both 12 z GFS and Euro have a moderate event for NYC metro for Christmas night and the 26th and we are all on the ledge..why?..6 inches isn't good enough?..blizzards don't happen every year..as a matter a fact between Feb 83 and March 93 there wasn't a snowfall over 12 inches..that's 10 years nothing!!!..accept the fact that with a strong Nina..moderate events are the best you can do I appreciate this sentiment. And I would gladly take a moderate snow event. I can see why people are concerned, because there is enough to suggest this ends as a near miss. But there's also plenty to suggest this is a legit threat... so it's an anxious situation. But some of us don't live in or SE of NYC. There are places not too far away that are currently progged to get a light event or less... hence the frustration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 IMO the ECM ensemble means does not look bad at all....looks pretty much in a classic spot almost Classic would be 150 miles west of that position. But we don't need classic to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 IMO the ECM ensemble means does not look bad at all....looks pretty much in a classic spot almost would love to see hr156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah...I think some people need to take a day or two off from model watching. The last storm has really done a number on a lot of people. Everyone is still in good shape for the upcoming weekend...in my opinion the most important thing is that the Euro has shown a storm in one form or another for at least the past 4 runs or so. It was not on board for this past weekend 144-168 hours out. This time its on our side which is a positive. No its not a guarantee...but it is reason enough that no one should be giving up on this threat yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah...I think some people need to take a day or two off from model watching. The last storm has really done a number on a lot of people. Everyone is still in good shape for the upcoming weekend...in my opinion the most important thing is that the Euro has shown a storm in one form or another for at least the past 4 runs or so. It was not on board for this past weekend 144-168 hours out. This time its on our side which is a positive. No its not a guarantee...but it is reason enough that no one should be giving up on this threat yet. agree completely...and I think living and dying by each model run doesn't help things one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 this group really is getting a little embarrasing..here we are 6 days before the event..both 12 z GFS and Euro have a moderate event for NYC metro for Christmas night and the 26th and we are all on the ledge..why?..6 inches isn't good enough?..blizzards don't happen every year..as a matter a fact between Feb 83 and March 93 there wasn't a snowfall over 12 inches..that's 10 years nothing!!!..accept the fact that with a strong Nina..moderate events are the best you can do Good post. I believe we didn't even get a 10 incher in that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Classic would be 150 miles west of that position. But we don't need classic to get snow. You take that 150 miles west and you would be talking just about on the coast and I am sure that would not be too good either. Considering this is about 5-6 days out its just where i would want it to be i would think.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Good post. I believe we didn't even get a 10 incher in that time. Agreed. But let's not forget that snow was measured in depth back then and not the way we measure it today. So today's numbers are skewed to the higher. Lots of events back then would most likely be much higher if measured with todays, wipe off, every 6 hour method. Especially the marginal events or the wet snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 You take that 150 miles west and you would be talking just about on the coast and I am sure that would not be too good either. Considering this is about 5-6 days out its just where i would want it to be i would think.... Well yeah, if you're talking about 5 day positioning of ensemble mean, then it fits the pattern for some classic storms. But it also fits most of the big misses. A truly classic storm track is much closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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